Gold Goldman Sachs Predicts Major Upside Through 2026

Bonisiwe Shabane

-Dec 28, 2025, 12:12 AM

gold goldman sachs predicts major upside through 2026

The price of gold is forecast by Goldman Sachs Research to rise 6% through the middle of 2026 (as of September 24), underpinned by fresh demand from key groups of buyers who have contributed... The precious metal has risen more than 40% in 2025 and is on pace for its third-straight year of double-digits gains. The gold price is predicted to rise to $4,000 per troy ounce by the middle of next year (up from $3,772 on September 24), Goldman Sachs Research analyst Lina Thomas writes in the team’s... Their gold price forecast is driven by strong structural demand from central banks and easing from the US Federal Reserve (which supports ETF demand for gold). Buyers of gold fall into two broad groups, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Conviction buyers tend to purchase the yellow metal consistently, regardless of the price, and based on their view on the economy or to hedge risk.

These include central banks, exchange-traded funds, and speculators. Their thesis-driven flows set the price direction. As a rule of thumb, every 100 tonnes of net purchases by these conviction holders corresponds to a 1.7% rise in the gold price. By contrast, opportunistic buyers such as households in emerging markets step in when they believe the price is right. They may provide a floor under prices on the way down and resistance on the way up. Ernest Hoffman is a Crypto and Market Reporter for Kitco News.

He has over 15 years of experience as a writer, editor, broadcaster and producer for media, educational and cultural organizations. Ernest began working in market news in 2007, establishing the broadcast division of CEP News in Montreal, Canada, where he developed the fastest web-based audio news service in the world and produced economic news... He has a Bachelor's degree Specialization in Journalism from Concordia University. You can reach Ernest at 1-514-670-1339. The global metals market is witnessing a significant divergence as structural demand fuels a bullish outlook for gold and copper, while cyclical headwinds pressure industrial materials. Goldman Sachs has doubled down on its "long gold" conviction, projecting a double-digit rally by 2026.

Gold's $4,900 Target: Goldman Sachs has identified a 14% upside risk for gold, forecasting prices to hit $4,900/oz by December 2026, driven by central bank demand and its role as a strategic reserve. Copper vs. Aluminum: The bank maintains a $15,000/ton target for copper by 2035, recommending a "long copper / short aluminum" pair trade to capitalize on the widening supply-demand gap. Bearish Pressure: Aluminum and iron ore are facing a "full oversupply cycle," with aluminum expected to drop nearly 20% by the end of 2026 as global surpluses expand. Following Goldman's optimistic report, gold price action has remained remarkably resilient. After reaching a daily high of $4,375.17—falling just short of the October all-time high of $4,381.84—the price faced a minor corrective rotation.

(Catch all the US News, UK News, Canada News, International Breaking News Events, and Latest News Updates on The Economic Times.) Download The Economic Times News App to get Daily International News Updates. (Catch all the US News, UK News, Canada News, International Breaking News Events, and Latest News Updates on The Economic Times.) Download The Economic Times News App to get Daily International News Updates. Gold has been on a tear this year, and now a Goldman Sachs survey shows many investors think the precious metal will hit a new all-time high of $5,000 by the end of 2026. Gold prices have rallied 58.6% year-to-date, and broke through the landmark $4,000 level for the first time on Oct.

8. In a survey of more than 900 institutional investor clients on Goldman Sachs' Marquee platform, 36% of respondents — the largest cohort — expect gold to maintain its momentum and exceed $5,000 per troy... A further 33% expect the commodity to reach between $4,500 and $5,000, according to the poll, which was conducted between Nov. 12-14. More than 70% of institutional investors see gold rising next year, Goldman Sachs said. In contrast, just over 5% of those polled see prices pulling back to between $3,500 and $4,000 over the next 12 months.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have forecast a continued surge in gold prices and persistent weakness in oil markets into 2026, according to a research note dated December 18. The bank's base case is for gold to rally to a record $4,900 an ounce, with risks tilted to the upside, while it expects the global crude benchmark Brent to average $56 a barrel... Commodities as a whole are on course for a modest advance this year, but the sector's climb masks huge variations. Gold has risen on central-bank buying, interest-rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, and inflows to exchange-traded funds. Falling US interest rates have led ETF investors "to start competing for limited bullion with central banks," the analysts wrote.

"We expect the same two drivers -- structurally high central-bank demand and cyclical support from Fed cuts -- to lift the gold price further." By contrast, oil faces downside risks. "Barring large supply disruptions or OPEC production cuts, lower oil prices in 2026 will likely be required to rebalance the market," they said. "We expect the 2026 surplus to lead to an acceleration in OECD commercial stocks builds." On Friday, Brent traded below $60 a barrel, set for a second weekly loss, while gold was near $4,323... Among other forecasts, Goldman Sachs flagged lower natural-gas prices on the "largest ever wave" of supply; that copper would outperform aluminum; and weaker iron ore amid burgeoning mine production. Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

Gold Goldman Sachs Predicts Major Upside Through 2026

People Also Search

The Price Of Gold Is Forecast By Goldman Sachs Research

These Include Central Banks, Exchange-traded Funds, And Speculators. Their Thesis-driven

He Has Over 15 Years Of Experience As A Writer,

Gold's $4,900 Target: Goldman Sachs Has Identified A 14% Upside

(Catch All The US News, UK News, Canada News, International