Gold Could Surge As High As 4 250 Next Yr Amid Uncertainty Over Fed

Bonisiwe Shabane

-Dec 27, 2025, 8:17 PM

gold could surge as high as 4 250 next yr amid uncertainty over fed

(Yahoo!Finance) - Gold (GC=F) prices, already at record levels, are likely headed higher as rate cut expectations grow and Fed independence comes into question, according to JPMorgan analysts. On Wednesday, gold futures touched a record high north of $3,620 per troy ounce while immediate delivery bullion rose to as much as $3,546, also a new high. JPMorgan analysts forecast gold prices will rise further this year as investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates starting in September. Gold becomes more attractive to investors as falling rates reduce its competition with yield-bearing assets. "US Federal Reserve rate cuts in-line or exceeding expectations should catalyse further gold ETF inflows and thus drive gold prices to their year-end forecast of ~$3,675/oz," JPMorgan analyst Patrick Jones wrote in a note... From there, gold should reach $4,000 by the second quarter of next year and surge to $4,250 by the end of 2026, especially if the Trump administration's attempt to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook...

Cook's departure could have wider implications for reshaping the central bank, the analysts said. "We believe any potential weakening of the US Federal Reserve's independence could have significant implications for long-term gold prices," Jones wrote. At Morgan Stanley, we lead with exceptional ideas. Across all our businesses, we offer keen insight on today's most critical issues. Learn from our industry leaders about how to manage your wealth and help meet your personal financial goals. At Morgan Stanley, we lead with exceptional ideas.

Across all our businesses, we offer keen insight on today's most critical issues. From volatility and geopolitics to economic trends and investment outlooks, stay informed on the key developments shaping today's markets. At Morgan Stanley, we lead with exceptional ideas. Across all our businesses, we offer keen insight on today's most critical issues. This blog post is part of a special series based on the October 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook, a flagship report published by the World Bank. This series features concise summaries of commodity-specific sections extracted from the report.

Explore the full report here. Precious metal prices are projected to reach new all-time highs in 2026, following an estimated 41 percent increase this year. Gold briefly exceeded $4,300 per ounce and silver touched $54 per ounce in October before easing back, while platinum has also posted solid gains this year. Gold is on track to record fresh highs next year, supported by safe-haven demand, including continued central bank buying. Silver prices are expected to rise further, driven by growing industrial demand from renewable energy technologies alongside safe-haven interest, while tight supply conditions are likely to continue supporting platinum prices. However, uncertainty around the price outlook remains significant.

A renewed escalation in geopolitical tensions or heightened policy uncertainty could push gold prices above current projections, while weaker industrial activity could place downward pressure on silver and platinum, pulling their prices below baseline... Gold prices climbed to record highs in early October before easing in recent weeks. The surge was fueled by strong safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical tensions and broader economic concerns, helped by a weaker U.S. dollar and U.S. monetary easing. Gold demand rose 10 percent in the first three quarters of 2025 (y/y), led by strong investment inflows, including from gold-backed ETFs and continued (though moderating) central bank purchases.

Prices are set to rise by around 42 percent in 2025, marking the strongest annual gain since the late 1970s. Both the 1979-80 surge and the current rally have occurred alongside heightened geopolitical tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar. The current rally is distinguished by record central bank buying, with purchases since 2022 more than twice their 2015–19 average. Central banks’ share of total demand rose to nearly 25 percent in 2024, compared with 12 percent in 2015-19. Price gains are expected to continue into 2026, albeit at a slower pace, as official sector demand and investor interest gradually moderate.

Silver prices surged to record highs of around $54 per ounce in mid-October, supported by safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and firm industrial demand. Prices have since pulled back somewhat, reflecting a broader market correction and easing concerns about supply constraints. Looking ahead, demand is expected to continue rising, driven both by safe-haven buying and growing use in renewable energy technologies and semiconductor production, as industrial uses account for more than half of total demand. Supply, however, is expected to expand only gradually over the forecast horizon, with modest increases in mining output and recycling. On balance, demand is expected to outpace supply, pushing prices up by roughly 34 percent in 2025 and an additional 8 percent in 2026. Platinum prices have surged this year as production has dropped to multi-year lows.

