Forrester Predictions For 2026 The Shift From Ai Hype To Hard Business

Bonisiwe Shabane

-Dec 27, 2025, 9:35 AM

forrester predictions for 2026 the shift from ai hype to hard business

Brian Hopkins, VP, Emerging Tech Portfolio Every bubble inevitably bursts, and in 2026, AI will inevitably lose its sheen, trading its tiara for a hard hat. Enterprise ROI concerns will exceed the tensile strength of vendor hyperbole. In the face of this market correction, enterprises will prioritize function over flair. CFOs will get pulled into more AI deals. Companies will distribute their bets across agentic ecosystems and shift talent around as AI agents take over grunt work.

Savvy enterprises will invest in AI governance and AI fluency training to mitigate risk and slowly chart their AI voyage. In 2026, as the art of the possible succumbs to the science of the practical, we predict: Forrester clients can read our full Predictions 2026: Artificial Intelligence report to get more detail about each of these predictions, plus two more bonus predictions on the impact of agentic data and analytics on... Set up a Forrester guidance session to discuss these predictions with me and other key contributors of this report to plan out your 2026 AI strategy that will set your organization up for success. If you aren’t yet a client, download our complimentary Predictions guides and access additional complimentary resources, including webinars, on the Predictions 2026 hub. Stay tuned for updates from the Forrester blogs.

2026 will be a year of correction — not collapse — for artificial intelligence. After a decade of soaring expectations, Forrester predicts a decisive shift toward value discipline, governance maturity, and renewed trust in human expertise. Budgets will tighten, talent shortages will intensify, and regulatory pressure will climb. Yet amid this friction lies the real story: AI is finally being forced to prove its worth. In this article, we examine Forrester’s key predictions for 2026 and pair them with expert analysis from our leadership team. Their commentary goes beyond the headlines, offering concrete recommendations for CEOs, CIOs, CFOs, and business executives navigating one of the most pivotal transformations in enterprise technology.

25% of AI spend by enterprises will be delayed into 2027 Despite bold investment, AI returns remain elusive — only a fraction of firms can link AI to profit growth. As CFOs tighten oversight, projects with unclear ROI will stall, shifting one-quarter of planned budgets into 2027. This slowdown will expose the gap between marketing hype and business impact, forcing organizations to prioritize measurable value and renegotiate inflated vendor costs. CFOs are stepping in because the value story no longer matches the invoices. AI programs that can’t link outcomes to the profit and loss statement will stall — and executives who don’t instrument value creation will lose budget before they lose faith.

This shift isn’t anti-AI; it’s anti-wishful thinking. Every bubble inevitably bursts, and in 2026, AI will inevitably lose its sheen, trading its tiara for a hard hat. Enterprise ROI concerns will exceed the tensile strength of vendor hyperbole. In the face of this market correction, enterprises will prioritize function over flair. CFOs will get pulled into more AI deals. Companies will distribute their bets across agentic ecosystems and shift talent around as AI agents take over grunt work.

Savvy enterprises will invest in AI governance and AI fluency training to mitigate risk and slowly chart their AI voyage. Forrester has published its 2026 AI Predictions, which reveals 2026 will be the age of frumpy but functional AI, and its 2026 Tech Leadership Predictions, which reveals tech organisations will choose high performance in... In 2025, AI agents were a hot topic in the data and analytics world. However, by 2026, the initial hype is expected to fade, giving way to a more practical focus on AI governance, literacy, and using agents for routine data tasks. The excitement around what's possible with AI will be replaced by the reality of its everyday applications. In 2026, Forrester’s predictions include:

Enterprises will delay 25% of AI spend into 2027. AI value is failing to land: fewer than one-third can tie the value of AI to profit & loss changes. Given this, in 2026, CEOs will pull more CFOs into AI deals in 2026. Finance-gated decisions will slow production deployments and decimate proofs of concept, leading enterprises to delay 25% of their planned spend into 2027. Vendor fragmentation will force a majority of enterprises to compose “agentlakes.” Hyperscalers and data platform and automation vendors can’t claim agentic AI dominance just yet. In 2026, vendor fragmentation will cause the majority of enterprises to build composable agent architectures.

