University of Kwazulu-Natal

Rand Forecasting Initiative Rfi Blog Rfi S Best Forecasters Of 2024

Bonisiwe Shabane
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rand forecasting initiative rfi blog rfi s best forecasters of 2024

We are pleased to share our Best of 2024, a list recognizing forecasters who consistently raised the bar for accuracy and engagement this past season. Each of the category leaders have received a special Best of 2024 badge on their profile – make sure to give these top performers a follow! A special recognition to the ten forecasters who placed top five in multiple categories, including: Ready to make your mark this year? The 2025 season has begun with a fresh new leaderboard, so be sure to start forecasting! The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has launched a new series of questions on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), focusing on regional power balances and their implications for economic security in the region.

A new question series on RFI assesses future virology talent and biotech funding levels that could shape global pandemic preparedness and biosecurity risk. The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has released a new forecasting topic to examine the policy and security implications of “mirror life,” an emerging area of biotechnology that has prompted both scientific interest and calls... As traditional human intelligence (HUMINT) faces mounting challenges, RAND explores how probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S. national security. RFI is collaborating with crowdsourced forecasting platforms Glimt and Metaculus to compare differing views on strategic global issues. See initial forecast trends on the timing and durability of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine.

RAND and Cultivate Labs created a partnership in February 2024 to rebrand the INFER forecasting platform, and RAND launched the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) in September 2024 with the goal of becoming the world’s... government policy questions. As we end the year, we are pleased to share the progress these changes have made to set the groundwork for integrating crowd perspectives with RAND expert analysis to aid in high-stakes policy decisions. This review focuses on key accomplishments and the impact of this work. A spotlight on some of the challenges and work being done to integrate AI into the mission of the RAND Forecasting Initiative. How probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S.

national security. Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect? Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? INFER is pleased to share the Best of 2023 list, celebrating our most accurate and engaged forecasters from last season. The top five forecasters in each category have earned a special Best of 2023 badge on the INFER site – give them a follow and shout-out!

A special recognition for the seven forecasters who placed top five in multiple categories, including: New for the 2024 season, we have introduced several badges for exceptional participation and accuracy. Check out the new badges forecasters can earn: Forecaster of the Month: Earned by forecasters who place in the top 10% on the leaderboard for a given month. Star Commenter: Earned by those who make 5 or more comments in a month (rationales not included). Power Forecaster: Earned by forecasters who make 20 or more forecasts in a month.

I am honored and proud to have been included among the Best Forecasters of 2024 with the RAND Forecasting Initiative (with my 'ctsats' alias): https://lnkd.in/deSFWqRe Bravo Christos Iraklis Tsatsoulis , well done 👍

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We Are Pleased To Share Our Best Of 2024, A

We are pleased to share our Best of 2024, a list recognizing forecasters who consistently raised the bar for accuracy and engagement this past season. Each of the category leaders have received a special Best of 2024 badge on their profile – make sure to give these top performers a follow! A special recognition to the ten forecasters who placed top five in multiple categories, including: Ready to ...

A New Question Series On RFI Assesses Future Virology Talent

A new question series on RFI assesses future virology talent and biotech funding levels that could shape global pandemic preparedness and biosecurity risk. The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has released a new forecasting topic to examine the policy and security implications of “mirror life,” an emerging area of biotechnology that has prompted both scientific interest and calls... As traditiona...

RAND And Cultivate Labs Created A Partnership In February 2024

RAND and Cultivate Labs created a partnership in February 2024 to rebrand the INFER forecasting platform, and RAND launched the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) in September 2024 with the goal of becoming the world’s... government policy questions. As we end the year, we are pleased to share the progress these changes have made to set the groundwork for integrating crowd perspectives with RAND ex...

National Security. Will The People's Liberation Army Invade, Blockade, Or

national security. Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect? Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? INFER is pleased to share the Best of 2023 list, celebrating our most accurate and engaged forecas...

A Special Recognition For The Seven Forecasters Who Placed Top

A special recognition for the seven forecasters who placed top five in multiple categories, including: New for the 2024 season, we have introduced several badges for exceptional participation and accuracy. Check out the new badges forecasters can earn: Forecaster of the Month: Earned by forecasters who place in the top 10% on the leaderboard for a given month. Star Commenter: Earned by those who m...