World Gold Council 2026 Outlook Three Scenarios To Determine Gold

Bonisiwe Shabane

-Dec 27, 2025, 8:34 PM

world gold council 2026 outlook three scenarios to determine gold

Gold has experienced a remarkable 2025, achieving over 50 all-time highs and returning over 60%.1 This performance has been supported by a combination of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker US dollar, and... Both investors and central banks have increased their allocations to gold, seeking diversification and stability. Looking to 2026, the outlook is shaped by ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty. The gold price broadly reflects macroeconomic consensus expectations and may remain rangebound if current conditions persist. However, taking cues from this year, 2026 will likely continue to surprise. If economic growth slows and interest rates fall further, gold could see moderate gains.

In a more severe downturn marked by rising global risks, gold could perform strongly. Conversely, a successful outcome from policies set by the Trump administration would accelerate economic growth and reduce geopolitical risk, leading to higher rates and a stronger US dollar, pushing gold lower. Additional factors, such as central bank demand and gold recycling trends, could also influence the market. Most importantly, gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier and source of stability remains key amid continued market volatility. Login or register to read the text, view charts and download the files.. Registration is free, quick and easy.

It gives you access to all downloads on this website. After a year that reshaped global perceptions of gold, the World Gold Council explores the various possibilities for the yellow metal heading into 2026. Investors should brace for continued economic uncertainty and financial market volatility in 2026, the World Gold Council (WGC) warns in its 2026 outlook — and those circumstances could have various effects on gold. After a blistering 2025 that has so far seen the yellow metal hit more than 50 all-time highs and rise over 60 percent, the WGC says 2026 could deliver anything from a modest rally... The year was a contest between bullish forces tied to slowing global growth and persistent political instability, and bearish pressures that could emerge if the Trump administration successfully lifts US economic performance. For now, the WGC says the gold price “broadly reflects macroeconomic consensus expectations,” suggesting it could remain rangebound, although factors like softer growth and geopolitical turmoil are likely to provide support.

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The World Gold Council stated that compared to the suppressing effect on gold prices, slower growth, accommodative monetary policies, and ongoing geopolitical risks are more likely to push gold prices higher. Investment demand, central bank purchases, and gold recycling could provide additional support, but uncertainties remain high, with key headwinds still in place. In the early Asian trading session on Friday (December 5), spot gold fell by approximately 0.24%, trading near $4,200 per ounce, remaining at a relatively high level for the year. Analysts from the World Gold Council noted in their 'Gold Outlook 2026' report that gold performed exceptionally well in 2025, setting over 50 new all-time highs with an increase of more than 60%. They remarked: 'Heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weakening US dollar, and positive price momentum collectively supported this performance. Both investors and central banks increased their gold allocations to seek diversification and stability.'

Looking ahead to 2026, they believe geo-economic uncertainty will continue to impact the outlook for gold. Analysts stated: 'Gold prices generally reflect the prevailing macroeconomic expectations. If current conditions persist, prices may remain range-bound. However, based on this year's developments, 2026 is likely to continue surprising. A minor uptick in gold prices could occur if economic growth slows and interest rates decline further. In the event of a more severe economic downturn triggered by rising global risks, gold may perform strongly.

Conversely, if the policies implemented by the Trump administration yield remarkable results, accelerating economic growth and reducing geopolitical risks, leading to higher interest rates and a stronger US dollar, gold prices would decline.' They added: 'Other factors such as central bank demand and gold recycling trends could also influence the market. Most importantly, in the context of ongoing market volatility, gold’s role as a tool for portfolio diversification and a source of stability remains crucial.' Gold recorded an exceptional performance in 2025, achieving over 50 all-time highs and delivering more than 60% return. This surge was driven by elevated geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker US dollar, marginally lower interest rates, and strong investment and central bank demand. As a result, gold became one of the strongest global assets of the year.

For 2026, the report highlights that uncertainty remains high. The current gold price already reflects the market consensus: stable global growth, modest inflation decline, and only moderate monetary easing. Under this baseline, gold is expected to remain rangebound. However, the document emphasises that the macroeconomic environment rarely follows the consensus path, and outcomes may diverge significantly. Three alternative scenarios describe potential movements. The report also identifies two wildcards: central bank demand and recycling supply.

