Rfi A Toolkit For Crowdsourced Forecasting Linkedin

We just launched the RAND Forecasting Initiative — a way to expand decisionmakers' analytical toolkits by tapping into the collective, diverse insights of crowdsourced forecasting. RFI works with RAND researchers and sponsors to pose policy-relevant questions to forecasters and synthesize crowdsourced probabilities to (1) assist decision analysis processes, (2) create a “challenge environment” that encourages reassessing assumptions and conclusions,... Find out how you can gain decision advantage with our crowdsourced forecasts. ⬇️ https://lnkd.in/eFSYEU7s A spotlight on some of the challenges and work being done to integrate AI into the mission of the RAND Forecasting Initiative. How probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S.

national security. Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect? Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? RAND Forecasting Initiative reposted this I talked to the RAND Forecasting Initiative about forecasting and how I've been leveraging it in my job: https://lnkd.in/dCW27MkF

Lennart Heim is an associate information scientist at RAND whose research focuses on the computational resources required to support the development of advanced AI. Before joining RAND, he was part of an elite group of "pro" forecasters recognized for accurate track records. The RAND Forecasting Initiative asked Lennart to share insights on how he achieved top-tier forecaster status to inform our approach toward recruiting and training forecasters across RAND to participate in our new platform (RFI). A: It started with my interest in developing evidence-based policy recommendations. Someone told me about Philip Tetlock and the superforecasters. I realized that crowdsourced forecasting was one tool in the evidence-based policy research toolkit.

I went to a calibration workshop—which helps forecasters correct bias and sampling error, for example— and understood better how to apply the method toward finding good answers. We worked through questions like "how many cows are there on the planet?" A well-calibrated group will get pretty close to the right answer. Then I started forecasting with CSET-Foretell (which became INFER-Pub and is now RFI). CSET-Foretell was looking for forecasting ambassadors so in that role I met with a group of people every two weeks to work on developing forecasts together. >> Read the full interview on RAND's blog We're excited to be partnering with RAND on this.

With their reach and reputation, I'm hopeful we'll finally crack the code on widespread use of crowdsourced forecasting in the US Government. It will be a slog for sure, but we're off to a promising start with several internal RAND projects already leveraging RFI's resources which should create a nice groundswell effect inside and with RAND's... We just launched the RAND Forecasting Initiative — a way to expand decisionmakers' analytical toolkits by tapping into the collective, diverse insights of crowdsourced forecasting. RFI works with RAND researchers and sponsors to pose policy-relevant questions to forecasters and synthesize crowdsourced probabilities to (1) assist decision analysis processes, (2) create a “challenge environment” that encourages reassessing assumptions and conclusions,... Find out how you can gain decision advantage with our crowdsourced forecasts. ⬇️ https://lnkd.in/eFSYEU7s

The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) is a new forecasting capability that aims to enhance RAND’s ability to understand and develop solutions for the world’s most important and complex challenges through the development and deployment...

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