University of Kwazulu-Natal

Will Jayden Daniels Experience A Sophomore Slump In 2025

Bonisiwe Shabane
-
will jayden daniels experience a sophomore slump in 2025

This week, there was more talk about Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels potentially experiencing an NFL sophomore slump. But in this case, the two hosts weren't buying the talk of Daniels falling into the dreaded sophomore slump. Nope, Robert Mays and Derrick Klassen on their "The Athletic Football Show" podcast actually held firmly that they don't see Daniels falling off drastically. For example, they discussed how NFL teams will adjust their strategies this year and employ different blitzes against Daniels. Thus, yes, a quarterback's performance against the blitz can vary from year to year. When suggesting that Daniels could fall back slightly against the blitz, a reference came to how, when being blitzed late in a game, he threw a deep touchdown.

That no doubt was referring to the MNF win, when Daniels connected with Terry McLaurin down the right sideline, in the end zone, ensuring the Commanders' road win in Cincinnati over the Bengals. It was admitted that though Daniels might not maintain the rate to make a large gain against the blitz, the two ended up agreeing that they actually can easily see Daniels making enough of... Comical is not the accurate description when listening, however, it was evident that both hosts agreed that when watching the film of the 2024 games, Daniels showed more than a few times that under... In the 2024 offseason, NFL teams selected six quarterbacks in the first 12 picks of the draft, by far the most ever. As rookies, these passers had their ups and downs. One carried his team to the NFC championship game.

One nearly set the record for sacks taken in a season. One never got a chance to play due to an injury. Where do these players stand going into year two? Is this group still set to change the league—or were NFL teams overzealous when they drafted these guys back in April of last year? Welcome to Sophomore QB Week at The Ringer. This week, we’re breaking down the play and futures of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., J.J.

McCarthy, and Bo Nix. Today, we’re looking at Daniels, who won the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award after his standout season in Washington. Since 2001, 103 quarterbacks have attempted at least 100 passes as rookies. Of those rookie passers, just 10 have netted at least 50 expected points added for their teams. And of those 10, just two have improved on their EPA totals in their second seasons. Seven were worse as sophomores.

The final quarterback in that sample is to be determined. That’s Jayden Daniels, Washington’s superstar passer who is looking to avoid the dreaded “sophomore slump” in 2025. But here’s the good news for Daniels: Sophomore slumps aren’t real. Quarterbacks of all levels of experience tend to do worse following a great season, not just sophomores. That small sample above shows seven out of nine elite rookies declining in their second year—similar to what we see from veterans coming off big seasons. Since 2001, 271 quarterbacks have totaled 50 EPA or more for their teams.

Of the 249 of those QBs who went on to attempt at least 100 passes in their next season, 179 have seen their EPA numbers decline—71.9 percent. Dive a little deeper into the numbers, and a similar pattern emerges. Rookie quarterbacks who totaled more than 50 dropback EPA declined by an average of 31.8 EPA in their subsequent seasons. All QBs who totaled more than 50 EPA in one season saw an average decline of 33.1 EPA the next. Break these samples down into a few EPA cohorts—I’m choosing above 50 EPA, zero to 50 EPA, negative-50 to zero EPA, and below negative-50 EPA—and the pattern of decline/improvement is remarkably consistent: Jayden Daniels heads into the 2025 season coming off an incredible rookie campaign.

In his first season, Daniels led the Washington Commanders to the NFC championship game for the first time in decades, excelled in the clutch by throwing multiple game-winning touchdown passes, and set the rookie... He proved unfazed by the moment, whether it was throwing a Hail Mary to defeat the Chicago Bears or taking down the No. 1 seeded Detroit Lions in the postseason. Daniels proved he can succeed in the NFL, but also set a high bar for himself going forward. Daniels isn't just expected to replicate what he accomplished his rookie season, but to build off that near unprecedented success for a rookie. That can be challenging, especially when a number of great rookies deal with a sophomore slump after their first NFL season.

The positive for Daniels is he doesn't appear to get affected by outside pressure easily. On top of this, Daniels is working to combat facing a slump in his second year in the pros, including by eliminating some of his bad tendencies as a quarterback. “I’m sitting down and watching film and trying to eliminate some tendencies, as much as possible,” Daniels told Yahoo Sports's Jori Epstein. “Talking to the coaching staff on areas that they feel like I need to improve on and having conversations so we can all hit at full speed.” Fortunately for Daniels, he seems to be surrounded by a strong coaching staff on the Commanders that were key to helping him thrive as a rookie. Ahead of his rookie season, the Commanders helped him become elite at reading and processing defenses by using virtual reality technology.

Now, Washington can turn the focus to getting rid of his tendencies and addressing any other key areas he can improve, which should only make him harder to defend. Jayden Daniels has been one of the few quarterbacks to get selected and showcase his talents right away, as he dominated from the jump and led the Washington Commanders to an NFC Championship Game. That was a huge leap for a team that hadn’t posted a winning record in eight years. Daniels stepped up in a big way, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year after completing 331 of 480 passes (69.0%) for 3,568 yards with 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also ran 148 times for 891 yards (6.0 yards per carry) and six rushing touchdowns. Now, the challenge is meeting those lofty expectations, as many rookies hit a sophomore slump in Year 2.

We saw that with Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud last season, who had a bit of a down year. But Daniels is determined to go above and beyond this offseason to avoid that in 2025. Daniels has shown that he can keep rising to the moment—he never slowed down during the season or in the playoffs. The game never looked too fast, and the spotlight never seemed too bright. In an interview with Yahoo Sports senior reporter Jori Epstein, Daniels said he’s focused on avoiding the dreaded slump.

