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Gold Forecast 2026 4 900 Target As Top Long Commodity Market

Bonisiwe Shabane
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gold forecast 2026 4 900 target as top long commodity market

Ernest Hoffman is a Crypto and Market Reporter for Kitco News. He has over 15 years of experience as a writer, editor, broadcaster and producer for media, educational and cultural organizations. Ernest began working in market news in 2007, establishing the broadcast division of CEP News in Montreal, Canada, where he developed the fastest web-based audio news service in the world and produced economic news... He has a Bachelor's degree Specialization in Journalism from Concordia University. You can reach Ernest at 1-514-670-1339. A new analysis from Goldman Sachs reaffirms gold as its single favorite long commodity.

The firm's spot price target for the metal is $4,900 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026. This outlook follows a period of extreme volatility for precious metals. On October 21, 2025, gold and silver experienced their worst one-day drop in years, according to experts, though the long-term uptrend was described as remaining solid. Strong price pressure on both metals was noted that same day amid the high volatility. A former Federal Reserve insider issued a warning on October 21, 2025, cautioning of a potential systemic liquidity crisis. This analyst views a sell-off in gold as a major distress signal for financial markets.

Meanwhile, other market participants have expressed varied near-term views. One strategist from Marketgauges, Schneider, stated on October 21, 2025, that "its time to take profits on gold and silver," but is watching a specific trifecta of indicators. In a separate analysis from March 7, 2025, a Crescat Capital strategist presented gold revaluation charts suggesting prices could reach between $25,000 and $55,000 "if history rhymes," with silver poised for a breakout. Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform The global metals market is witnessing a significant divergence as structural demand fuels a bullish outlook for gold and copper, while cyclical headwinds pressure industrial materials. Goldman Sachs has doubled down on its "long gold" conviction, projecting a double-digit rally by 2026.

Gold's $4,900 Target: Goldman Sachs has identified a 14% upside risk for gold, forecasting prices to hit $4,900/oz by December 2026, driven by central bank demand and its role as a strategic reserve. Copper vs. Aluminum: The bank maintains a $15,000/ton target for copper by 2035, recommending a "long copper / short aluminum" pair trade to capitalize on the widening supply-demand gap. Bearish Pressure: Aluminum and iron ore are facing a "full oversupply cycle," with aluminum expected to drop nearly 20% by the end of 2026 as global surpluses expand. Following Goldman's optimistic report, gold price action has remained remarkably resilient. After reaching a daily high of $4,375.17—falling just short of the October all-time high of $4,381.84—the price faced a minor corrective rotation.

In a significant bullish declaration for the precious metals market, investment banking giant Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has dramatically raised its gold price forecast, now predicting the yellow metal will hit an astounding $4,900... This upward revision, announced around October 6-7, 2025, comes as gold has already shattered historical ceilings, with spot prices recently topping the $4,000 per ounce threshold, signaling a robust and potentially sustained rally. The revised outlook from one of Wall Street's most influential firms underscores a growing institutional conviction in gold's enduring appeal as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against economic uncertainties. This move is poised to fuel further investor interest in gold, potentially driving capital into gold-backed instruments and mining equities, while also reflecting broader concerns about inflation, geopolitical stability, and the future trajectory of... Goldman Sachs' (NYSE: GS) decision to elevate its gold price target to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 marks a substantial increase from its previous forecast of $4,300, representing a 14% jump in its... This revised projection, publicly reported around October 6-7, 2025, was made amidst a "breakneck rally" that saw spot gold touch an intraday high of $3,977.19 per ounce, with gold futures even surpassing the $4,000...

This historic surge has pushed gold's year-to-date gains in 2025 to approximately 51%, highlighting the intense upward momentum. The investment bank attributes its heightened confidence to a confluence of powerful and "sticky" drivers. Analysts, including Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven, point to persistent and robust inflows into Western gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as a key factor, demonstrating sustained private investor interest. Even more impactful is the relentless buying spree by global central banks, particularly those in emerging markets, which are actively diversifying their reserves away from traditional assets. Goldman Sachs anticipates this central bank demand to remain significant, forecasting an average of 80 metric tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026. Another critical pillar supporting Goldman's bullish stance is the anticipation of substantial interest rate cuts by the U.S.

Federal Reserve. The firm projects a 100-basis-point reduction in the federal funds rate by mid-2026. Such a dovish shift in monetary policy would significantly lower real yields, thereby decreasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and enhancing its attractiveness to investors. Compounding these factors are ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and a weakening U.S. dollar, both of which traditionally bolster gold's safe-haven appeal. (Catch all the US News, UK News, Canada News, International Breaking News Events, and Latest News Updates on The Economic Times.)

