University of Kwazulu-Natal

Rfi Blog Rand S 2024 Forecasting Impact Overview

Bonisiwe Shabane
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rfi blog rand s 2024 forecasting impact overview

RAND and Cultivate Labs created a partnership in February 2024 to rebrand the INFER forecasting platform, and RAND launched the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) in September 2024 with the goal of becoming the world’s... government policy questions. As we end the year, we are pleased to share the progress these changes have made to set the groundwork for integrating crowd perspectives with RAND expert analysis to aid in high-stakes policy decisions. This review focuses on key accomplishments and the impact of this work. Before we close shop and take a few days off, I wanted to take a moment to reflect on the challenges, milestones, and relevant events that defined the year for our company + a... So let’s take a step back and reflect on what made this year what it was.

Our business model provides a hosted or on-premise forecasting platform to enable organizations to run their own crowdsourced forecasting efforts internally and externally. Alongside that technology we offer consulting services to make sure the use of our platform is optimized in whatever scenario it is being used, both technologically and most importantly, as part of decision making... I want to highlight 6 of our projects that I felt made a particular impact this year (and that I can publicly discuss!) Having its lineage in CSET’s Foretell, the RAND Corporation transitioned the University of Maryland’s ARLIS INFER program to create a new offering for government stakeholders in the U.S. and abroad. After a competitive bidding process, Cultivate was chosen to support RAND in their efforts.

The ultimate impact of that work will be over the course of years, but RAND brings a unique ability to bring RFI forecasts to a massive portfolio of their own projects which will flow... Already this year several projects have launched questions and leveraged results in their deliverables, and plans are to scale this massively in 2025. Here is a year-end review on the RFI blog if you’d like to learn more. And you can make an impact too by signing up to forecast. Launched in 2022, Cultivate runs a forecasting effort for Fox News called “America Predicts.” Amassing tens of thousands of forecasts each week from now well over a million people, Fox News editors place an... Readers use a custom “needle” interface to set a probability, and can also provide a rationale for their forecast.

I don’t know the traffic at Kalshi, Polymarket, and other large public prediction sites, but I think it’s safe to say this is one of the largest efforts to expose the task of probabilistic... A roundup of all currently running questions across Fox News articles can be seen here: foxnews.com/americapredicts The Alliance for Decision Education’s Forecasting the Future Forecasting Tournaments The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has launched a new series of questions on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), focusing on regional power balances and their implications for economic security in the region. A new question series on RFI assesses future virology talent and biotech funding levels that could shape global pandemic preparedness and biosecurity risk. The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has released a new forecasting topic to examine the policy and security implications of “mirror life,” an emerging area of biotechnology that has prompted both scientific interest and calls...

As traditional human intelligence (HUMINT) faces mounting challenges, RAND explores how probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S. national security. RFI is collaborating with crowdsourced forecasting platforms Glimt and Metaculus to compare differing views on strategic global issues. See initial forecast trends on the timing and durability of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. The South African rand has had a tumultuous year, with fluctuations against the US dollar keeping investors on their toes. To discuss the 2024 trends for the local currency, Rayno Nigrini, Foreign Exchange Structurer at RMB, joined CNBC Africa for a forex focus.

Nigrini highlighted the historical trends of the rand, mentioning that December tends to be a time when the rand strengthens, only to see a reversal come January. He pointed out that market movements in December may have been influenced by futures closeouts and profit-taking on positions. Option expiries at specific levels also played a role in guiding the rand's movement. Looking ahead to 2024, Nigrini believes the rand could continue its downward trend, potentially starting the year at around 18 against the US dollar. However, he cautioned that signals from the South African Reserve Bank regarding interest rates could affect the currency's strength. Nigrini suggested that if the rand loses its carry trade appeal due to interest rate cuts, it may weaken against the dollar, similar to the current trends seen with the Fed's policy.

Addressing the impact of geopolitical events and elections in 2024, Nigrini mentioned that while these factors are significant, the pace of interest rate cuts by the South African Reserve Bank compared to the Federal... He offered price targets for the rand at various points in 2024, projecting a gradual weakening over the year, with an estimated value of 18.50 by the end of the year. Despite the uncertainty surrounding unforeseen events like 'Lady R', Nigrini expressed cautious optimism for a stable 2024 for the rand. Thus, investors and travelers alike should remain vigilant and adaptable to potential market shifts in the coming year. Get the best of CNBC Africa sent straight to your inbox with breaking business news, insights and updates from experts across the continent. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services.

By signing up for newsletters, you are agreeing to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. I am honored and proud to have been included among the Best Forecasters of 2024 with the RAND Forecasting Initiative (with my 'ctsats' alias): https://lnkd.in/deSFWqRe Bravo Christos Iraklis Tsatsoulis , well done 👍 A spotlight on some of the challenges and work being done to integrate AI into the mission of the RAND Forecasting Initiative. How probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S. national security.

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect? Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? We are pleased to share our Best of 2024, a list recognizing forecasters who consistently raised the bar for accuracy and engagement this past season. Each of the category leaders have received a special Best of 2024 badge on their profile – make sure to give these top performers a follow! A special recognition to the ten forecasters who placed top five in multiple categories, including:

Ready to make your mark this year? The 2025 season has begun with a fresh new leaderboard, so be sure to start forecasting!

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