These agentlakes will manage and orchestrate fractured AI agent deployments and enable complex multiagent use cases. Home > AI Predictions 2026: From Hype to Habit 2026 will mark the moment when AI stops being the headline and becomes the habit. After years of experimentation and hype, artificial intelligence is quietly embedding itself into the way work gets done. The question is no longer whether AI works, but how well it performs in the background of daily operations. This shift represents maturity.

Companies that once viewed AI as a bold experiment are now demanding visible results: productivity, safety, and measurable outcomes. The technology itself is becoming invisible, integrated into workflows and decisions in ways that simply make business run better. The coming year will define how organizations move from showcasing pilots to scaling real value. AI in 2026 will not be about talking to machines, but about letting them work alongside people to deliver better outcomes for customers, companies, and entire industries. The global context surrounding AI in 2026 is one of pressure and pragmatism. The surge in capital investment from hyperscalers and governments has raised expectations for real performance and immediate, measurable returns.

After years of experimentation, enterprises are now accountable for proving the value of their AI investments. After a turbulent 2025 marked by overly enthusiastic AI ambitions, deepening CX fatigue, and ongoing economic volatility, 2026 will bring a year of reckoning. AI missteps will demand a pragmatic reset as wary buyers seek proof over promises. Progress hinges on effective use cases for generative AI and agentic systems as well as renewed offline experiences. In 2026, successful firms will forgo the hype and focus on tangible outcomes, trust, and customer value. Forrester clients: Take advantage of your exclusive access to our full suite of Predictions 2026 resources.

The volatility that technology and security leaders grappled with in 2025 will only intensify in 2026. As budgets get tighter, the margin for error shrinks. Technology and security leaders must step past tech experimentation and deliver measurable, secure business outcomes. The race to trusted business value is on. What’s driving AI investment shifts? What direction will quantum security and neoclouds take?

Forrester’s 2026 Predictions guide explores the questions that tech and security leaders must answer. In 2026, technology and security leaders will be under pressure to deliver real, defensible value. Join us for a webinar to learn how trust, value, and evidence-based decisions will define your success. The era of AI evangelism is giving way to evaluation. Stanford faculty see a coming year defined by rigor, transparency, and a long-overdue focus on actual utility over speculative promise. Readers wanted to know if their therapy chatbot could be trusted, whether their boss was automating the wrong job, and if their private conversations were training tomorrow's models.

Readers wanted to know if their therapy chatbot could be trusted, whether their boss was automating the wrong job, and if their private conversations were training tomorrow's models. Using AI to analyze Google Street View images of damaged buildings across 16 states, Stanford researchers found that destroyed buildings in poor areas often remained empty lots for years, while those in wealthy areas... Using AI to analyze Google Street View images of damaged buildings across 16 states, Stanford researchers found that destroyed buildings in poor areas often remained empty lots for years, while those in wealthy areas... Forrester’s 2026 Technology & Security Predictions: As AI’s Hype Fades, Enterprises Will Defer 25% of Planned AI Spend to 2027 LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--According to Forrester’s (Nasdaq: FORR) 2026 technology and security predictions, AI will face a reckoning next year — the gap between inflated vendor promises and the value delivered to enterprises is widening, forcing... With fewer than one-third of decision-makers able to tie the value of AI to their organization’s financial growth, CEOs will lean more on their CFOs to approve AI investments based on their ROI in...

As financial rigor slows production deployments and wipes out proofs of concept, enterprises will defer a quarter of their planned AI spend into 2027. Forrester’s Predictions reports offer forward-looking insights into trends and signals that empower leaders and their teams to think beyond the conventional and ignite bold ideas in the year ahead. Forrester’s technology and security predictions cover topics including: artificial intelligence; automation and robotics; tech leadership; cloud computing; tech infrastructure and operations; enterprise software; software development; cybersecurity and risk; and smart manufacturing and mobility. Key highlights from Forrester’s 2026 technology and security predictions include: “In 2026, the AI hype period ends as the pressure to deliver real, measurable results from secure AI initiatives intensifies,” said Sharyn Leaver, chief research officer at Forrester. “As the era of volatility continues, tech and security leaders will be called upon to recalibrate investments under tighter financial scrutiny and governance while navigating increasingly complex geopolitical and economic risks.

Forrester’s predictions are designed to help leaders make confident decisions by understanding the forward-looking trends that will shape their industry, function, and role in the year ahead.”

Forrester Predictions For 2026 The Shift From Ai Hype To Hard Business

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