Why Yankees Aaron Judge Won T Win Al Mvp But Should

Bonisiwe Shabane

-Nov 18, 2025, 3:56 AM

why yankees aaron judge won t win al mvp but should

New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge is now officially a finalist for the 2025 AL MVP Award, and for good reason. He gave another incredible performance in the regular season, and is widely hailed as the best slugger in the MLB. But it won't be enough to win him the AL award. Your 2025 @officialBBWAA AL Most Valuable Player Award finalists:Aaron JudgeCal RaleighJosé Ramírez pic.twitter.com/UyWkwFktH5 Judge was named alongside Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, who is considered his closest competition for the award, and Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez. Raleigh has the more unique story, as he is a phenomenal catcher and led the Mariners to their first division win since 2001.

His nickname — Big Dumper, in reference to his large butt — created a cult fandom for Raleigh who led the league in home runs in 2025 (with 60). Judge's accomplishments this season were summarized by MLB in the announcement that he is a finalist, and they speak for themselves. "After winning AL MVP honors in 2022 and ’24, Judge delivered another outstanding season in ’25," MLB wrote. "The Yankees slugger topped the 50-homer mark (53) for the fourth time in his career, led the AL in runs (137) and walks (124) and was the Major League leader in all three slash... He also topped MLB in both the Baseball-Reference (9.7) and FanGraphs (10.1) versions of WAR, helping the Yankees earn a Wild Card berth." For the third time in the last four years, New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge is the American League MVP winner, with the BBWAA wrapping up award week by announcing the MVPs on Thursday...

It was another brilliant season for the hulking slugger, but unlike last year when he won the award unanimously, there was a legitimate challenger this time around in Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh. Both players had a compelling case, and while Judge ultimately finished on top, it was one of the closest votes in recent memory: Before we dive into why Big Dumper should have been the 2025 AL MVP, let's first lay out the case for Judge to provide some context. .css-1582m2i{margin:0;font:inherit;font-weight:700;}The Case for Aaron Judge The New York Yankees have had some incredibly legendary players come through their organization, and in the modern era, Aaron Judge is carving out not just a Hall of Fame career but an inner-circle... He has a case to be the best right-handed hitter in baseball history.

This season, while he isn't the leader in home runs, he's still the most dangerous hitter in the game. Judge and Cal Raleigh are the two favorites for the AL MVP in 2025, with both having strong cases for the award. But, in the opinion of MLB insider for USA Today Bob Nightengale, there is a clear favorite for the award. He has such a strong opinion that he says that Judge, despite his incredible league-leading numbers, shouldn't be the AL MVP this season. "It is called the Most Valuable Player Award. It is not the Best Player award." Nightengale writes.

"He (Judge) shouldn't be the 2025 MVP. This award belongs to Raleigh, who has defied the imagination with his historical season, going where no catcher has ever gone before." While there's no denying that Raleigh has had one of the best seasons in MLB history, and arguably the best season by a catcher in MLB history, it's still a very bold stance to... We’re now fairly deep into the postseason, so it’s time to take a final look at the Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues. The AL and NL Cy Young races were examined a couple weeks back - today it’s the AL MVP race. If you’re new to my work, I take a slightly different approach to evaluation of current season performance.

It’s a purely analytical approach, and relies on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball hit by every qualifying MLB hitter, and calculate the damage they “should have” produced based on their exit speed/launch angle mix. That’s expressed by their Adjusted Contact Score - 100 equals league average, the higher the number the better. I then add back the Ks and BBs to determine each hitter’s “Tru” Production+, and then spread it across their plate appearance bulk to determine their “Tru” Batting Runs Above Average. I then add Fangraphs baserunning and defensive runs into the mix, resulting in “Tru” Player Runs Above Average (TPRAA). While using replacement level as a baseline typically makes sense when doing most kinds of player evaluation, I find league average to be quite useful in evaluating elite performance, i.e., for award voting, Hall...

