World Gold Council Gold Outlook 2026 Between Uncertainty Interest

Bonisiwe Shabane

-Dec 27, 2025, 8:45 PM

world gold council gold outlook 2026 between uncertainty interest

Gold has experienced a remarkable 2025, achieving over 50 all-time highs and returning over 60%.1 This performance has been supported by a combination of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker US dollar, and... Both investors and central banks have increased their allocations to gold, seeking diversification and stability. Looking to 2026, the outlook is shaped by ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty. The gold price broadly reflects macroeconomic consensus expectations and may remain rangebound if current conditions persist. However, taking cues from this year, 2026 will likely continue to surprise. If economic growth slows and interest rates fall further, gold could see moderate gains.

In a more severe downturn marked by rising global risks, gold could perform strongly. Conversely, a successful outcome from policies set by the Trump administration would accelerate economic growth and reduce geopolitical risk, leading to higher rates and a stronger US dollar, pushing gold lower. Additional factors, such as central bank demand and gold recycling trends, could also influence the market. Most importantly, gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier and source of stability remains key amid continued market volatility. Login or register to read the text, view charts and download the files.. Registration is free, quick and easy.

It gives you access to all downloads on this website. Listen to this article in summarized format (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today.

Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Gold experienced an exceptional year in 2025 – with more than 50 new record highs and a return of over 60%. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), this development was primarily driven by geopolitical and economic tensions, a weaker US dollar, and strong price momentum.

For 2026, the World Gold Council does not expect a clear trend year, but rather a development that heavily depends on the macroeconomic environment – from a “moderate plus” to significant pullbacks, much is... In 2025, gold was one of the best-performing asset classes globally. The World Gold Council attributes this strong performance to several concurrently acting factors: Both institutional investors and private investors increased their gold allocations, according to the report. In addition, central banks continued their gold purchases at a high level in 2025 – albeit slightly below the record levels of previous years, but still significantly above the long-term average. The World Gold Council’s in-house Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) shows that the 2025 annual performance was relatively evenly supported by four factors:

Notably, all four factors contributed with similar strength. Thus, the market was not driven by a single issue, but by a broad mix of political, monetary, and market dynamics, according to the World Gold Council. After a year that reshaped global perceptions of gold, the World Gold Council explores the various possibilities for the yellow metal heading into 2026. Investors should brace for continued economic uncertainty and financial market volatility in 2026, the World Gold Council (WGC) warns in its 2026 outlook — and those circumstances could have various effects on gold. After a blistering 2025 that has so far seen the yellow metal hit more than 50 all-time highs and rise over 60 percent, the WGC says 2026 could deliver anything from a modest rally... The year was a contest between bullish forces tied to slowing global growth and persistent political instability, and bearish pressures that could emerge if the Trump administration successfully lifts US economic performance.

For now, the WGC says the gold price “broadly reflects macroeconomic consensus expectations,” suggesting it could remain rangebound, although factors like softer growth and geopolitical turmoil are likely to provide support. Gold recorded an exceptional performance in 2025, achieving over 50 all-time highs and delivering more than 60% return. This surge was driven by elevated geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker US dollar, marginally lower interest rates, and strong investment and central bank demand. As a result, gold became one of the strongest global assets of the year. For 2026, the report highlights that uncertainty remains high. The current gold price already reflects the market consensus: stable global growth, modest inflation decline, and only moderate monetary easing.

Under this baseline, gold is expected to remain rangebound. However, the document emphasises that the macroeconomic environment rarely follows the consensus path, and outcomes may diverge significantly. Three alternative scenarios describe potential movements. The report also identifies two wildcards: central bank demand and recycling supply. Emerging-market central banks continue to accumulate gold, offering structural support, but a reduction in official-sector purchases could weaken the market. Similarly, gold recycling has been muted due to increased use of gold as loan collateral, particularly in India; however, an economic downturn could trigger forced selling and weigh on prices.

In conclusion, while gold may trade within a stable range under consensus expectations, the balance of risks is tilted toward supportive outcomes. Softer global growth, accommodative monetary policy, and persistent geopolitical tensions make moderate or strong gains plausible. Gold’s role as a diversifier and source of stability remains central in an environment where shocks and surprises are increasingly common. Gold has experienced a remarkable year, achieving over 50 all-time highs and returning over 60 percent. This performance has been supported by a combination of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker U.S. dollar and positive price momentum.

Both investors and central banks have increased their allocations to gold, seeking diversification and stability. Looking to 2026, the World Gold Council says the outlook is shaped by ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty. The gold price broadly reflects macroeconomic consensus expectations and may remain rangebound if current conditions persist. However, taking cues from this year, 2026 will likely continue to surprise. If economic growth slows and interest rates fall further, gold could see moderate gains. In a more severe downturn marked by rising global risks, gold could perform strongly.

Conversely, a successful outcome from policies set by the Trump administration would accelerate economic growth and reduce geopolitical risk, leading to higher rates and a stronger U.S. dollar, pushing gold lower. Additional factors, such as central bank demand and gold recycling trends, could also influence the market. Most importantly, gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier and source of stability remains key amid continued market volatility. After setting more than 50 all-time highs and edging over 60 percent by the end of November, gold has emerged as one of the strongest-performing assets in 2025. This historic rally, gearing up to be gold’s fourth strongest annual return since 1971, has been driven by a combination of factors.

At a macro level, two stand out: A supercharged geopolitical and geoeconomic environment and generalized U.S. dollar weakness and marginally lower rates. This environment has resulted in a broader push for portfolio diversification amid lacklustre bond returns and concerns of frothiness in equity markets. Central bank purchases of gold and their moves on interest rates also shaped gold’s price trajectory in CY25. Don't miss the most important news and views of the day. Get them on our Telegram channel

First Published: Dec 04 2025 | 2:31 PM IST Gold could spend most of 2026 trading within a relatively narrow band unless the global economic environment deteriorates significantly, according to the World Gold Council’s annual outlook. After an extraordinary run in 2025—when the metal repeatedly hit record levels and delivered returns of more than 60%—the Council believes the coming year may lack the same one-way momentum. The report notes that the current price reflects broadly accepted expectations for economic growth, inflation patterns, and the trajectory of global interest rates. With markets anticipating steady worldwide expansion of around 2.7–2.8% and further rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, the Council says gold could stabilise rather than surge if these assumptions hold. A mildly stronger dollar, already factored into market models, also supports the view of a flatter price path.

However, the Council emphasises that economic cycles rarely move in straight lines, and even modest shifts could swing gold sharply. In a scenario where US growth cools but avoids recession, the metal could gain between 5% and 15%, helped by lower yields, softer risk sentiment, and renewed appeal as a hedge. Additional demand from central banks and new institutional investors—such as insurance firms in China or pension funds in India—could add to the momentum. A more severe global downturn would have a far bigger impact. The Council believes a combination of deeper economic stress, falling bond yields, and escalating geopolitical tension could push gold higher by 15–30% as investors seek refuge from volatility. Large inflows into global gold ETFs through 2025, amounting to over $77 billion, suggest that investors are already positioning cautiously.

The outlook also highlights the risk of a reversal. Should the US adopt aggressive pro-growth measures that stoke inflation, bond yields could climb and the dollar might strengthen. Under such conditions, gold could correct by 5–20% as investors shift toward equities and higher-yielding assets, potentially triggering ETF outflows.

World Gold Council Gold Outlook 2026 Between Uncertainty Interest

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