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Jp Morgan Forecasts Gold To Reach 3 675 Oz By Q4 2025 And 4 000 Oz By

Bonisiwe Shabane
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jp morgan forecasts gold to reach 3 675 oz by q4 2025 and 4 000 oz by

After the initial turmoil in the first three weeks of April, global brokerage firm JP Morgan has issued a revised outlook on gold prices, predicting an average of $3,675 per ounce by the fourth... The firm cited deepening macroeconomic concerns and rising geopolitical instability as the primary drivers behind the projected price surge. In its note, JP Morgan stated, “Tariff-driven recession and stagflation risks are forecasted to continue to supercharge gold’s structural bull run.” The foundation of JP Morgan’s gold outlook lies in the robust quarterly buying patterns supported by central banks and investors. According to its analysis, “a breakeven demand level (for prices to stay flat qoq) is around 350 tonnes or more of quarterly net demand from investors and central banks.” JP Morgan highlighted the reasons behind central bank demand, pointing to persistent global uncertainties.

“For central banks, the combination of economic, trade, and US policy uncertainty, as well as shifting, more unpredictable geopolitical alliances, will continue to fuel gold buying in our view,” it said. JP Morgan identified gold as one of the few remaining reliable hedges against a growing list of global financial risks. “For investors, we think gold remains one of the most optimal hedges for the unique combination of stagflation, recession, debasement and US policy risks facing markets in 2025 and 2026,” the note said. JP MORGAN SAYS NOW SEE GOLD PRICES REACHING AVERAGE OF $3,675/OZ BY 4Q25 ON THE WAY TOWARDS ABOVE $4,000/OZ BY 2Q26 JPMorgan see gold prices reaching average of USD 3,675/oz by Q425 on the way towards above USD 4,000/oz by Q2 26. Gold has surged to new all-time highs in 2025, and the world’s biggest investment banks are racing to update their forecasts.

What was once seen as a steady climb now looks more like a breakout. Let’s take a closer look at the latest projections and—more importantly—the reasons behind them. On August 19, UBS revised its gold outlook: The bank cited sticky U.S. inflation, slowing growth, expectations of Fed easing, de-dollarization, and strong investor & central bank demand (ETF inflows in H1 2025 were the strongest since 2010). With gold already hitting $3,570/oz, Morgan Stanley raised its forecast:

Their analysts pointed to geopolitical risks, rate cut expectations, and rising concerns over the Fed’s independence. Political pressures, they argue, are driving safe-haven flows into gold. Gold prices surged in 2025 due to trade tensions, central bank and ETF demand. What is the gold price forecast for 2026 and beyond? (Yahoo!Finance) - Gold (GC=F) prices, already at record levels, are likely headed higher as rate cut expectations grow and Fed independence comes into question, according to JPMorgan analysts. On Wednesday, gold futures touched a record high north of $3,620 per troy ounce while immediate delivery bullion rose to as much as $3,546, also a new high.

JPMorgan analysts forecast gold prices will rise further this year as investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates starting in September. Gold becomes more attractive to investors as falling rates reduce its competition with yield-bearing assets. "US Federal Reserve rate cuts in-line or exceeding expectations should catalyse further gold ETF inflows and thus drive gold prices to their year-end forecast of ~$3,675/oz," JPMorgan analyst Patrick Jones wrote in a note... From there, gold should reach $4,000 by the second quarter of next year and surge to $4,250 by the end of 2026, especially if the Trump administration's attempt to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook... Cook's departure could have wider implications for reshaping the central bank, the analysts said. "We believe any potential weakening of the US Federal Reserve's independence could have significant implications for long-term gold prices," Jones wrote.

JPMorgan analysts predict further increases in gold prices, which are already at record highs. This projection is attributed to growing expectations of rate cuts and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, according to a Yahoo Finance report. On Wednesday, the price of gold reached unprecedented heights. Gold futures, representing agreements to buy or sell gold at a predetermined price on a future date, surged to a record high, surpassing $3,640 per ounce. Simultaneously, spot gold, which refers to gold purchased for immediate physical delivery, also saw a significant increase, climbing to a new peak of $3,546 per ounce. Actual Gold price equal to 4562.00 dollars per 1 troy ounce.

Today's price range: 4518.00 - 4584.00. The previous day close: $4502.80, the change was +59.20, +1.31%. Gold price per 1 gram here. (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); Gold has continued its record setting pace, rising 26% in US dollar terms in the first half of 2025 – and reaching double digit returns across currencies (Table 1). A combination of a weaker US dollar, rangebound rates and a highly uncertain geoeconomic environment has resulted in strong investment demand. As we look forward, one of the questions investors continue to ask is whether gold has reached a peak or has enough fuel to push higher. Using our Gold Valuation Framework, we analyse what current market expectations imply for gold’s performance in the second half of 2025, as well as the drivers that could push gold higher, or lower, respectively... If economists and market participants are correct in their macro predictions, our analysis suggests that gold may move sideways with some possible upside – increasing an additional 0%-5% in the second half.

However, the economy rarely performs according to consensus. Should economic and financial conditions deteriorate, exacerbating stagflationary pressures and geoeconomic tensions, safe haven demand could significantly increase pushing gold 10%-15% higher from here. On the flipside, widespread and sustained conflict resolution – something that appears unlikely in the current environment – would see gold give back 12%-17% of this year’s gains. Hypothetical macroeconomic scenarios and their implied gold performance for H2 2025* *Based on market consensus and other indicators by Oxford Economics as of 30 June 2025. Impact on gold performance based on average annual prices as implied by the Gold Valuation Framework.

See Figure 3 for details.Source: Bloomberg, Oxford Economics, World Gold Council

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