Forrester S 2026 Technology Security Predictions As Ai S Hype Fades

Bonisiwe Shabane

-Dec 10, 2025, 2:26 AM

forrester s 2026 technology security predictions as ai s hype fades

CAMBRIDGE, Mass., October 28, 2025 — According to Forrester’s (Nasdaq: FORR) 2026 technology and security predictions, AI will face a reckoning next year — the gap between inflated vendor promises and the value delivered... With fewer than one-third of decision-makers able to tie the value of AI to their organization’s financial growth, CEOs will lean more on their CFOs to approve AI investments based on their ROI in... As financial rigor slows production deployments and wipes out proofs of concept, enterprises will defer a quarter of their planned AI spend into 2027. Forrester’s Predictions reports offer forward-looking insights into trends and signals that empower leaders and their teams to think beyond the conventional and ignite bold ideas in the year ahead. Forrester’s technology and security predictions cover topics including: artificial intelligence; automation and robotics; tech leadership; cloud computing; tech infrastructure and operations; enterprise software; software development; cybersecurity and risk; and smart manufacturing and mobility. Key highlights from Forrester’s 2026 technology and security predictions include:

“In 2026, the AI hype period ends as the pressure to deliver real, measurable results from secure AI initiatives intensifies,” said Sharyn Leaver, chief research officer at Forrester. “As the era of volatility continues, tech and security leaders will be called upon to recalibrate investments under tighter financial scrutiny and governance while navigating increasingly complex geopolitical and economic risks. Forrester’s predictions are designed to help leaders make confident decisions by understanding the forward-looking trends that will shape their industry, function, and role in the year ahead.” About Forrester Forrester (Nasdaq: FORR) is one of the most influential research and advisory firms in the world. We empower leaders in technology, customer experience, digital, marketing, sales, and product functions to be bold at work and accelerate growth through customer obsession. Our unique research and continuous guidance model helps executives and their teams achieve their initiatives and outcomes faster and with confidence.

To learn more, visit Forrester.com. October 28, 2025 By admin Leave a Comment Forrester’s newly released 2026 technology and security outlook makes one thing abundantly clear: artificial intelligence is about to undergo a reality check. After years of ballooning expectations, massive marketing claims, and boardroom-level hype, the gulf between vendor promises and actual enterprise value has grown too wide to ignore. In 2026, according to Forrester, this mismatch will trigger a market correction—one that forces enterprises, investors, and vendors alike to realign AI narratives with measurable financial impact. The most striking prediction is that fewer than one-third of decision-makers can currently link AI initiatives directly to organizational financial growth.

This weak ROI signal is compelling CEOs to lean harder on CFOs, making financial rigor the decisive factor in whether projects get greenlit. What this means in practice is a slowdown: proofs of concept will be shelved, production deployments will be scrutinized, and ultimately, a quarter of enterprise AI spending slated for 2026 will be deferred into... In other words, the next 12 months won’t be about experimentation—it will be about accountability. At the same time, Forrester highlights structural shifts reshaping the broader technology landscape. Neoclouds—specialized cloud providers designed around GPU-heavy AI workloads—are forecast to grab $20 billion in revenue. Unlike hyperscalers that offer generalized platforms, neoclouds are carving out niches by providing orchestration tailored for AI, supporting open-source models, and offering sovereign AI solutions attractive to governments and regulated industries.

This is more than a market opportunity; it signals a shift in power away from the cloud oligopoly and toward agile, AI-first infrastructure providers. The report also warns of mounting challenges in talent and security. The time required to fill developer roles is set to double, reflecting the tension between AI-assisted coding tools and the irreplaceable expertise of senior engineers. Enterprises will demand technologists with strong system architecture backgrounds who can both harness and oversee AI-driven development. On the security side, quantum looms large: spending on quantum security is expected to surpass 5% of total IT security budgets by 2026. That’s not a distant-future line item—it’s immediate preparation, encompassing consulting, migration planning, and cryptographic inventory as firms race to identify and protect high-impact systems.

Brian Hopkins, VP, Emerging Tech Portfolio Every bubble inevitably bursts, and in 2026, AI will inevitably lose its sheen, trading its tiara for a hard hat. Enterprise ROI concerns will exceed the tensile strength of vendor hyperbole. In the face of this market correction, enterprises will prioritize function over flair. CFOs will get pulled into more AI deals. Companies will distribute their bets across agentic ecosystems and shift talent around as AI agents take over grunt work. Savvy enterprises will invest in AI governance and AI fluency training to mitigate risk and slowly chart their AI voyage.

In 2026, as the art of the possible succumbs to the science of the practical, we predict: Forrester clients can read our full Predictions 2026: Artificial Intelligence report to get more detail about each... Set up a Forrester guidance session to discuss these predictions with me and other key contributors of this report to plan out your 2026 AI strategy that will set your organization up for success. If you aren’t yet a client, download our complimentary Predictions guides and access additional complimentary resources, including webinars, on the Predictions 2026 hub. Stay tuned for updates from the Forrester blogs. 2026 will be a year of correction — not collapse — for artificial intelligence. After a decade of soaring expectations, Forrester predicts a decisive shift toward value discipline, governance maturity, and renewed trust in human expertise.

