Rand Forecasting Initiative The Org

A spotlight on some of the challenges and work being done to integrate AI into the mission of the RAND Forecasting Initiative. How probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S. national security. Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect? Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

We just launched the RAND Forecasting Initiative — a way to expand decisionmakers' analytical toolkits by tapping into the collective, diverse insights of crowdsourced forecasting. RFI works with RAND researchers and sponsors to pose policy-relevant questions to forecasters and synthesize crowdsourced probabilities to (1) assist decision analysis processes, (2) create a “challenge environment” that encourages reassessing assumptions and conclusions,... Find out how you can gain decision advantage with our crowdsourced forecasts. ⬇️ https://lnkd.in/eFSYEU7s INFER (INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk) uses crowdsourced forecasting to generate early warning and signals about the complex future that policy and decisionmakers must act upon. It involves an ecosystem of forecasting platforms that aggregate the diverse perspectives of a global community inside and outside the U.S.

government. We support U.S. policymakers in governmental organizations such as the Intelligence Community, the Department of Defense, and the Department of State among others. Advance the forecasting capability of the U.S. Government through collective intelligence solutions to bolster decision analysis. INFER’s strategic goals are focused on delivering impact in line with our mission:

Prepare government stakeholders to identify, decompose, and prioritize the high-risk, high-impact issues of the future they need to understand and monitor. RAND has launched a research initiative focusing on under-examined security issues affecting the African continent and African diaspora countries. To advance this work, RFI released new forecast questions to elicit crowd views on issues related to African #governance and #stability to inform future commentaries aimed toward analytic units and policymakers across the U.S. government. Support this research by forecasting on related questions >> https://lnkd.in/gTS3TXGC #AfricanSecurity #RANDForecasting Fascinating.

Unfortunately, not my area of expertise. RAND and Cultivate Labs created a partnership in February 2024 to rebrand the INFER forecasting platform, and RAND launched the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) in September 2024 with the goal of becoming the world’s... government policy questions. As we end the year, we are pleased to share the progress these changes have made to set the groundwork for integrating crowd perspectives with RAND expert analysis to aid in high-stakes policy decisions. This review focuses on key accomplishments and the impact of this work.

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