University of Kwazulu-Natal

Rand Forecasting Initiative Rfi Blog Infer S Best Of 2023

Bonisiwe Shabane
-
rand forecasting initiative rfi blog infer s best of 2023

INFER is pleased to share the Best of 2023 list, celebrating our most accurate and engaged forecasters from last season. The top five forecasters in each category have earned a special Best of 2023 badge on the INFER site – give them a follow and shout-out! A special recognition for the seven forecasters who placed top five in multiple categories, including: New for the 2024 season, we have introduced several badges for exceptional participation and accuracy. Check out the new badges forecasters can earn: Forecaster of the Month: Earned by forecasters who place in the top 10% on the leaderboard for a given month.

Star Commenter: Earned by those who make 5 or more comments in a month (rationales not included). Power Forecaster: Earned by forecasters who make 20 or more forecasts in a month. The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has launched a new series of questions on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), focusing on regional power balances and their implications for economic security in the region. A new question series on RFI assesses future virology talent and biotech funding levels that could shape global pandemic preparedness and biosecurity risk. The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has released a new forecasting topic to examine the policy and security implications of “mirror life,” an emerging area of biotechnology that has prompted both scientific interest and calls... As traditional human intelligence (HUMINT) faces mounting challenges, RAND explores how probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S.

national security. RFI is collaborating with crowdsourced forecasting platforms Glimt and Metaculus to compare differing views on strategic global issues. See initial forecast trends on the timing and durability of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. Last month, INFER hosted a kickoff event to welcome the newly selected Pro Forecaster cohort for 2023. The event featured a keynote speaker in the federal government who discussed how crowd forecasting can be used to improve rationality in government decision-making and integrate real world signals to solve public problems. The kickoff event reinforced the important role that this season’s INFER Pro Forecasters (“Pros”) play in relaying external signals to government stakeholders.

Pros earned their designation this season by demonstrating consistent engagement and high accuracy throughout the past season. Having an established track record of performance is necessary for the role that Pros take on as part of INFER. Besides consistently submitting forecasts and staying up to date on forecast questions, Pros provide well researched, thoughtful rationales for their forecasts. These qualitative rationales are used in INFER’s reports for government decision-makers to help them better understand the context behind the crowd forecast trends. Rationales help to explain why the crowd forecast may be different from internal government forecasts, or even why there might be disagreement among the crowd itself. The team aspect of the Pro program is another part of what fuels their collective value.

Pros are placed into one big team on INFER, and are also split into smaller sub-teams with question assignments, which allows them to collaborate and keep each other informed of new developments on questions. They probe and test one another’s assumptions and help to call out one another’s biases. This dedication to collaboration within question activity threads helps drive other community rationales and commentaries thereby elevating the quality of the crowds’ assessments. A spotlight on some of the challenges and work being done to integrate AI into the mission of the RAND Forecasting Initiative. How probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S. national security.

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect? Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? 💯 This month, we've been busy scoring questions from the 2023 forecasting season... and the results are finally in! 🏆 Check out last season's top forecasters in a variety of accuracy and engagement categories.

👏 Join us in congratulating INFER's Best of 2023 >> https://lnkd.in/g8h9gmKq #crowdforecasting Congrats to all the colleagues making it in the list! Figure 1. Pro Forecaster Accuracy Improvement During 2022 Season Major new releases and enhancements to the INFER platform this year also centered on creating a better experience for forecasters, as well as improving the experience for data analysis of our consumers. Here are some of the release highlights (you can also see the full list):

INFER has released the Best of 2022 list for its inaugural season. Which individuals were the most accurate forecasters? Who had the best participation? The most valuable commentaries? The top five in each category have been recognized with a special badge -- so you can follow them and send them a shout out! A special congratulations to the forecasters that placed top five in multiple categories:

People Also Search

INFER Is Pleased To Share The Best Of 2023 List,

INFER is pleased to share the Best of 2023 list, celebrating our most accurate and engaged forecasters from last season. The top five forecasters in each category have earned a special Best of 2023 badge on the INFER site – give them a follow and shout-out! A special recognition for the seven forecasters who placed top five in multiple categories, including: New for the 2024 season, we have introd...

Star Commenter: Earned By Those Who Make 5 Or More

Star Commenter: Earned by those who make 5 or more comments in a month (rationales not included). Power Forecaster: Earned by forecasters who make 20 or more forecasts in a month. The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has launched a new series of questions on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), focusing on regional power balances and their implications for economic security in the region. A n...

National Security. RFI Is Collaborating With Crowdsourced Forecasting Platforms Glimt

national security. RFI is collaborating with crowdsourced forecasting platforms Glimt and Metaculus to compare differing views on strategic global issues. See initial forecast trends on the timing and durability of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. Last month, INFER hosted a kickoff event to welcome the newly selected Pro Forecaster cohort for 2023. The event featured a keynote speaker in the feder...

Pros Earned Their Designation This Season By Demonstrating Consistent Engagement

Pros earned their designation this season by demonstrating consistent engagement and high accuracy throughout the past season. Having an established track record of performance is necessary for the role that Pros take on as part of INFER. Besides consistently submitting forecasts and staying up to date on forecast questions, Pros provide well researched, thoughtful rationales for their forecasts. ...

Pros Are Placed Into One Big Team On INFER, And

Pros are placed into one big team on INFER, and are also split into smaller sub-teams with question assignments, which allows them to collaborate and keep each other informed of new developments on questions. They probe and test one another’s assumptions and help to call out one another’s biases. This dedication to collaboration within question activity threads helps drive other community rational...