Rand Forecasting Initiative Rfi Blog Infer Crowd And Expert

Updated September 9, 2024We are pleased to announce that INFER, a crowdsourced forecasting program supporting U.S. policymaking and analysis, is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Building on RAND's 75-year legacy of rigorous quantitative and qualitative analysis, RFI is a new forecasting capability to support policy analysis and decision making with crowdsourced predictions from RAND analysts and an external global... This collective intelligence generates predictive trends and early signals that help augment traditional policy research tools and expertise -- and empower decision makers to navigate and better understand complex landscapes. RFI aims to become the world's leading crowdsourced forecasting enterprise on policy-relevant questions. RFI remains committed to its forecaster experience, covering priority issues for policymakers, and delivering timely analytical insights that can support U.S.

decision advantage. INFER, short for INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk, was founded in 2022 as a new source of outside, diverse information for policymaking and analysis. The crowd forecasting program included a public site (INFER-pub.com) with the goal of expanding to government classified sites in the future. INFER was run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs, with seed funding from Open Philanthropy. Cultivate Labs will continue to support RFI. We look forward to this new chapter as RFI.

We welcome your questions and feedback at [email protected]. Walter Frick is the founder of Nonrival, a newsletter that lets readers make predictions about tech, business, and the economy. He is a contributing editor (former senior editor) at Harvard Business Review, former executive editor at Quartz and has written for publications including The Atlantic, the BBC, and MIT Technology Review. RAND and Cultivate Labs created a partnership in February 2024 to rebrand the INFER forecasting platform, and RAND launched the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) in September 2024 with the goal of becoming the world’s... government policy questions. As we end the year, we are pleased to share the progress these changes have made to set the groundwork for integrating crowd perspectives with RAND expert analysis to aid in high-stakes policy decisions.

This review focuses on key accomplishments and the impact of this work. A spotlight on some of the challenges and work being done to integrate AI into the mission of the RAND Forecasting Initiative. How probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S. national security. Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has launched a new series of questions on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), focusing on regional power balances and their implications for economic security in the region. A new question series on RFI assesses future virology talent and biotech funding levels that could shape global pandemic preparedness and biosecurity risk. The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has released a new forecasting topic to examine the policy and security implications of “mirror life,” an emerging area of biotechnology that has prompted both scientific interest and calls... As traditional human intelligence (HUMINT) faces mounting challenges, RAND explores how probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S. national security.

RFI is collaborating with crowdsourced forecasting platforms Glimt and Metaculus to compare differing views on strategic global issues. See initial forecast trends on the timing and durability of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine.

People Also Search

• RFI Blog - INFER now the RAND Forecasting Initiative
• RAND Forecasting Initiative | RFI Blog - INFER crowd and expert ...
• RFI Blog - RAND's 2024 Forecasting Impact Overview
• RAND Forecasting Initiative - INFER Pub
• RAND Forecasting Initiative
• RFI Blog - RAND Forecasting Initiative
• RAND Forecasting Initiative | RFI Blog - Looking back: How INFER ...
• The RAND Forecasting Initiative Delivers Decisionmakers Unique Insights ...
• PDF The RAND Forecasting Initiative Delivers Decisionmakers Unique Insights ...
• Forecasting Best Practices: Q&A with Joseph ... - RAND Corporation