Rand Forecasting Initiative Infer Pub

A spotlight on some of the challenges and work being done to integrate AI into the mission of the RAND Forecasting Initiative. How probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S. national security. Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect? Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Hello Forecasters, My name is Adam Russell, and I’m the Chief Scientist at the University of Maryland’s Applied Research Lab for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS), a University affiliated research center funded by the U.S. Government. I’m reaching out to announce that Foretell, Georgetown CSET’s crowdsourced forecasting program, is now part of a larger forecasting effort called INFER. INFER, short for INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk, is designed to generate valuable signals and early warning about the future of critical science and technology trends and events. INFER will broaden the original mission of Foretell by empowering scientists, researchers, analysts, and forecasters from inside and outside the U.S. Government to have a direct impact on policy and decision-making.

The public portion of INFER (which replaced cset-foretell.com and will reside at infer-pub.com) is one of multiple forecasting sites to be operated as part of this program. The INFER program is currently supporting U.S. Government policymakers, and will be run by ARLIS and Cultivate Labs. Funding for this program has been provided by a grant from Open Philanthropy. Many of you have been part of Foretell since it was founded in early 2020 by CSET. Their investment in this research effort and the dedicated contributions and participation from more than 2,000 forecasters globally have made its next chapter possible.

INFER’s forecast questions will be defined by U.S. Government policymakers, and outputs will directly support future policy guidance and resource decisions. Initially, questions will focus on critical science and technology trends such as U.S competitiveness in AI, advanced computing, biotechnology, and climate change impacts. In addition to an expanded array of forecast topics, we’ll also be making investments in growing the Pro Forecaster Program, providing additional training opportunities for all forecasters, launching an array of enhancements to the... We encourage you to invite friends, colleagues, and anyone interested in contributing their perspective to advancing U.S science and technology policy. New questions have already been posted on INFER, and we’re eager to see everyone’s forecasts.

If you have any additional questions, you can reach the INFER team here. Sincerely, Adam Russell Chief Scientist, ARLIS INFER (INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk) uses crowdsourced forecasting to generate early warning and signals about the complex future that policy and decisionmakers must act upon. It involves an ecosystem of forecasting platforms that aggregate the diverse perspectives of a global community inside and outside the U.S. government. We support U.S.

policymakers in governmental organizations such as the Intelligence Community, the Department of Defense, and the Department of State among others. Advance the forecasting capability of the U.S. Government through collective intelligence solutions to bolster decision analysis. INFER’s strategic goals are focused on delivering impact in line with our mission: Prepare government stakeholders to identify, decompose, and prioritize the high-risk, high-impact issues of the future they need to understand and monitor. What am I being asked to do as a participant?

Can I invite my friends or colleagues to become forecasters? Who determines what the correct answer is? How often should I submit forecasts and how much time should I spend each time I submit a new forecast? What should I include in my forecasting rationales? Updated September 9, 2024We are pleased to announce that INFER, a crowdsourced forecasting program supporting U.S. policymaking and analysis, is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI).

Building on RAND's 75-year legacy of rigorous quantitative and qualitative analysis, RFI is a new forecasting capability to support policy analysis and decision making with crowdsourced predictions from RAND analysts and an external global... This collective intelligence generates predictive trends and early signals that help augment traditional policy research tools and expertise -- and empower decision makers to navigate and better understand complex landscapes. RFI aims to become the world's leading crowdsourced forecasting enterprise on policy-relevant questions. RFI remains committed to its forecaster experience, covering priority issues for policymakers, and delivering timely analytical insights that can support U.S. decision advantage. INFER, short for INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk, was founded in 2022 as a new source of outside, diverse information for policymaking and analysis.

The crowd forecasting program included a public site (INFER-pub.com) with the goal of expanding to government classified sites in the future. INFER was run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs, with seed funding from Open Philanthropy. Cultivate Labs will continue to support RFI. We look forward to this new chapter as RFI. We welcome your questions and feedback at [email protected]. This is your hub for the latest events and resources from the program, including research on the science and practice behind crowdsourced forecasting.

INFER, short for INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk, is a forecasting program designed to generate valuable signals and early warning about the future of critical science and technology trends and high-risk geopolitical events... Government policymakers. INFER empowers scientists, researchers, analysts, and hobbyists from inside and outside the U.S. Government to have a direct impact on policy and decision-making. The public portion of INFER is one of multiple forecasting sites to be operated as part of this program INFER is run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland, a University Affiliated Research Center (UARC) funded by the Department of Defense, in partnership with Cultivate...

Funding for this program has been provided by a grant from Open Philanthropy. The INFER program uses different forecasting platforms for participants inside and outside the U.S. Government. INFER-pub is what we lovingly call INFER-public, the forecasting platform open to the public. INFER-pub.com is one of multiple forecasting platforms targeting different populations inside and outside the U.S. Government.

ARLIS is short for the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security at the University of Maryland. ARLIS is one of 14 U.S. Department of Defense University Affiliated Research Centers (UARCs). ARLIS builds robust analysis in the "human domain,” focusing on three research areas: Human and Sociotechnical Systems; AI, Autonomy, and Augmentation; and Advanced Computing and Emerging Technologies. For general questions about the project, click the "Contact Support" button below or send an email to [email protected].

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