Gold Price Forecast Rally Expected To Accelerate Into 2026 Morgan

Bonisiwe Shabane

-Dec 27, 2025, 6:26 PM

gold price forecast rally expected to accelerate into 2026 morgan

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At Morgan Stanley, we lead with exceptional ideas. Across all our businesses, we offer keen insight on today's most critical issues. Gold prices surged in 2025 due to trade tensions, central bank and ETF demand. What is the gold price forecast for 2026 and beyond? Gold entered 2026 at levels few institutions believed possible just two years earlier. An extraordinary 2025 rally driven by aggressive central-bank buying, persistent geopolitical tension, and expectations of monetary easing pushed prices to all-time highs above $4,300 per ounce and forced banks to rewrite their outlooks.

This article consolidates the most authoritative projections from major banks and respected analysts, along with the relevant forward-looking forecasts from earlier institutional research, so you can track how projections have changed over time. The chart below shows real-time gold spot prices tracked by Lear Capital and updated throughout the trading day. Before gold accelerated far beyond expectations, several institutions issued more conservative targets. Some of these remain useful as reference points that illustrate how sharply sentiment has changed. These earlier forecasts now read like the first chapter in a much larger price repricing. By the end of 2025, gold had sailed past $4,000, prompting an industry-wide reset of forward expectations.

Oct 31 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley said on Friday that gold prices had potential to climb to $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026, citing strong physical demand by exchange-traded funds and central banks as the... "Recent price action took gold well into 'overbought' territory on an RSI (Relative Strength Index) basis, but the recent correction has taken it to a healthier level, likely cleaning up positioning," Morgan Stanley said... The bank expects continued buying of gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as interest rates decline, alongside steady purchases by central banks, albeit at a slower pace and stabilization in jewelry demand. However, Morgan Stanley cautioned that downside risks remain, including potential price volatility that could prompt investors to shift toward other asset classes or decisions by central banks to reduce gold reserves. Gold prices have surged over 54% year-to-date, hitting multiple record highs in 2025, including the latest peak of $4,381.21 per ounce on October 20, but have retreated more than 8% since then. We research all brands listed and may earn a fee from our partners.

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Money does not offer advisory services. Over the past 50 years, the stock market has produced the highest average annual returns of any asset class. But that wasn't the case in 2025. Instead, precious metals took the limelight, with gold gaining more than 64% amid heightened geopolitical unrest, a slowing U.S. economy, a weakened dollar and the Federal Reserve enacting an interest rate-cutting cycle. Those macroeconomic conditions resulted in aggressive central-bank buying while also fueling a frenzy in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by physical gold.

© 2009-2025 FORECK.INFO All rights reserved Morgan Stanley Gold Price Forecast for 2026: Target of $4,500 per ounce by mid-next year The gold price ended the week at $4,219.53 per ounce, gaining 1.35% and extending a strong rally that has kept the metal in a firm uptrend since late November. Despite elevated volatility, prices held their ground, with last week’s trading range spanning $4,074–$4,218, as investors renewed their interest in precious metals. Morgan Stanley describes gold as a core asset within the commodities space and expects the supportive macroeconomic backdrop to remain in place through at least 2026. The bank’s analysts point to a clear shift in investor behaviour during 2025.

After four consecutive years of net outflows, gold-backed ETFs have moved back into accumulation, recording their largest increase in holdings since 2020. The gold market has recently witnessed a robust performance, with prices ending last week at $4,219.53 per ounce, marking a 1.35 percent increase. This upward trend is increasingly attracting the attention of investors who have continued to explore potential opportunities within the precious metals sector. Notably, Morgan Stanley has identified gold as their top pick in the commodities complex, underpinning their optimistic forecast for 2026, where they target a price of $4,500 by mid-next year. As investors navigate through a fluctuating economic landscape, the recent pullback in gold prices has been seen as a strategic buying opportunity. The volatility experienced last week, with price fluctuations ranging from $4,074 to $4,218, has been attributed to a broader shift in investor sentiment.

Amidst this backdrop, there has been a notable rotation back into precious metals, reaffirming their safe-haven status, especially during uncertain economic times. Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley’s forecast for gold price trajectory remains positive, primarily supported by anticipated economic conditions leading into 2026. The firm believes that the fundamentals driving demand for gold will foster a conducive atmosphere for price advancements. Factors such as inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and a possible weakening of the U.S. dollar continue to play pivotal roles in influencing investor behavior. As a result, the outlook for gold remains bullish, with analysts and investors alike keeping a close watch on economic indicators that may impact this precious metal's valuation.

In conclusion, as Morgan Stanley continues to advocate for gold as a key asset within the commodities space, their forecast of a price target reaching $4,500 reflects a growing confidence in the metal’s performance... Investors are encouraged to remain vigilant and consider gold not merely as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty, but also as a promising investment opportunity as we advance closer to 2026. PLEASE NOTE: The value of precious metals may fall as well as rise. Historical trends do not guarantee future price moves. Nothing on Fides Global Bullion LLC''s websites nor in any of its communications constitutes investment advice. You should consider seeking professional advice to determine if owning bullion is right for you.

Gold Price Forecast Rally Expected To Accelerate Into 2026 Morgan

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