“I’m sitting down and watching film and trying to eliminate some tendencies, as much as possible. Talking to the coaching staff on areas that they feel like I need to improve on and having conversations so we can all hit at full speed.” I was listening to a QB ranking episode this week and towards the top of the list, Jayden Daniels was brought up. One of the hosts had him a bit lower than consensus, and part of that was due to the fear of him regressing much like CJ Stroud did in his second year. Defenses have a year of film on him, can he truly replicate the magic of his rookie year, all that good stuff. That got me thinking, a LOT of people, myself included, got burned by CJ Stroud.

🐮 Can we learn from that experience? What factors led to his downfall? Is what happened to Stroud something we see as the “per usual” for second-year QBs and he simply made it more apparent? To find out, I went to Stathead and used their tool to find Quarterbacks in their first two seasons who started at least 8 games each year from 2014 to 2024. This does not include the 2024 rookies, just players who had their second season in 2024 (think Stroud, Bryce Young, etc).

I wanted to compare touchdown rate, interception rate, rushing yards, points per game, and the like. I ended up with a sample of 25 QBs. For starters, quarterbacks improved their average year-over-year touchdown rate by over 25%. Interestingly, their interception rate also goes up 5%, rather than going down. Also, eight saw their points per game increase by 4 or more points in their second season. Only four saw a decrease of two or more points.

The other 13 quarterbacks stayed within about a point and a half of their rookie season PPG (Davis Mills was within 0.02 points!). But that only tells us so much. Ok cool, we see improvements and they seem to be good bets to increase or at least stay put in their points per game, so what? What about Stroud? by Marissa Myers | Jun 20, 2025 | Football, Headlines, NFL <img data-recalc-dims="1" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-987536802 lazyload" src="https://i0.wp.com/twsn.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/IMG_0708.jpeg?resize=1043%2C697&#038;quality=89&#038;ssl=1" alt="Jayden Daniels " width="1043" height="697" srcset="https://twsn.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/IMG_0708.jpeg 1043w, https://twsn.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/IMG_0708-980x655.jpeg 980w, https://twsn.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/IMG_0708-480x321.jpeg 480w" sizes="(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1043px,...

Jayden Daniels is coming off having a remarkable rookie season in which he won the Offensive Rookie of the Year and helped lead the Washington Commanders to the NFL Playoffs, and even as far... While Jayden Daniels had a rookie season that put the NFL on notice, he is bound to end up facing a sophomore slump during the 2025 season. Detroit Lions to Replace Dan Campbell as Head Coach After last season’s impressive record, Jayden Daniel has become a staple name in the NFL world. His most talked-about dual-threat ability mixed with accuracy has made the Commanders’ offense the talk of the town last season. But situations seem different this season.

Many quarterbacks call into a sophomore slump before him. The question is whether Daniel is breaking the pattern or slowly slipping into it. Let’s take a look. A sophomore slump is the situation when a player’s second season doesn’t seem brighter than their rookie season. For Jayden, the bar couldn’t be higher; in the past season, the champion had a stunning performance, accumulating 3568 passing yards and an incredible 25 touchdowns. Plus, he has 900 rushing yards with 100.1 passing yards.

Due to his stellar performance, the champion became the Offensive Rookie of the Year last season, sparking high hopes for the Commanders down the line. However, this season isn’t going in his favor. His record includes 1,031 passing yards with eight touchdowns. Followed by one interception with a 61% completion rate. The numbers are still good, but on a slight downside compared to his rookie season. This might result from his hamstring injury; his offensive coordination seemed dull then.

People Also Search

This Week, There Was More Talk About Commanders Quarterback Jayden

This week, there was more talk about Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels potentially experiencing an NFL sophomore slump. But in this case, the two hosts weren't buying the talk of Daniels falling into the dreaded sophomore slump. Nope, Robert Mays and Derrick Klassen on their "The Athletic Football Show" podcast actually held firmly that they don't see Daniels falling off drastically. For examp...

That No Doubt Was Referring To The MNF Win, When

That no doubt was referring to the MNF win, when Daniels connected with Terry McLaurin down the right sideline, in the end zone, ensuring the Commanders' road win in Cincinnati over the Bengals. It was admitted that though Daniels might not maintain the rate to make a large gain against the blitz, the two ended up agreeing that they actually can easily see Daniels making enough of... Comical is no...

One Nearly Set The Record For Sacks Taken In A

One nearly set the record for sacks taken in a season. One never got a chance to play due to an injury. Where do these players stand going into year two? Is this group still set to change the league—or were NFL teams overzealous when they drafted these guys back in April of last year? Welcome to Sophomore QB Week at The Ringer. This week, we’re breaking down the play and futures of Caleb Williams,...

McCarthy, And Bo Nix. Today, We’re Looking At Daniels, Who

McCarthy, and Bo Nix. Today, we’re looking at Daniels, who won the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award after his standout season in Washington. Since 2001, 103 quarterbacks have attempted at least 100 passes as rookies. Of those rookie passers, just 10 have netted at least 50 expected points added for their teams. And of those 10, just two have improved on their EPA totals in their second sea...

The Final Quarterback In That Sample Is To Be Determined.

The final quarterback in that sample is to be determined. That’s Jayden Daniels, Washington’s superstar passer who is looking to avoid the dreaded “sophomore slump” in 2025. But here’s the good news for Daniels: Sophomore slumps aren’t real. Quarterbacks of all levels of experience tend to do worse following a great season, not just sophomores. That small sample above shows seven out of nine elite...