This analysis covers the complete season, and all hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title were considered. That weeded out Rangers’ SS Corey Seager, who ranked #3 in last month’s update. Let’s get to it. Blue Jays’ DH George Springer (19.9 “Tru” Player Runs Above Average) charges onto the final Top Ten list. Only two players (#1 and #5 below) contributed more offensive value among AL players this season. He was a bit fortunate on balls in play across all batted ball types, but still “should have” batted a strong .282-.368-.542 this season.

Yankees’ 1B Ben Rice (21.6 TPRAA) also finished strong and entered the Top Ten for the first time at season’s end. His bat is legit - only #1 and #2 below had higher overall average exit speeds than Rice’s 93.2 mph. He was quite unlucky on balls in play - he “should have” hit .291-.359-.549 this season. Guardians’ 3B Jose Ramirez (22.0 TPRAA) moves up a notch from #9 a month ago. Ramirez doesn’t hit the ball nearly as hard as the others on this list (88.9 mph overall average exit speed), but compensates with massive fly ball volume and ample baserunning and defense value. Some critics believed Cal Raleigh should have won the award

Aaron Judge narrowly defeated Cal Raleigh to win the 2025 American League MVP, in a vote that left some critics questioning the decision. On Thursday, the Baseball Writers' Association of America awarded the New York Yankees slugger his third MVP, a milestone achieved by only a handful of Yankees, including Yogi Berra, Joe DiMaggio, and Mickey Mantle. Judge secured 17 first-place votes and 13 second-place votes, just edging out Seattle Mariners' catcher Raleigh, who earned 13 first-place votes and 17 second-place votes. The close tally highlighted one of the tightest MVP races in recent memory. Judge's offensive season was historic. He claimed his first batting title with a .331 average, led the league with 53 home runs, and maintained a high OPS that set him apart from his peers.

Yet, despite these impressive statistics, sports media personality Dan Patrick argued that Raleigh had a stronger case. Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge won the 2025 American League MVP, cementing this as one of the greatest stretches in MLB history. And yet, there's something missing. This would go for any player having such a stretch, but it's especially magnified when we look through the lens of Yankees history. The Yankees haven't won the World Series since 2009. That's 16 empty seasons in the Bronx.

They went 17 years between the 1978 and 1996 titles, but there wasn't a World Series in one of those seasons (the 1994 strike caused a World Series cancellation and the Yankees had the... Keeping this in mind, the Yankees have tied their longest stretch of World Series without winning one since their first in 1923. And, again, they're doing it with Judge on a historic individual run. This isn't recency bias or hyperbole. I'm not being a prisoner of the moment. Judge has now won three MVPs in the last four seasons.

The one time he didn't win it, he missed 56 games due to injury and lost out to a historic Shohei Ohtani season. Still, we're talking about a four-year stretch in which Judge has hit .311/.439/.677 (209 OPS+) with 210 home runs, 464 RBI, 471 runs and 35.9 WAR. The general guideline for WAR is that 8.0 is an MVP-caliber season. Judge is averaging just about 9.0 per season in the last four, even accounting for the extended absence for injury in 2023. He's also averaging 53 home runs, 116 RBI and 118 runs. Aaron Judge won this third AL MVP and now has taken home the award in three of the past four seasons, a dominant stretch that has bolstered his Hall of Fame resume.

Al Bello / Getty Images LAS VEGAS — New York Yankees star Aaron Judge, who led MLB in batting average while hitting 53 home runs, beat the Seattle Mariners’ Cal Raleigh in a close vote to win his third... Judge netted 17 first-place votes and 355 points to edge Raleigh, who garnered 13 first-place votes and 335 points, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America announced Thursday night. The Cleveland Guardians’ José Ramírez (224 points) finished third. Judge’s across-the-board offensive dominance in leading the Yankees to a tie for the AL’s best record won out over whispers of voter fatigue amid a historic season from Raleigh, whose 60 home runs were... In the National League, Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter and starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani unanimously won his fourth MVP award.

Why Yankees Aaron Judge Won T Win Al Mvp But Should

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