Gold Outlook 2026 Has The Precious Metal S Rally Peaked Or Just Begun

Bonisiwe Shabane

-Dec 27, 2025, 8:35 PM

gold outlook 2026 has the precious metal s rally peaked or just begun

Gold is on track to finish its best year in over four decades, leaving the S&P 500 and global bonds in the dust. But after a stunning 60% rally in 2025, the biggest question on Wall Street is simple: Is the gold trade too crowded, or is the party just getting started? The latest World Gold Council outlook suggests the answer depends less on what gold has just done and more on how the macroeconomic regime shifts over the next twelve months. The precious metal – as tracked by the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) – delivered a 60.6% gain through early December, setting more than 50 all-time highs. But what made 2025 so remarkable was not simply the magnitude of the rally but its composition. We research all brands listed and may earn a fee from our partners.

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Money does not offer advisory services. Over the past 50 years, the stock market has produced the highest average annual returns of any asset class. But that wasn't the case in 2025. Instead, precious metals took the limelight, with gold gaining more than 64% amid heightened geopolitical unrest, a slowing U.S. economy, a weakened dollar and the Federal Reserve enacting an interest rate-cutting cycle. Those macroeconomic conditions resulted in aggressive central-bank buying while also fueling a frenzy in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by physical gold.

Gold entered 2026 at levels few institutions believed possible just two years earlier. An extraordinary 2025 rally driven by aggressive central-bank buying, persistent geopolitical tension, and expectations of monetary easing pushed prices to all-time highs above $4,300 per ounce and forced banks to rewrite their outlooks. This article consolidates the most authoritative projections from major banks and respected analysts, along with the relevant forward-looking forecasts from earlier institutional research, so you can track how projections have changed over time. The chart below shows real-time gold spot prices tracked by Lear Capital and updated throughout the trading day. Before gold accelerated far beyond expectations, several institutions issued more conservative targets. Some of these remain useful as reference points that illustrate how sharply sentiment has changed.

These earlier forecasts now read like the first chapter in a much larger price repricing. By the end of 2025, gold had sailed past $4,000, prompting an industry-wide reset of forward expectations. Gold is on track to finish its best year in over four decades, leaving the S&P 500 and global bonds in the dust. But after a stunning 60% rally in 2025, the biggest question on Wall Street is simple: Is the gold trade too crowded, or is the party just getting started? The latest World Gold Council outlook suggests the answer depends less on what gold has just done and more on how the macroeconomic regime shifts over the next twelve months. The precious metal – as tracked by the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) – delivered a 60.6% gain through early December, setting more than 50 all-time highs.

But what made 2025 so remarkable was not simply the magnitude of the rally but its composition. After a year that reshaped global perceptions of gold, the World Gold Council explores the various possibilities for the yellow metal heading into 2026. Investors should brace for continued economic uncertainty and financial market volatility in 2026, the World Gold Council (WGC) warns in its 2026 outlook — and those circumstances could have various effects on gold. After a blistering 2025 that has so far seen the yellow metal hit more than 50 all-time highs and rise over 60 percent, the WGC says 2026 could deliver anything from a modest rally... The year was a contest between bullish forces tied to slowing global growth and persistent political instability, and bearish pressures that could emerge if the Trump administration successfully lifts US economic performance. For now, the WGC says the gold price “broadly reflects macroeconomic consensus expectations,” suggesting it could remain rangebound, although factors like softer growth and geopolitical turmoil are likely to provide support.

At Morgan Stanley, we lead with exceptional ideas. Across all our businesses, we offer keen insight on today's most critical issues. Learn from our industry leaders about how to manage your wealth and help meet your personal financial goals. At Morgan Stanley, we lead with exceptional ideas. Across all our businesses, we offer keen insight on today's most critical issues. From volatility and geopolitics to economic trends and investment outlooks, stay informed on the key developments shaping today's markets.

At Morgan Stanley, we lead with exceptional ideas. Across all our businesses, we offer keen insight on today's most critical issues. Our mission is to connect the world with news, data and education that makes the path to financial prosperity easier for everyone, everyday. Gold is on track to finish its best year in over four decades, leaving the S&P 500 and global bonds in the dust. But after a stunning 60% rally in 2025, the biggest question on Wall Street is simple: Is the gold trade too crowded, or is the party just getting started? The latest World Gold Council outlook suggests the answer depends less on what gold has just done and more on how the macroeconomic regime shifts over the next twelve months.

The precious metal – as tracked by the SPDR Gold Shares(NYSE:GLD) – delivered a 60.6% gain through early December, setting more than 50 all-time highs. This blog post is part of a special series based on the October 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook, a flagship report published by the World Bank. This series features concise summaries of commodity-specific sections extracted from the report. Explore the full report here. Precious metal prices are projected to reach new all-time highs in 2026, following an estimated 41 percent increase this year. Gold briefly exceeded $4,300 per ounce and silver touched $54 per ounce in October before easing back, while platinum has also posted solid gains this year.

Gold is on track to record fresh highs next year, supported by safe-haven demand, including continued central bank buying. Silver prices are expected to rise further, driven by growing industrial demand from renewable energy technologies alongside safe-haven interest, while tight supply conditions are likely to continue supporting platinum prices. However, uncertainty around the price outlook remains significant. A renewed escalation in geopolitical tensions or heightened policy uncertainty could push gold prices above current projections, while weaker industrial activity could place downward pressure on silver and platinum, pulling their prices below baseline... Gold prices climbed to record highs in early October before easing in recent weeks. The surge was fueled by strong safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical tensions and broader economic concerns, helped by a weaker U.S.

dollar and U.S. monetary easing. Gold demand rose 10 percent in the first three quarters of 2025 (y/y), led by strong investment inflows, including from gold-backed ETFs and continued (though moderating) central bank purchases. Prices are set to rise by around 42 percent in 2025, marking the strongest annual gain since the late 1970s. Both the 1979-80 surge and the current rally have occurred alongside heightened geopolitical tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar.

The current rally is distinguished by record central bank buying, with purchases since 2022 more than twice their 2015–19 average. Central banks’ share of total demand rose to nearly 25 percent in 2024, compared with 12 percent in 2015-19. Price gains are expected to continue into 2026, albeit at a slower pace, as official sector demand and investor interest gradually moderate. Silver prices surged to record highs of around $54 per ounce in mid-October, supported by safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and firm industrial demand. Prices have since pulled back somewhat, reflecting a broader market correction and easing concerns about supply constraints. Looking ahead, demand is expected to continue rising, driven both by safe-haven buying and growing use in renewable energy technologies and semiconductor production, as industrial uses account for more than half of total demand.

Supply, however, is expected to expand only gradually over the forecast horizon, with modest increases in mining output and recycling. On balance, demand is expected to outpace supply, pushing prices up by roughly 34 percent in 2025 and an additional 8 percent in 2026. Platinum prices have surged this year as production has dropped to multi-year lows. Demand is expected to increase gradually, although growth in automotive use—mainly for catalytic converters, which account for about 40 percent of total demand—is likely to remain subdued as EV adoption advances. Industrial and jewelry demand is also projected to post only modest gains. Supply is projected to recover modestly from recent lows, with increases in mining output in South Africa—the world’s largest producer—and recycling output from the auto and jewelry sectors.

Even so, supply is still expected to fall short of demand, keeping market conditions tight. After rising by an expected 29 percent in 2025 (y/y), platinum prices are projected to increase by around 4 percent in 2026.

Gold Outlook 2026 Has The Precious Metal S Rally Peaked Or Just Begun

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