University of Kwazulu-Natal

Rand Forecasting Initiative Rfi Blog A Look Back At 2022 And Where

Bonisiwe Shabane
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rand forecasting initiative rfi blog a look back at 2022 and where

Figure 1. Pro Forecaster Accuracy Improvement During 2022 Season Major new releases and enhancements to the INFER platform this year also centered on creating a better experience for forecasters, as well as improving the experience for data analysis of our consumers. Here are some of the release highlights (you can also see the full list): The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) is a new forecasting capability that aims to enhance RAND’s ability to understand and develop solutions for the world’s most important and complex challenges through the development and deployment... The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has launched a new series of questions on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), focusing on regional power balances and their implications for economic security in the region.

A new question series on RFI assesses future virology talent and biotech funding levels that could shape global pandemic preparedness and biosecurity risk. The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has released a new forecasting topic to examine the policy and security implications of “mirror life,” an emerging area of biotechnology that has prompted both scientific interest and calls... As traditional human intelligence (HUMINT) faces mounting challenges, RAND explores how probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S. national security. RFI is collaborating with crowdsourced forecasting platforms Glimt and Metaculus to compare differing views on strategic global issues. See initial forecast trends on the timing and durability of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine.

We just launched the RAND Forecasting Initiative — a way to expand decisionmakers' analytical toolkits by tapping into the collective, diverse insights of crowdsourced forecasting. RFI works with RAND researchers and sponsors to pose policy-relevant questions to forecasters and synthesize crowdsourced probabilities to (1) assist decision analysis processes, (2) create a “challenge environment” that encourages reassessing assumptions and conclusions,... Find out how you can gain decision advantage with our crowdsourced forecasts. ⬇️ https://lnkd.in/eFSYEU7s INFER has released the Best of 2022 list for its inaugural season. Which individuals were the most accurate forecasters?

Who had the best participation? The most valuable commentaries? The top five in each category have been recognized with a special badge -- so you can follow them and send them a shout out! A special congratulations to the forecasters that placed top five in multiple categories: Make a Forecast to Include In Our Reports For informal commentary about our forecasts and other analysis, be sure to visit our Blog.

Issue Reports are snapshots compiled for stakeholders interested in a topical issue that has been decomposed into a set of relevant forecast questions, which highlight the directional movement of that issue. Iran nuclear program: Will Iran develop a nuclear weapon? Supply chains: Will there be significant disruption to the semiconductor supply chain?

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Figure 1. Pro Forecaster Accuracy Improvement During 2022 Season Major

Figure 1. Pro Forecaster Accuracy Improvement During 2022 Season Major new releases and enhancements to the INFER platform this year also centered on creating a better experience for forecasters, as well as improving the experience for data analysis of our consumers. Here are some of the release highlights (you can also see the full list): The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) is a new forecasting...

A New Question Series On RFI Assesses Future Virology Talent

A new question series on RFI assesses future virology talent and biotech funding levels that could shape global pandemic preparedness and biosecurity risk. The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has released a new forecasting topic to examine the policy and security implications of “mirror life,” an emerging area of biotechnology that has prompted both scientific interest and calls... As traditiona...

We Just Launched The RAND Forecasting Initiative — A Way

We just launched the RAND Forecasting Initiative — a way to expand decisionmakers' analytical toolkits by tapping into the collective, diverse insights of crowdsourced forecasting. RFI works with RAND researchers and sponsors to pose policy-relevant questions to forecasters and synthesize crowdsourced probabilities to (1) assist decision analysis processes, (2) create a “challenge environment” tha...

Who Had The Best Participation? The Most Valuable Commentaries? The

Who had the best participation? The most valuable commentaries? The top five in each category have been recognized with a special badge -- so you can follow them and send them a shout out! A special congratulations to the forecasters that placed top five in multiple categories: Make a Forecast to Include In Our Reports For informal commentary about our forecasts and other analysis, be sure to visi...

Issue Reports Are Snapshots Compiled For Stakeholders Interested In A

Issue Reports are snapshots compiled for stakeholders interested in a topical issue that has been decomposed into a set of relevant forecast questions, which highlight the directional movement of that issue. Iran nuclear program: Will Iran develop a nuclear weapon? Supply chains: Will there be significant disruption to the semiconductor supply chain?