Nfl Draft Simulator Espn Analytics

Bonisiwe Shabane

-Nov 1, 2025, 10:03 AM

The 2025 NFL Draft is just three days away. After months of speculation, we will finally have answers to the questions surrounding each team's pick. Some teams, like the Cowboys, Buccaneers, Vikings, and Browns, are among those holding the draft hostage by not knowing what they will do. Meanwhile, teams like the Titans, Patriots, and Bears, where we have a better idea of what they may do. Despite that case for both instances, we still need to practice and, in this case, simulate scenarios for the draft. An exercise we want to do this week is to use all the best NFL Draft simulators at our disposal before the big day on Thursday.

We will use them to project what their algorithm has gathered in terms of information and projections leading up to Thursday. From there, we will then share those projections here as a first-round mock draft courtesy of the simulator. Today's tool is ESPN's analytics simulator. ESPN Analytics has released the NFL Draft Day Predictor, which powers the 2025 mock draft simulator tool. The mock draft simulator allows users to act as the general manager of their favorite team, giving them the opportunity to make picks in all seven rounds and conduct trades throughout the draft. The model uses expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc.

grades and team needs to estimate the chance every prospect is taken at each pick. Chances are then calculated based on recent historical accuracy of the combination of the above info, including the chance of a trade. The Draft Day Predictor will be live throughout the draft, providing the percent chance of being picked at each slot for every prospect. The 2025 NFL draft will take place in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Round 1 will begin on April 24, Rounds 2 and 3 will be on April 25 and Rounds 4 through 7 will play out on April 26. The draft will be broadcast on ESPN, ABC and the ESPN App.

There are 257 total picks in the draft. Kiper's favorite prospects at each position The Jets' win over the Browns on Sunday had big implications on the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Robert Deutsch / Imagn Images The Athletic has live coverage of Jets vs Patriots in NFL ‘Thursday Night Football.’

The New York Jets versus the Cleveland Browns. Talk about a stinker, right? While last weekend’s matchup certainly wasn’t the highlight of Week 10, it might have been the most important game of the week — at least in one regard. That game between two NFL bottom-feeders went a long way in determining who would win the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Funny enough, the team that benefited the most wasn’t even involved.

It was the Tennessee Titans, who were on bye last week. The Jets’ win over the Browns pushed Tennessee’s odds of securing the top pick up from 25 percent to 35 percent. Meanwhile, the Jets’ reward for winning their second game of the season was seeing their odds of securing the top pick drop from 39 percent to 26 percent. Of course, there’s still plenty of time for the draft order to get shaken up. Heading into this Week 11, 12 teams have three wins or fewer, with nine of them still having at least a one percent chance at picking first in April. As the season winds down, each week will have huge ramifications on draft position, and some games, like the Browns against the Jets, are much more important than you might think.

Probabilistic forecasts are a critical piece of the NFL draft game. Instead of filling out mock drafts, NFL teams opt to build models that help them predict how the draft could unfold. After draft week is over, some teams will even reveal the internal probabilities they had for players to fall to certain spots and how that influenced their decision-making. At ESPN, we do the same exercise. To create our Draft Day Predictor, ESPN Analytics uses expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs to predict future homes for the top prospects.

The accuracy of those factors in past seasons informs the model's outputs for the upcoming draft. Our model is updated throughout the predraft process and even live during the draft, which kicks off Thursday at 8 p.m. (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+). Using the latest outputs from the Draft Day Predictor, let's try to answer some of the draft's burning questions ... probabilistically. Where are Shedeur Sanders and Ashton Jeanty most likely to land?

How might the quarterbacks and wide receivers come off the board, and which sleepers have the best shot at sneaking into Round 1? Check out the Draft Day Predictor Use our mock draft simulator With Miami's Cam Ward the favorite to go No. 1, Sanders presents a very interesting forecast in our model as the second-best quarterback in the class. The predictor has cooled on the idea of the Colorado QB at Nos. 2 or 3 (currently the Browns and Giants, respectively), but those options are still possible; there is a 4% chance he'll go No.

2 and a 7% chance he'll go No. 3. Of course, the Browns and Giants need long-term quarterbacks, but the Draft Day Predictor also includes the possibility of a team trading up for Sanders in one of those two spots.

Nfl Draft Simulator Espn Analytics

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