University of Kwazulu-Natal

Gold Could Surge As High As 4 250 Next Year Amid Uncertainty Over Fed

Bonisiwe Shabane
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gold could surge as high as 4 250 next year amid uncertainty over fed

(Yahoo!Finance) - Gold (GC=F) prices, already at record levels, are likely headed higher as rate cut expectations grow and Fed independence comes into question, according to JPMorgan analysts. On Wednesday, gold futures touched a record high north of $3,620 per troy ounce while immediate delivery bullion rose to as much as $3,546, also a new high. JPMorgan analysts forecast gold prices will rise further this year as investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates starting in September. Gold becomes more attractive to investors as falling rates reduce its competition with yield-bearing assets. "US Federal Reserve rate cuts in-line or exceeding expectations should catalyse further gold ETF inflows and thus drive gold prices to their year-end forecast of ~$3,675/oz," JPMorgan analyst Patrick Jones wrote in a note... From there, gold should reach $4,000 by the second quarter of next year and surge to $4,250 by the end of 2026, especially if the Trump administration's attempt to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook...

Cook's departure could have wider implications for reshaping the central bank, the analysts said. "We believe any potential weakening of the US Federal Reserve's independence could have significant implications for long-term gold prices," Jones wrote. Updated on: December 23, 2025 / 7:51 AM EST / CBS News Gold prices soared above $4,400 on Monday to reach a new all-time high, as analysts pointed to rising geopolitical tensions and softer monetary policy as key drivers of the surge. The price of the precious metal traded at $4,475 per ounce at 4 p.m. EDT after hitting a high of $4,477 per ounce earlier in the day.

The asset has risen more than 70% since the start of this year. Gold is viewed as a safe-haven investment and typically acts as a hedge against inflation. "The metals trade has been strong all year, and particularly for gold," Bret Kenwell, a U.S. investment and options analyst at eToro, told CBS News. "As its fundamentals remain intact, gold digested its recent rally to all-time highs quite well." Silver prices were also rallying on Monday, reaching $69 by 4 p.m.

EDT. The metal is up 130% since the start of the year. The price of gold has hit a record high of more than $4,000 (£2,985) an ounce as investors look for safe places to put their money over concerns about economic and political uncertainty around... Gold has seen its biggest rally since the 1970s, rising by around a third since April when US President Donald Trump announced tariffs which have upset global trade. Analysts say another issue worrying investors is delays to the release of key economic data as the US government shutdown enters its second week. Gold is seen as a so-called safe haven investment, which is expected to retain or increase its value during times of market turbulence or economic downturns.

At the same time, the Bank of England (BoE) has warned the value of AI tech companies "appear stretched" with a rising risk of a "sharp correction" to financial markets. This blog post is part of a special series based on the October 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook, a flagship report published by the World Bank. This series features concise summaries of commodity-specific sections extracted from the report. Explore the full report here. Precious metal prices are projected to reach new all-time highs in 2026, following an estimated 41 percent increase this year. Gold briefly exceeded $4,300 per ounce and silver touched $54 per ounce in October before easing back, while platinum has also posted solid gains this year.

Gold is on track to record fresh highs next year, supported by safe-haven demand, including continued central bank buying. Silver prices are expected to rise further, driven by growing industrial demand from renewable energy technologies alongside safe-haven interest, while tight supply conditions are likely to continue supporting platinum prices. However, uncertainty around the price outlook remains significant. A renewed escalation in geopolitical tensions or heightened policy uncertainty could push gold prices above current projections, while weaker industrial activity could place downward pressure on silver and platinum, pulling their prices below baseline... Gold prices climbed to record highs in early October before easing in recent weeks. The surge was fueled by strong safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical tensions and broader economic concerns, helped by a weaker U.S.

dollar and U.S. monetary easing. Gold demand rose 10 percent in the first three quarters of 2025 (y/y), led by strong investment inflows, including from gold-backed ETFs and continued (though moderating) central bank purchases. Prices are set to rise by around 42 percent in 2025, marking the strongest annual gain since the late 1970s. Both the 1979-80 surge and the current rally have occurred alongside heightened geopolitical tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar.

The current rally is distinguished by record central bank buying, with purchases since 2022 more than twice their 2015–19 average. Central banks’ share of total demand rose to nearly 25 percent in 2024, compared with 12 percent in 2015-19. Price gains are expected to continue into 2026, albeit at a slower pace, as official sector demand and investor interest gradually moderate. Silver prices surged to record highs of around $54 per ounce in mid-October, supported by safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and firm industrial demand. Prices have since pulled back somewhat, reflecting a broader market correction and easing concerns about supply constraints. Looking ahead, demand is expected to continue rising, driven both by safe-haven buying and growing use in renewable energy technologies and semiconductor production, as industrial uses account for more than half of total demand.

Supply, however, is expected to expand only gradually over the forecast horizon, with modest increases in mining output and recycling. On balance, demand is expected to outpace supply, pushing prices up by roughly 34 percent in 2025 and an additional 8 percent in 2026. Platinum prices have surged this year as production has dropped to multi-year lows. Demand is expected to increase gradually, although growth in automotive use—mainly for catalytic converters, which account for about 40 percent of total demand—is likely to remain subdued as EV adoption advances. Industrial and jewelry demand is also projected to post only modest gains. Supply is projected to recover modestly from recent lows, with increases in mining output in South Africa—the world’s largest producer—and recycling output from the auto and jewelry sectors.

Even so, supply is still expected to fall short of demand, keeping market conditions tight. After rising by an expected 29 percent in 2025 (y/y), platinum prices are projected to increase by around 4 percent in 2026. Gold (XAU/USD) started the year on a bullish note and registered impressive gains in the first quarter. Following a consolidation phase during the summer months, the precious metal surged higher in the third quarter and reached an all-time record high of $4,381 in October. Although XAU/USD corrected lower, buyers refused to hand over the reins heading into the holiday season. Throughout 2025, Gold set over 50 record peaks and rose more than 60%, becoming one of the best-performing commodities of the year.

A combination of fundamental factors fuelled the precious metal’s relentless advance, allowing investors to ignore technically overbought conditions. Assessing Gold’s annual gains, “this performance has been supported by a combination of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker US Dollar, and positive price momentum. Both investors and central banks have increased their allocations to Gold, seeking diversification and stability,” said the World Gold Council. 2026 is poised to be an interesting year for Gold. Changes in global economic dynamics, the ever-shifting geopolitical landscape, institutional activity and major central banks’ monetary policy decisions could all play a role in the yellow metal’s pricing through the year. After posting losses for two consecutive months to wrap up 2024, Gold reversed its direction in early 2025.

Escalating geopolitical tensions and heightened uncertainty about the global economic outlook, due to the new United States (US) administration’s aggressive trade policy, revived safe-haven demand. In turn, XAU/USD gained nearly 20% in the first quarter, outperforming all US major stock indices. Leading up to the January 20 inauguration of newly elected US President Donald Trump, which had the potential to trigger a deep trade conflict with the US’s partners, markets adopted a cautious stance. With Trump signing an executive order on February 1, imposing 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% on Chinese imports, the trade war officially began. After the 10% tariff on China took effect on February 4, Beijing retaliated by raising tariffs on US goods. In the meantime, the world’s second-largest economy’s Gold reserves continued to rise in February, further supporting the uptrend in prices.

(What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets.

Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today. Gold prices surged in 2025 due to trade tensions, central bank and ETF demand. What is the gold price forecast for 2026 and beyond? Since 1995, providing gold investors with the latest precious metals information & financial truth!

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