Emerging-market central banks continue to accumulate gold, offering structural support, but a reduction in official-sector purchases could weaken the market. Similarly, gold recycling has been muted due to increased use of gold as loan collateral, particularly in India; however, an economic downturn could trigger forced selling and weigh on prices. In conclusion, while gold may trade within a stable range under consensus expectations, the balance of risks is tilted toward supportive outcomes. Softer global growth, accommodative monetary policy, and persistent geopolitical tensions make moderate or strong gains plausible. Gold’s role as a diversifier and source of stability remains central in an environment where shocks and surprises are increasingly common. Gold is closing out 2025 with price action that's forcing traders to recalibrate their usual reference levels.

With gold already at record highs near $4,497, the market has the feel of a late-cycle move marked by strong momentum, shallow pullbacks, and many late buyers chasing breakouts. That's the framework traders must heed as they approach 2026. When gold rallies this strongly, it can continue to surge even when indicators appear overextended. At the same time, the first real shift in rates, the dollar, or risk mood can turn a vertical rally into a fast, ugly retracement. In the following forecast article, we present a practical outlook for 2026 based on the latest market data, positioning indicators, and a comprehensive technical map featuring tradable levels. Overall technical bias: Bullish, with overheating risk.

Short-term (next 1–2 weeks): The price can maintain a bid stance while above the $4,474–$4,462 pivot support zone. A clean push and hold above $4,503–$4,516 opens continuation risk. Gold is on track to finish its best year in over four decades, leaving the S&P 500 and global bonds in the dust. But after a stunning 60% rally in 2025, the biggest question on Wall Street is simple: Is the gold trade too crowded, or is the party just getting started? The latest World Gold Council outlook suggests the answer depends less on what gold has just done and more on how the macroeconomic regime shifts over the next twelve months. The precious metal – as tracked by the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) – delivered a 60.6% gain through early December, setting more than 50 all-time highs.

But what made 2025 so remarkable was not simply the magnitude of the rally but its composition. Gold price is trading at $4,191 per ounce today (Tuesday) December 9, 2025, holding near the elevated levels that defined 2025's historic rally. After surging 61% this year with over 50 all-time highs, the fourth strongest annual return since 1971, gold now faces a critical question: what will 2026 bring? According to the World Gold Council's (WGC) newly released Gold Outlook 2026 report, the answer depends on whether US President Donald Trump's reflation policies succeed. In the organization's most bearish scenario, gold price could crash between 5% and 20% from current $4,200 baseline levels, potentially dropping to a range of $3,360 to $3,990 per ounce. In this article I am checking the newest gold price prediction to try to answer the question: How low can gold go in 2026?

The World Gold Council doesn't offer a single prediction for 2026. Instead, the team headed by Juan Carlos Artigas, Regional CEO (Americas) and Global Head of Research at the WGC, presents four distinct macroeconomic scenarios in the organization's Gold Outlook 2026 report, each with dramatically... "Looking to 2026, the outlook is shaped by ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty," the report states. "The gold price broadly reflects macroeconomic consensus expectations and may remain rangebound if current conditions persist. However, taking cues from this year, 2026 will likely continue to surprise." Gold experienced an exceptional year in 2025 – with more than 50 new record highs and a return of over 60%.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), this development was primarily driven by geopolitical and economic tensions, a weaker US dollar, and strong price momentum. For 2026, the World Gold Council does not expect a clear trend year, but rather a development that heavily depends on the macroeconomic environment – from a “moderate plus” to significant pullbacks, much is... In 2025, gold was one of the best-performing asset classes globally. The World Gold Council attributes this strong performance to several concurrently acting factors: Both institutional investors and private investors increased their gold allocations, according to the report. In addition, central banks continued their gold purchases at a high level in 2025 – albeit slightly below the record levels of previous years, but still significantly above the long-term average.

The World Gold Council’s in-house Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) shows that the 2025 annual performance was relatively evenly supported by four factors: Notably, all four factors contributed with similar strength. Thus, the market was not driven by a single issue, but by a broad mix of political, monetary, and market dynamics, according to the World Gold Council.

World Gold Council 2026 Outlook Three Scenarios To Determine Gold

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