Agi Could Now Arrive As Early As 2026 Live Science

Bonisiwe Shabane

-Dec 27, 2025, 9:47 PM

agi could now arrive as early as 2026 live science

Predictions on the dawn of the AI singularity vary wildly but scientists generally say it will come before 2040, according to new analysis, slashing 20 years off previous predictions. When you purchase through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. Here’s how it works. The rise of artificial general intelligence (AGI) — an artificial intelligence (AI) system with superhuman intelligence that can perform well at various tasks — is a matter of when, not if, according to a... The updated analysis, conducted Feb. 18 by Cem Dilmegani, principal analyst at AIMultiple Research, has combed through approximately 8,600 predictions from scientists, AI experts and entrepreneurs between 2009 and 2023 to understand when experts believe it may happen.

A subsection of the analysis encompassed 10 surveys that queried a total of 5,288 AI researchers and experts. Based on an averaging of the data, there's a 50% probability that we would achieve human-level intelligence in machines at some point between 2040 and 2061, the analysis found. We analyzed 8,590 scientists’, leading entrepreneurs’, and the community’s predictions for quick answers on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) / singularity timeline: Explore key predictions on AGI from experts like Sam Altman and Demis Hassabis, insights from major AI surveys on AGI timelines, and arguments for and against the feasibility of AGI: This timeline outlines the anticipated year of the singularity, based on insights gathered from 15 surveys, including responses from 8,590 AI researchers, scientists, and participants in prediction markets: As you can see above, survey respondents are increasingly expecting the singularity to occur earlier than previously expected.

Below you can see the studies and predictions that make up this timeline, or skip to understanding the singularity. A deep, human level look at Google AI glasses 2026, what they do, who they are for, and how they might change daily life. Clear, human guide to AI trends 2026, covering agents, safety, healthcare, research, code, and quantum, and how they impact you. Get a clear breakdown of the OpenAI GPT-5.2 release, how it answers Google’s Gemini 3, and what it changes for real users. Discover how an AI self-replicating botnet could redefine cybersecurity risks and what you can do to protect your digital assets. You’ve seen the movies where a rogue computer becomes self-aware and decides humanity is the problem.

It’s a scary thought, one that can cause anxiety Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) — a concept that refers to AI systems capable of performing a wide range of intellectual tasks at a level equal to or exceeding human intelligence — has been a... While AGI was once thought to be a distant goal, new predictions suggest it could arrive much sooner than previously anticipated. A recent analysis of thousands of expert opinions, conducted by AIMultiple Research, has significantly altered the predicted timeline for AGI. Some researchers, including prominent AI figures like Dario Amodei, CEO of AI company Anthropic, believe AGI could be achieved as early as 2026. However, other experts remain skeptical, arguing that current AI architectures lack fundamental components necessary for true human-level intelligence.

For years, predictions about the arrival of AGI have varied widely. In the past, some AI experts estimated that AGI might emerge between 2060 and 2080, while others doubted it would ever be possible. However, a recent large-scale analysis suggests a much earlier timeline. Conducted on February 18, 2025, by AIMultiple Research analyst Cem Dilmegani, this study reviewed 8,600 predictions from scientists, AI researchers, and technology entrepreneurs spanning from 2009 to 2023. The data was further refined using a subset of 10 surveys, covering the opinions of 5,288 AI researchers and experts. According to the averaged results, there is now a 50% probability that AGI will emerge between 2040 and 2061.

This represents a significant acceleration of previous estimates, which had placed AGI’s arrival much further into the future. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has transitioned from an abstract concept to a focal point in the tech industry recently, sparking intense debate among experts. The rise of AGI is a matter of when, not if. UPP’s recent updates suggest that AGI could possibly emerge as early as 2026, though opinions vary widely. Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is an area of artificial intelligence (AI) research in which scientists aim to create a computer system that is generally smart as or smarter than humans. These AGI systems could be self-understanding and self-control – including the ability to edit and process their own code - and be able to learn to solve problems like humans autonomously.

The term "Artificial General Intelligence" was first introduced in a 2007 essay collection edited by computer scientist Ben Goertzel and AI researcher Cassio Pennachin. However, the idea has been around for decades, shaping AI's historical development and frequently appearing in science fiction literature and films. However, in 2025, signals about the arrival of AGI and the rising topics about it are likely to appear. “I believe that the right time to start preparing for A.G.I. is now”, said by Kevin Roose - a technology columnist and a co-host of the New York Times tech podcast “Hard Fork”. Reputable surveys in the technology industry are also showing many “conflicting” opinions and predictions from AI expert, generally in 3 different ways:

Agi Could Now Arrive As Early As 2026 Live Science

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