University of Kwazulu-Natal

When Could Agi Arrive New Forecasts Put Dates On The Table Msn

Bonisiwe Shabane
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when could agi arrive new forecasts put dates on the table msn

From the forecasting site Metaculus, full title: "When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?" From the forecasting site Metaculus, full title: "When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?" From the forecasting site Metaculus, full title: "When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?" From the prediction market Manifold Markets, full title: "AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]" From the prediction market Kalshi.

Shows probability (0-100%) that AI passes the Turing test before 2030. We analyzed 8,590 scientists’, leading entrepreneurs’, and the community’s predictions for quick answers on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) / singularity timeline: Explore key predictions on AGI from experts like Sam Altman and Demis Hassabis, insights from major AI surveys on AGI timelines, and arguments for and against the feasibility of AGI: This timeline outlines the anticipated year of the singularity, based on insights gathered from 15 surveys, including responses from 8,590 AI researchers, scientists, and participants in prediction markets: As you can see above, survey respondents are increasingly expecting the singularity to occur earlier than previously expected. Below you can see the studies and predictions that make up this timeline, or skip to understanding the singularity.

As a non-expert, it would be great if there were experts who could tell us when we should expect artificial general intelligence (AGI) to arrive. There are only different groups of experts with different weaknesses. This article is an overview of what five different types of experts say about when we’ll reach AGI, and what we can learn from them (that feeds into my full article on forecasting AI). The leaders of AI companies are saying that AGI arrives in 2–5 years, and appear to have recently shortened their estimates. This is easy to dismiss. This group is obviously selected to be bullish on AI and wants to hype their own work and raise funding.

We’re keeping them honest with the Sherwood News AGI Prediction Tracker. At least that’s what a lot of big names in AI are saying. While there isn’t even an agreed upon definition of what AGI — artificial general intelligence — is, these AI guys are confident enough to say it is going to happen, and they know when... The definition of AGI varies widely. OpenAI’s charter defines it as “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work,” while Elon Musk says it’s AI that is “smarter than the smartest human.” Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei thinks... But the core idea is an AI system that is better than humans at most tasks.

The trick is, once someone claims to have achieved AGI, it isn’t clear everyone will agree that they have. And yes, we did look at what many non-male AI experts have been saying about AGI, but most of them aren't making predictions because a lot of them don't think AGI is a thing... Note to Readers: In light of recent news, we have shifted the scope of our discussion and redirected our interest toward timeline considerations for AGI deployment (not arrival) and immediate AGI impacts on society. For readers who haven’t read the first two parts of this series, we strongly advise doing so since we’ll return to concepts discussed previously. In part 1 of this series, we investigated current progress toward AGI followed by examples of non-human intelligence intended to dismantle our anthropomorphic biases. In part 2, we focused on the concept of AGI evaluation, breaking down four distinct evaluation frameworks/benchmarks and providing several bold suggestions for future AGI evaluation and design criteria.

In this final segment, we’ll anticipate the forces that may impact AGI deployment timelines and conclude by envisioning the short-term and large-scale impacts of an early AGI arrival. We’ll begin with a summary and discussion of the potentially revolutionary AGI advancements that have occurred over the last month, critically analyzing them to maintain a grounded and realistic perspective. Next, we’ll operate on the assumption that AGI has arrived, examining the core factors we think will affect AGI deployment. We’ll conclude by exploring a series of notable and immediate consequences we expect AGI will inspire should it become commercially accessible within the next year. Whether we like it or not, nascent AGI might already be here. On December 20th, the high-compute version of OpenAI’s newest and most advanced model, o3—currently undergoing rigorous pre-deployment safety testing—passed the ARC-AGI-1 benchmark with a score of 88% (the low-compute version scored 76%, four points...

By contrast, only a few months earlier, OpenAI’s high-compute chain-of-thought reasoning o1 model scored 32%. Frankly, this quantifiable and exponential leap in intelligence capabilities is beyond remarkable. Nonetheless, while the ARC-AGI-1 benchmark is generally seen as a “gold standard” for AGI evaluation, we should maintain a healthy skepticism regarding AGI’s arrival—o3 still fails at simple human tasks, and ARC claims that... In recent years, the promise of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)––AI capable of performing any intellectual task that a human being can––has captured the public imagination and ignited fierce debates across technological, industrial, and political... Major tech CEOs and renowned AI experts have offered divergent timelines and predictions regarding when AGI might become a reality. This article examines the detailed landscape of these predictions while exploring the technological challenges, societal implications, and economic consequences of AGI development.

We will also review insights from key players such as DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, and others to provide a comprehensive analysis of the trajectory toward human-level and superintelligent... AGI is typically defined as an AI system that exhibits the full range of human cognitive abilities. Unlike narrow AI—which is designed to excel at a specific task such as image recognition or language translation—AGI must generalize its learning across multiple domains, adapt to unforeseen scenarios, and ultimately match or even... As Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis famously explained, AGI would be “a system that’s able to exhibit all the complicated capabilities that humans can” (“Google DeepMind CEO Predicts A Decade-Long Wait For AI To... Despite significant progress in language models and algorithmic planning, current systems remain “very passive,” lacking the breadth and depth required to navigate the complexity of the real world. Transforming these narrow successes into a robust, general intelligence that understands context, reason, and abstract concepts stands as one of the most formidable tasks in the field.

Tech leaders across the globe have provided a wide range of forecasts regarding the timeline for achieving AGI. On one end of the spectrum, some experts are optimistic about early breakthroughs, while on the other, more cautious voices argue for a longer developmental horizon. Demis Hassabis of Google DeepMind has been one of the most measured voices in the arena. Speaking at a recent briefing in London, Hassabis predicted that the first forms of AGI might emerge in the next five to ten years (“Human-level AI will be here in 5 to 10 years,... Although he acknowledged that current AI technologies excel at certain specific tasks, he stressed that significant research remains before these systems can operate with the generalized intelligence of a human being.

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