Rand Forecasting Initiative Rfi Blog Looking Back How Infer

Updated September 9, 2024We are pleased to announce that INFER, a crowdsourced forecasting program supporting U.S. policymaking and analysis, is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Building on RAND's 75-year legacy of rigorous quantitative and qualitative analysis, RFI is a new forecasting capability to support policy analysis and decision making with crowdsourced predictions from RAND analysts and an external global... This collective intelligence generates predictive trends and early signals that help augment traditional policy research tools and expertise -- and empower decision makers to navigate and better understand complex landscapes. RFI aims to become the world's leading crowdsourced forecasting enterprise on policy-relevant questions. RFI remains committed to its forecaster experience, covering priority issues for policymakers, and delivering timely analytical insights that can support U.S.

decision advantage. INFER, short for INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk, was founded in 2022 as a new source of outside, diverse information for policymaking and analysis. The crowd forecasting program included a public site (INFER-pub.com) with the goal of expanding to government classified sites in the future. INFER was run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs, with seed funding from Open Philanthropy. Cultivate Labs will continue to support RFI. We look forward to this new chapter as RFI.

We welcome your questions and feedback at [email protected]. A spotlight on some of the challenges and work being done to integrate AI into the mission of the RAND Forecasting Initiative. How probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S. national security. Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has launched a new series of questions on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), focusing on regional power balances and their implications for economic security in the region. A new question series on RFI assesses future virology talent and biotech funding levels that could shape global pandemic preparedness and biosecurity risk. The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has released a new forecasting topic to examine the policy and security implications of “mirror life,” an emerging area of biotechnology that has prompted both scientific interest and calls... As traditional human intelligence (HUMINT) faces mounting challenges, RAND explores how probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S. national security.

RFI is collaborating with crowdsourced forecasting platforms Glimt and Metaculus to compare differing views on strategic global issues. See initial forecast trends on the timing and durability of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. Figure 1. Pro Forecaster Accuracy Improvement During 2022 Season Major new releases and enhancements to the INFER platform this year also centered on creating a better experience for forecasters, as well as improving the experience for data analysis of our consumers. Here are some of the release highlights (you can also see the full list):

We have recently introduced two new features on INFER to help you evaluate and use crowd forecasts and comments with greater ease and precision. Within each question page, you can now find 1) an Analysis tab and 2) comment filters. Analysis tab: A new way to evaluate crowd forecasts Over the last few days you may have noticed a new “Analysis” tab on question pages. The Analysis tab enables forecasters and analysts to dig deeper into a question’s consensus forecast through two new charts: the Forecast Distribution and Forecast Updates. On some questions, forecasters are united very closely behind the consensus forecast, but on others, there may be wide disagreement, which can be hidden behind a single consensus number.

Now you can take a look behind the headline consensus probability to see how the crowd is positioned with the new Forecast Distribution chart. The chart shows how many users have forecasted in each probability bucket (e.g. if a user makes a forecast of 42%, that is counted in the 40-49% bucket). It also allows you to click a bucket to pull up all the forecasts and rationales from the users forecasting in that bucket. What am I being asked to do as a participant? Can I invite my friends or colleagues to become forecasters?

Who determines what the correct answer is? How often should I submit forecasts and how much time should I spend each time I submit a new forecast? What should I include in my forecasting rationales?

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