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Rand Forecasting Initiative Rfi Blog Infer S Best Of 2022

Bonisiwe Shabane
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rand forecasting initiative rfi blog infer s best of 2022

INFER has released the Best of 2022 list for its inaugural season. Which individuals were the most accurate forecasters? Who had the best participation? The most valuable commentaries? The top five in each category have been recognized with a special badge -- so you can follow them and send them a shout out! A special congratulations to the forecasters that placed top five in multiple categories:

Figure 1. Pro Forecaster Accuracy Improvement During 2022 Season Major new releases and enhancements to the INFER platform this year also centered on creating a better experience for forecasters, as well as improving the experience for data analysis of our consumers. Here are some of the release highlights (you can also see the full list): A spotlight on some of the challenges and work being done to integrate AI into the mission of the RAND Forecasting Initiative. How probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S.

national security. Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect? Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? This is your hub for the latest events and resources from the program, including research on the science and practice behind crowdsourced forecasting. Updated September 9, 2024We are pleased to announce that INFER, a crowdsourced forecasting program supporting U.S.

policymaking and analysis, is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Building on RAND's 75-year legacy of rigorous quantitative and qualitative analysis, RFI is a new forecasting capability to support policy analysis and decision making with crowdsourced predictions from RAND analysts and an external global... This collective intelligence generates predictive trends and early signals that help augment traditional policy research tools and expertise -- and empower decision makers to navigate and better understand complex landscapes. RFI aims to become the world's leading crowdsourced forecasting enterprise on policy-relevant questions. RFI remains committed to its forecaster experience, covering priority issues for policymakers, and delivering timely analytical insights that can support U.S. decision advantage.

INFER, short for INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk, was founded in 2022 as a new source of outside, diverse information for policymaking and analysis. The crowd forecasting program included a public site (INFER-pub.com) with the goal of expanding to government classified sites in the future. INFER was run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs, with seed funding from Open Philanthropy. Cultivate Labs will continue to support RFI. We look forward to this new chapter as RFI. We welcome your questions and feedback at [email protected].

The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has launched a new series of questions on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), focusing on regional power balances and their implications for economic security in the region. A new question series on RFI assesses future virology talent and biotech funding levels that could shape global pandemic preparedness and biosecurity risk. The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has released a new forecasting topic to examine the policy and security implications of “mirror life,” an emerging area of biotechnology that has prompted both scientific interest and calls... As traditional human intelligence (HUMINT) faces mounting challenges, RAND explores how probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S. national security. RFI is collaborating with crowdsourced forecasting platforms Glimt and Metaculus to compare differing views on strategic global issues.

See initial forecast trends on the timing and durability of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. Final scores from last season are in! Check out who made our "Best of 2022" list across various categories, including top of the leaderboard, best participation, and most upvoted users ➡ http://bit.ly/3jhulwE Congratulations to all! Want to see yourself on this list next season? Make sure you're forecasting on INFER! #INFER #crowdforecasting #leaderboard #bestof2022

INFER is pleased to share the Best of 2023 list, celebrating our most accurate and engaged forecasters from last season. The top five forecasters in each category have earned a special Best of 2023 badge on the INFER site – give them a follow and shout-out! A special recognition for the seven forecasters who placed top five in multiple categories, including: New for the 2024 season, we have introduced several badges for exceptional participation and accuracy. Check out the new badges forecasters can earn: Forecaster of the Month: Earned by forecasters who place in the top 10% on the leaderboard for a given month.

Star Commenter: Earned by those who make 5 or more comments in a month (rationales not included). Power Forecaster: Earned by forecasters who make 20 or more forecasts in a month.

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INFER Has Released The Best Of 2022 List For Its

INFER has released the Best of 2022 list for its inaugural season. Which individuals were the most accurate forecasters? Who had the best participation? The most valuable commentaries? The top five in each category have been recognized with a special badge -- so you can follow them and send them a shout out! A special congratulations to the forecasters that placed top five in multiple categories:

Figure 1. Pro Forecaster Accuracy Improvement During 2022 Season Major

Figure 1. Pro Forecaster Accuracy Improvement During 2022 Season Major new releases and enhancements to the INFER platform this year also centered on creating a better experience for forecasters, as well as improving the experience for data analysis of our consumers. Here are some of the release highlights (you can also see the full list): A spotlight on some of the challenges and work being done ...

National Security. Will The People's Liberation Army Invade, Blockade, Or

national security. Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect? Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? This is your hub for the latest events and resources from the program, including research on the s...

Policymaking And Analysis, Is Now The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI).

policymaking and analysis, is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Building on RAND's 75-year legacy of rigorous quantitative and qualitative analysis, RFI is a new forecasting capability to support policy analysis and decision making with crowdsourced predictions from RAND analysts and an external global... This collective intelligence generates predictive trends and early signals that help...

INFER, Short For INtegrated Forecasting And Estimates Of Risk, Was

INFER, short for INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk, was founded in 2022 as a new source of outside, diverse information for policymaking and analysis. The crowd forecasting program included a public site (INFER-pub.com) with the goal of expanding to government classified sites in the future. INFER was run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the Un...