Demand is expected to increase gradually, although growth in automotive use—mainly for catalytic converters, which account for about 40 percent of total demand—is likely to remain subdued as EV adoption advances. Industrial and jewelry demand is also projected to post only modest gains. Supply is projected to recover modestly from recent lows, with increases in mining output in South Africa—the world’s largest producer—and recycling output from the auto and jewelry sectors. Even so, supply is still expected to fall short of demand, keeping market conditions tight. After rising by an expected 29 percent in 2025 (y/y), platinum prices are projected to increase by around 4 percent in 2026. As the 2025 calendar winds down, the global financial landscape is witnessing an unprecedented surge in precious metals.

On December 22, 2025, gold and silver prices vaulted to new all-time highs, driven by a potent combination of aggressive Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations and a dangerous escalation of geopolitical tensions in South America. Spot gold prices jumped nearly 2% to reach a staggering $4,420 per ounce, while silver outpaced its yellow counterpart, rallying over 3.4% to hit $69.44 per ounce. This late-year surge has solidified 2025 as a generational milestone for commodity investors. With gold posting year-to-date gains of approximately 70%, the metal is currently on track for its best annual performance since 1979. The immediate implications for the market are profound: a massive rotation out of fixed-income assets into hard commodities is underway as investors scramble for safety amidst a weakening U.S. dollar and the specter of regional conflict.

The rally witnessed on December 22 is the culmination of a months-long trend characterized by cooling economic data and rising global instability. Throughout 2025, the U.S. Federal Reserve has already implemented three interest rate cuts in response to a softening labor market, which saw the national unemployment rate climb to 4.6% in November. As of this morning, market participants are now pricing in at least two additional cuts for early 2026, significantly lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver. The timeline of this specific surge accelerated rapidly over the weekend. Tensions in Venezuela reached a boiling point after the U.S.

administration intensified its blockade against Venezuelan oil tankers. Reports surfaced early Monday that a tanker was seized by U.S. naval forces, sparking fears of a direct military confrontation in the Caribbean. This "geopolitical anxiety" has sent shockwaves through the commodities complex, with institutional desks at major banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) reporting record inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The meteoric rise in spot prices has translated into massive windfalls for the world’s largest mining companies. Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM), the world’s leading gold producer, saw its stock rise 2.9% in early Monday trading, bringing its year-to-date return to a staggering 170%. The company’s focus on high-grade Tier-1 assets has allowed it to maintain relatively stable all-in sustaining costs (AISC), meaning nearly every dollar of gold’s price increase is flowing directly to the bottom line. Gold prices surged in 2025 due to trade tensions, central bank and ETF demand. What is the gold price forecast for 2026 and beyond? As the 2025 calendar winds down, the global financial landscape is witnessing an unprecedented surge in precious metals.

The meteoric rise in spot prices has translated into massive windfalls for the world’s largest mining companies. Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM), the world’s leading gold producer, saw its stock rise 2.9% in early Monday trading, bringing its year-to-date return to a staggering 170%. The company’s focus on high-grade Tier-1 assets has allowed it to maintain relatively stable all-in sustaining costs (AISC), meaning nearly every dollar of gold’s price increase is flowing directly to the bottom line. Gold entered 2026 at levels few institutions believed possible just two years earlier. An extraordinary 2025 rally driven by aggressive central-bank buying, persistent geopolitical tension, and expectations of monetary easing pushed prices to all-time highs above $4,300 per ounce and forced banks to rewrite their outlooks. This article consolidates the most authoritative projections from major banks and respected analysts, along with the relevant forward-looking forecasts from earlier institutional research, so you can track how projections have changed over time.

The chart below shows real-time gold spot prices tracked by Lear Capital and updated throughout the trading day. Before gold accelerated far beyond expectations, several institutions issued more conservative targets. Some of these remain useful as reference points that illustrate how sharply sentiment has changed. These earlier forecasts now read like the first chapter in a much larger price repricing. By the end of 2025, gold had sailed past $4,000, prompting an industry-wide reset of forward expectations.

Gold Could Surge As High As 4 250 Next Yr Amid Uncertainty Over Fed

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