University of Kwazulu-Natal

Gold Outlook 2026 Push Ahead Or Pull Back Seeking Alpha

Bonisiwe Shabane
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gold outlook 2026 push ahead or pull back seeking alpha

Gold has experienced a remarkable 2025, achieving over 50 all-time highs and returning over 60%.1 This performance has been supported by a combination of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker US dollar, and... Both investors and central banks have increased their allocations to gold, seeking diversification and stability. Looking to 2026, the outlook is shaped by ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty. The gold price broadly reflects macroeconomic consensus expectations and may remain rangebound if current conditions persist. However, taking cues from this year, 2026 will likely continue to surprise. If economic growth slows and interest rates fall further, gold could see moderate gains.

In a more severe downturn marked by rising global risks, gold could perform strongly. Conversely, a successful outcome from policies set by the Trump administration would accelerate economic growth and reduce geopolitical risk, leading to higher rates and a stronger US dollar, pushing gold lower. Additional factors, such as central bank demand and gold recycling trends, could also influence the market. Most importantly, gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier and source of stability remains key amid continued market volatility. Login or register to read the text, view charts and download the files.. Registration is free, quick and easy.

It gives you access to all downloads on this website. (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price

(What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today. Following an unprecedented year of uncertainties due to world events and fluctuating economic trends, the upcoming year’s gold outlook develops interestingly. The World Gold Council anticipates a dynamic push-pull scenario for the precious metal in 2026.

On the global scale, geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and an evolving market for digital assets can potentially revitalize gold’s appeal as the ideal hedge, pushing its value towards a swift climb. Conversely, global recovery strides post-pandemic and a transition to greener economies can exert a pull effect, potentially arresting the gold markets’ ascension. Thus, while gold generally stands as a resilient asset, its journey in 2026 will undoubtedly be one of intriguing twists and turns. A continued focus on technology’s role in the gold trade, from blockchain-powered provenance tracking to AI-driven prediction tools, will also color the narrative in 2026. Likewise, the continuing dialogue on ethical gold mining, matching global demand while maintaining sustainability, continues to be at the forefront of discourse. Serialized discussions on these topics can be expected from the World Gold Council in the coming year, all pointing towards a comprehensive reflection of the gold market’s potential dynamics.

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked * Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Experts are calling for gold to push toward US$5,000 in 2026 as trade tensions and US monetary policy changes drive safe-haven demand. Gold has reached once-unthinkable prices in 2025, gaining over 60 percent by early December. Looking ahead to 2026, experts believe the major themes that carried the gold price to new heights this year will continue to underwrite its trajectory in the months ahead, boosting the metal even further.

What are the top trends shaping the gold market, and what should investors expect in the new year? US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies have injected a high level of volatility into a world economy that was already reeling from ongoing regional conflicts. The price of gold is forecast by Goldman Sachs Research to rise 6% through the middle of 2026 (as of September 24), underpinned by fresh demand from key groups of buyers who have contributed... The precious metal has risen more than 40% in 2025 and is on pace for its third-straight year of double-digits gains. The gold price is predicted to rise to $4,000 per troy ounce by the middle of next year (up from $3,772 on September 24), Goldman Sachs Research analyst Lina Thomas writes in the team’s... Their gold price forecast is driven by strong structural demand from central banks and easing from the US Federal Reserve (which supports ETF demand for gold).

Buyers of gold fall into two broad groups, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Conviction buyers tend to purchase the yellow metal consistently, regardless of the price, and based on their view on the economy or to hedge risk. These include central banks, exchange-traded funds, and speculators. Their thesis-driven flows set the price direction. As a rule of thumb, every 100 tonnes of net purchases by these conviction holders corresponds to a 1.7% rise in the gold price. By contrast, opportunistic buyers such as households in emerging markets step in when they believe the price is right.

They may provide a floor under prices on the way down and resistance on the way up. After Gold’s remarkable 2025, achieving over 50 all-time highs and returning over 60%, the World Gold Council predicts 2026 be shaped by ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty. Market OutlooksAlternative AssetsGoldReal Assets

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