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2025 Nfl Playoff Picture Scenarios And Standings

Bonisiwe Shabane
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2025 nfl playoff picture scenarios and standings

With two weeks left in the NFL season, the playoff field is mostly set: Ten teams have clinched playoff berths and four more are still available. Here’s how the NFL playoff picture looks heading into Week 17: 1. Broncos (12-3) If they win out, they’re the No. 1 seed in the AFC. 2.

Patriots (12-3) Would lose the common-games tiebreaker to the Broncos. 3. Jaguars (11-4) The clear favorites in the AFC South. 4. Steelers (9-6) In the driver’s seat in the AFC North. The Denver Broncos need two victories to secure the No.

1 seed in the AFC. One of those two needed wins is expected to come on Christmas Day against the Kansas City Chiefs. Denver can lock up the AFC West title as early as Saturday if the Los Angeles Chargers lose to the Houston Texans. Chargers-Texans is the most consequential AFC game of Week 17 because it will affect two divisional races and wild-card seeding. The Chicago Bears-San Francisco 49ers clash on Sunday night carries a similar significance. Welcome to The Athletic’s 2025 NFL Playoff Picture Simulator, where you’ll find everything you need to know about the NFL standings.

From the No. 1 seed in each conference to the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft, you can explore all the ways your favorite team’s season could end. The tables above represent a view of the standings if the season ended today, along with our best guess for the final playoff picture (with teams ordered by projected win totals, and ties accounting... Below, you’ll find much more detailed estimates for all 32 NFL teams. All these estimates are powered by Austin Mock’s NFL Projection Model and helped us create a visual guide of every possible scenario for Week 17.

You can read more about this tool and how it works right here, and send in your questions to AskAustin@theathletic.com. About the simulator: We estimate odds by randomly simulating the remainder of the season thousands of times and counting how often each team makes the playoffs, gets the No. 1 seed, the No. 1 draft pick and so on. We estimate each team’s probability of winning each remaining game using a statistical forecast that incorporates a host of data, including team records, roster changes, weather, game location and more advanced measures like expected... By Ryan Best, David Haye, Elliot Jordan, Junghye Kim, Austin Mock, Matt Myers, Thomas Oide, Laura Pelton, Yuriko Schumacher and Oliver Viehweger

Adapted from The New York Times’s NFL Playoff Simulator. 🏈 5 AFC playoff spots available • 2 NFC playoff spots available 14 teams make the NFL playoffs each season – 7 from the AFC and 7 from the NFC. Each conference’s playoff bracket includes four division winners (seeded 1-4) and three wild card teams (seeded 5-7). The top seed in each conference earns a first-round bye. Playoff seeding is determined by win-loss record, with tiebreakers applied when necessary.

The four division winners are seeded 1-4 based on their records, regardless of wild card team records. Seeds 5-7 go to the three non-division winners with the best records. Tiebreakers include head-to-head results, division record, common games, conference record, and strength of victory. “In The Hunt” refers to the seven teams in each conference that currently hold playoff positions. If the regular season ended today, these teams would qualify for the postseason. However, with games remaining, these positions can change weekly based on game results and tiebreakers.

“On The Bubble” describes teams currently outside the playoff picture but still mathematically alive for a postseason berth. These teams (typically seeds 8-16) need to win games and have other results fall their way to climb into a playoff spot before the regular season ends. Entering Week 17 of the 2025 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri, with major assists from Special Projects Lead Tom Blair and Manager of NFL Research Jack Andrade, digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff... During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds. For more context around terms like "If win," "If lose" and "playoff leverage" click here.

NOTE: All probabilities presented are current as of 1:45 p.m. ET on Dec. 23 unless otherwise noted below. 10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) 11. Miami Dolphins (6-9) 12.

Cincinnati Bengals (5-10) 13. New York Jets (3-12) 16. Tennessee Titans (3-12) 15. Cleveland Browns (3-12) 16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-13) 9.

Minnesota Vikings (7-8) 11. Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) 12. Atlanta Falcons (6-9) 13. New Orleans Saints (5-10) 14. Washington Commanders (4-11) 15. Arizona Cardinals (3-12) 16.

New York Giants (2-13) If you're seeking high drama, the games below are the ones to track, featuring the most notable blend of seeding/division implications and combined playoff leverages in Week 17. Watch local and prime-time games live on NFL+ -- and, of course, catch every touchdown from every Sunday game on NFL RedZone (with NFL+ Premium). We’re getting to the end of the 2025 NFL regular season. Through the Christmas Day tripleheader, the NFL playoff picture is coming into focus. The Broncos beat the Chiefs to stay atop the AFC standings, and the Lions lost to both eliminate themselves from playoff contention and clinch a spot for the Packers.

Going forward, Saturday’s games should provide more clarity as well. If the Ravens beat the Packers at Lambeau Field, they’ll remain in the hunt for an AFC North title and the Bears will earn the NFC North. With a Baltimore loss, the Steelers would clinch the division and Green Bay would remain alive for a division title. In the Texans-Chargers game, Los Angeles is relegated to a wild-card berth with a loss while Houston would clinch a playoff berth with a win. However, a Chargers win would force a winner-take-all in Denver next week for the AFC West. x Team has clinched a playoff berth.

y Team has clinched their division title. e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention. k Team has been knocked out of division title contention. NFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: NYG, ARI, WAS, NO, ATL, TB, DAL, DET, MIN, GB, CAR, PHI AFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: LV, CLE, TEN, NYJ, CIN, KC,... CHI has clinched the NFC North division title. DEN has clinched the AFC West division title.

JAX cannot clinch the AFC South division title this week. DET has been eliminated from playoff contention.

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