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2025 Nfl Playoff Picture Updated Odds Seeds Draft Order Espn

Bonisiwe Shabane
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2025 nfl playoff picture updated odds seeds draft order espn

When we look back at the 2025 regular season, we may be pointing to Week 14 as the pivotal moment that sculpted the playoff picture. Coming into the weekend, the slate had the promise of being an inflection point with multiple divisional matchups on deck between clubs in the thick of the playoff race. That included Steelers-Ravens duking it out for first place in the AFC North, along with Bears-Packers squaring off at Lambeau Field in an NFC North duel, and Colts-Jaguars jockeying for position atop the AFC... And those games did not disappoint. Pittsburgh and Green Bay both pulled off wins to jump back into first place in their respective division. Meanwhile, Jacksonville held its spot atop the AFC South after taking down Indy, but the headline from that contest was Daniel Jones leaving the game due to an Achilles injury.

That further shakes up the playoff picture in the AFC. With Week 14 complete, let's take a look at this latest snapshot and see who would be in and out of the playoffs. On top of the standings, we'll also run through the entire playoff picture, including the remaining schedules for each primary contender. This is the NFL playoff picture as it stands, with the following teams tabbed for postseason spots: Welcome to The Athletic’s 2025 NFL Playoff Picture Simulator, where you’ll find everything you need to know about the NFL standings. From the No.

1 seed in each conference to the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft, you can explore all the ways your favorite team’s season could end. The tables above represent a view of the standings if the season ended today, along with our best guess for the final playoff picture (with teams ordered by projected win totals, and ties accounting... Below, you’ll find much more detailed estimates for all 32 NFL teams. All these estimates are powered by Austin Mock’s NFL Projection Model and helped us create a visual guide of every possible scenario for Week 17. You can read more about this tool and how it works right here, and send in your questions to AskAustin@theathletic.com.

About the simulator: We estimate odds by randomly simulating the remainder of the season thousands of times and counting how often each team makes the playoffs, gets the No. 1 seed, the No. 1 draft pick and so on. We estimate each team’s probability of winning each remaining game using a statistical forecast that incorporates a host of data, including team records, roster changes, weather, game location and more advanced measures like expected... By Ryan Best, David Haye, Elliot Jordan, Junghye Kim, Austin Mock, Matt Myers, Thomas Oide, Laura Pelton, Yuriko Schumacher and Oliver Viehweger Adapted from The New York Times’s NFL Playoff Simulator.

🏈 5 AFC playoff spots available • 2 NFC playoff spots available 14 teams make the NFL playoffs each season – 7 from the AFC and 7 from the NFC. Each conference’s playoff bracket includes four division winners (seeded 1-4) and three wild card teams (seeded 5-7). The top seed in each conference earns a first-round bye. Playoff seeding is determined by win-loss record, with tiebreakers applied when necessary. The four division winners are seeded 1-4 based on their records, regardless of wild card team records.

Seeds 5-7 go to the three non-division winners with the best records. Tiebreakers include head-to-head results, division record, common games, conference record, and strength of victory. “In The Hunt” refers to the seven teams in each conference that currently hold playoff positions. If the regular season ended today, these teams would qualify for the postseason. However, with games remaining, these positions can change weekly based on game results and tiebreakers. “On The Bubble” describes teams currently outside the playoff picture but still mathematically alive for a postseason berth.

These teams (typically seeds 8-16) need to win games and have other results fall their way to climb into a playoff spot before the regular season ends. Ryan Clark predicts that if the Ravens make the playoffs they'll be "one-and-done." (1:07) The 2025 season feels like the supreme example of NFL parity. We're somehow in Week 13 with two teams hitting double digits in the win column: the 10-2 Broncos, who held on for dear life to beat the Commanders on Sunday night, and the 10-2... There are bad teams because there are always bad teams, of course, but this has been a year where we can poke a hole in any franchise with Super Bowl aspirations. The upside in a league without many great teams is that there are a lot of pretty good teams competing for division titles.

This time last season, it felt like three divisions in the AFC and one in the NFC had already been decided, and there were only seven teams in the AFC with a winning record,... This season? It feels like every division might still be up for grabs. The biggest divisional lead with five weeks to go is two games (Broncos in the AFC West and Patriots in the AFC East). Teams such as the Chiefs and Lions -- unquestioned Super Bowl contenders before the season -- are on the outside looking in for the postseason. There's still so much to be decided as we hit December, and that's going to make for some exciting playoff races down the stretch.

Let's take a look at the closest of those races and how Week 13 impacted what's to come. I'll hit the two closest races in both the NFC and the AFC. And I'll start in the NFC West, where a team that appeared set to pull away from the pack fell right back into a three-team fight for both the division title and a potential... (I included chances to win the division for each team via ESPN's Football Power Index, or FPI.) Entering Week 15 of the 2025 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri, with major assists from Special Projects Lead Tom Blair and Manager of NFL Research Jack Andrade, digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff... During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation.

Visit NFL.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds. For more context around terms like "If win," "If lose" and "playoff leverage" click here. NOTE: All probabilities presented are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 9 unless otherwise noted below. (Teams with less than 10% probability to earn a playoff spot.)

13. New York Jets (3-10) 14. Cleveland Browns (3-10) 15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11) 16. Tennessee Titans (2-11) 12.

Atlanta Falcons (4-9) 13. Arizona Cardinals (3-10) 14. New Orleans Saints (3-10) 15. Washington Commanders (3-10) 16. New York Giants (2-11) The 2025 NFL playoff race intensified as Week 16 concluded, with multiple teams clinching postseason spots and setting the stage for a dramatic final week of the regular season.

Updated odds and seeds reveal tight battles for division titles and wild-card positions, while the draft order for non-playoff teams begins to take shape. In the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks (12-3) hold the top seed with a 47% chance to maintain it, per The Athletic’s playoff predictor, after clinching a playoff berth. The Chicago Bears (11-4) secured their spot and control the NFC North with an 89% probability, while the Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) repeated as NFC East champions. The Carolina Panthers (8-7) surged into first place in the NFC South with a 49% shot at the division, but face a crucial finale against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8), who still have a... The San Francisco 49ers (11-4) and Los Angeles Rams (11-4) are locked in a tight race for the NFC West, with the 49ers having a 28% probability for the No. 1 seed.

The AFC picture sees the Denver Broncos (12-3) leading with a 46% chance at the top seed, but they must navigate a tough final stretch to clinch the AFC West. The New England Patriots (12-3) punched their playoff ticket and have an 82% likelihood to win the AFC East, while the Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) are firmly in control of the AFC South at 82%. The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) dominate the AFC North with a 91% probability, and the Los Angeles Chargers (11-4) and Buffalo Bills (11-4) have secured spots but face uphill battles for higher seeds. The Houston Texans (10-5) are near locks for the playoffs but trail in the division race. Clinching scenarios abound in Week 17: for example, the Seahawks can secure the NFC’s No. 1 seed with a win combined with specific outcomes from the Rams and 49ers-Bears game.

In the AFC, the Broncos can clinch the top seed with a win and losses or ties from the Chargers, Patriots, Bills, and Jaguars. These scenarios highlight the high stakes as teams jockey for home-field advantage and byes. Updated odds from sources like Yahoo Sports and CBS Sports show shifting probabilities, with the Rams’ chances for the NFC’s top seed dropping to 12% after Week 16, and the Indianapolis Colts (8-7) clinging... The draft order for non-playoff teams is crystallizing, with eliminated squads like the Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) and Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) positioning for higher picks in the 2025 NFL Draft, adding another layer of...

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