Download The Economic Times News App to get Daily International News Updates. (Catch all the US News, UK News, Canada News, International Breaking News Events, and Latest News Updates on The Economic Times.) Download The Economic Times News App to get Daily International News Updates. Gold prices have climbed steadily in recent years, shattering the long-held view among many investors that gold is simply a store of value. This trend has become even more pronounced in 2025, with gold repeatedly hitting new all-time highs and emerging as a core asset for global capital allocation. At the end of 2025, Goldman Sachs released a landmark research report, sharply raising its gold price target for the end of 2026 from $4,300 per ounce to $4,900 per ounce.

This move not only highlights Wall Street’s strong bullish stance on gold but is also seen as a signal for a new long-term bull market cycle. With geopolitical uncertainty on the rise and increased volatility in dollar assets, more countries are accelerating their gold reserve accumulation. In recent years, central bank gold purchases have hit record highs, and this strong trend continues into 2025. As a result, gold’s “base demand” keeps rising. Gold price predictions for 2026 indicate a strong bullish trend with prices expected to rise significantly. Major financial institutions forecast gold prices ranging roughly from $4,000 to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.

Goldman Sachs leads with the most aggressive projection of $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, citing strong ETF inflows, central bank purchasing, and continued geopolitical and economic uncertainties as key drivers. Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan predict gold prices around $4,000 per ounce during 2026, while technical analysis from InvestingHaven supports potential price milestones such as $4,200 or higher in the second half of the year. Factors fueling this outlook include anticipated Fed rate cuts, dollar weakness, inflation concerns, and structural demand for gold as a safe-haven asset and portfolio diversifier. Overall consensus: Continued structural bull market potentially leading to historic price levels The consensus among experts is a continued structural bull market for gold potentially leading to historic price levels through 2026, with upside risks prevailing over downside.

This represents a paradigm shift from tactical safe-haven positioning to strategic long-term asset allocation driven by fundamental monetary system changes. For current gold prices and real-time market data, visit our live gold price tracker. The dramatic increase in central bank gold acquisition represents one of the most significant structural shifts in precious metals markets. Understanding this phenomenon provides critical insight into long-term price support mechanisms that underpin the bullish 2026 forecasts. Gold is closing out 2025 with price action that's forcing traders to recalibrate their usual reference levels. With gold already at record highs near $4,497, the market has the feel of a late-cycle move marked by strong momentum, shallow pullbacks, and many late buyers chasing breakouts.

That's the framework traders must heed as they approach 2026. When gold rallies this strongly, it can continue to surge even when indicators appear overextended. At the same time, the first real shift in rates, the dollar, or risk mood can turn a vertical rally into a fast, ugly retracement. In the following forecast article, we present a practical outlook for 2026 based on the latest market data, positioning indicators, and a comprehensive technical map featuring tradable levels. Overall technical bias: Bullish, with overheating risk. Short-term (next 1–2 weeks): The price can maintain a bid stance while above the $4,474–$4,462 pivot support zone.

A clean push and hold above $4,503–$4,516 opens continuation risk. Gold entered 2026 at levels few institutions believed possible just two years earlier. An extraordinary 2025 rally driven by aggressive central-bank buying, persistent geopolitical tension, and expectations of monetary easing pushed prices to all-time highs above $4,300 per ounce and forced banks to rewrite their outlooks. This article consolidates the most authoritative projections from major banks and respected analysts, along with the relevant forward-looking forecasts from earlier institutional research, so you can track how projections have changed over time. The chart below shows real-time gold spot prices tracked by Lear Capital and updated throughout the trading day. Before gold accelerated far beyond expectations, several institutions issued more conservative targets.

Some of these remain useful as reference points that illustrate how sharply sentiment has changed. These earlier forecasts now read like the first chapter in a much larger price repricing. By the end of 2025, gold had sailed past $4,000, prompting an industry-wide reset of forward expectations.

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The Firm's Spot Price Target For The Metal Is $4,900

The firm's spot price target for the metal is $4,900 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026. This outlook follows a period of extreme volatility for precious metals. On October 21, 2025, gold and silver experienced their worst one-day drop in years, according to experts, though the long-term uptrend was described as remaining solid. Strong price pressure on both metals was noted that same day ami...

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Gold's $4,900 Target: Goldman Sachs has identified a 14% upside risk for gold, forecasting prices to hit $4,900/oz by December 2026, driven by central bank demand and its role as a strategic reserve. Copper vs. Aluminum: The bank maintains a $15,000/ton target for copper by 2035, recommending a "long copper / short aluminum" pair trade to capitalize on the widening supply-demand gap. Bearish Press...

In A Significant Bullish Declaration For The Precious Metals Market,

In a significant bullish declaration for the precious metals market, investment banking giant Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has dramatically raised its gold price forecast, now predicting the yellow metal will hit an astounding $4,900... This upward revision, announced around October 6-7, 2025, comes as gold has already shattered historical ceilings, with spot prices recently topping the $4,000 per oun...