Budgets will tighten, talent shortages will intensify, and regulatory pressure will climb. Yet amid this friction lies the real story: AI is finally being forced to prove its worth. In this article, we examine Forrester’s key predictions for 2026 and pair them with expert analysis from our leadership team. Their commentary goes beyond the headlines, offering concrete recommendations for CEOs, CIOs, CFOs, and business executives navigating one of the most pivotal transformations in enterprise technology. 25% of AI spend by enterprises will be delayed into 2027 Despite bold investment, AI returns remain elusive — only a fraction of firms can link AI to profit growth. As CFOs tighten oversight, projects with unclear ROI will stall, shifting one-quarter of planned budgets into 2027.

This slowdown will expose the gap between marketing hype and business impact, forcing organizations to prioritize measurable value and renegotiate inflated vendor costs. CFOs are stepping in because the value story no longer matches the invoices. AI programs that can’t link outcomes to the profit and loss statement will stall — and executives who don’t instrument value creation will lose budget before they lose faith. This shift isn’t anti-AI; it’s anti-wishful thinking. Every bubble inevitably bursts, and in 2026, AI will inevitably lose its sheen, trading its tiara for a hard hat. Enterprise ROI concerns will exceed the tensile strength of vendor hyperbole.

In the face of this market correction, enterprises will prioritize function over flair. CFOs will get pulled into more AI deals. Companies will distribute their bets across agentic ecosystems and shift talent around as AI agents take over grunt work. In what could be described as a banner year for technology advancements, 2025 showed how powerful—and dangerous—AI can be in the wrong hands. With bad actors automating complex attacks, using AI tools to engage in social engineering campaigns and manipulating the AI agent to expose sensitive information, it’s no surprise that the year was a game of... And while the global average of the cost of a data breach fell 9% to USD 4.44 million, the average cost in the US hit a record high of USD 10.22 million.

The cybersecurity threats didn’t end with automated chatbots spamming inboxes and tricking AI agents. This year, we saw what could happen when an organization is caught unprepared to deal with the consequences of integrating new tools like AI agents into their workflow: 13% of companies reported an AI-related... Last year’s cybersecurity predictions touched on AI’s increasingly important presence in the cybersecurity preparedness plan. This year, IBM’s predictions for 2026 center on how the integration of autonomous AI into enterprise environments can be both a boon and a burden, depending on whether the proper security measures are implemented—or... The agentic shift is no longer theoretical; it’s underway. Autonomous AI agents are reshaping enterprise risk, and legacy security models will crack under the pressure.

To stay resilient, organizations must drive a new era of integrated governance and security, built to monitor, validate and control AI behavior at machine speed. This transformation requires embedding security into the very fabric of AI development and governance—ensuring agents operate within ethical and operational boundaries from day one. Anything less risks fragmentation, blind spots and enterprise-wide exposure. AI is accelerating innovation—but also exposing enterprises to unprecedented risks of intellectual property (IP) loss. In 2026, we’ll see major security incidents where sensitive IP is compromised through shadow AI systems: unapproved tools deployed by employees without oversight. These systems often operate across multiple environments, making it easy for one unmonitored model to trigger widespread exposure.

This mirrors the rise of shadow IT a decade ago, but with far higher stakes—AI tools now handle proprietary algorithms, confidential data and strategic decision-making. Closing the gap will require security teams to move at the speed of innovation, delivering approved AI tools and governance frameworks that meet employee needs without sacrificing control. It’s the onset of Forrester’s predictions season. We, the analysts, curate predictions for the coming year centered around different technology categories. In 2026, we will see significant disruption from accelerated appetite for all things AI. Business demands of AI systems, network connectivity, AI for IT operations (AIOps), the conversational AI-powered service desk, and more are driving substantial changes that tech leaders must enable within their organizations.

Events have also shifted attention to risk management and modern security practices. After we debated on several predictions, we wanted to preview three technology infrastructure and operations predictions for you: To dive deeper into each prediction mentioned here, as well as two additional predictions, read the Predictions 2026: Technology Infrastructure And Operations report. We are hosting a webinar to discuss these predictions in detail: Please register for a live discussion. If you can’t attend the webinar, feel free to set up a Forrester guidance session. As a Forrester client, you can access all 2026 predictions on the Predictions 2026 hub.

Stay tuned for updates from the Forrester blogs. Enterprises Will Start Treating AI Systems as Insider Threats. Josh Taylor, Lead Security Analyst, Fortra As agents gain system-level permissions to act across email, file storage, and identity platforms, companies will need to monitor machine behavior for privilege misuse, data leakage, etc. The shift happens when organizations realize their AI assistants have broader access than most employees and operate outside traditional user behavior analytics. The first time an AI agent gets compromised through prompt injection or a supply chain attack and starts quietly exfiltrating customer data under the guise of “helping users,” organizations will realize they built privileged...

Forrester S 2026 Technology Security Predictions As Ai S Hype Fades

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