University of Kwazulu-Natal

Weekly Markets Monitor The 2026 Gold Outlook

Bonisiwe Shabane
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weekly markets monitor the 2026 gold outlook

Note: Historical data based on the LBMA Gold Price PM in USD as of 28 November 2025. Ranges are not price forecasts, but hypothetical illustrations of potential scenario outcomes based on our Gold Valuation Framework. ‘Macro consensus’ implies a range between -5% and 5%; ‘Shallow slip’ implies 5% to 15% upside; ‘Doom loop’ implies 15% to 30% upside; and the ‘Reflation return’ implies a 5% to 20% drop. The reference point is the average LBMA Gold Price for November 2025. For more details, see: Gold Outlook 2026. Source: Bloomberg, ICE Benchmark Administration, Oxford Economics, World Gold Council

© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates. All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.

Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved. The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only... World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this...

This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments... This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results.

The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments. This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.

Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results... Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations. Last week highlighted sectoral divergence: services remained resilient while manufacturing struggled in major economies. The US labour market sent mixed signals, Eurozone inflation rose, Japan’s consumer spending weakened, China’s exports increased, and India cut rates. And geopolitical tensions, including those in Russia and Venezuela, showed no signs of easing.

Global equity markets delivered a mixed finish; US bond yields climbed; the dollar was steady; and oil prices increased. We published our Gold Outlook 2026 last week, laying out potential macro scenarios and hypothetical implications for gold based on ... (full story) There is a rising global interest in extracting much-needed critical minerals from the Arctic to meet the growing needs for various metals and minerals. However, environmentalists ... Australia's Mount Isa rail line remains shut after three locomotives and a wagon carrying zinc and copper derailed on 5 December.

Repairs are underway and all freight is being ... ECB's Kazimir: FX pass-through to prices may not be as strong as expected ECB's Kazimir: I see no reason to change rates in the coming months, definitely not in December ECB's Kazimir: Remaining vigilant... ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel suggests interest rates have reached the bottom, saying she's comfortable with bets that the next rate move will be a hike. Schnabel is ... Gold entered 2026 at levels few institutions believed possible just two years earlier. An extraordinary 2025 rally driven by aggressive central-bank buying, persistent geopolitical tension, and expectations of monetary easing pushed prices to all-time highs above $4,300 per ounce and forced banks to rewrite their outlooks.

This article consolidates the most authoritative projections from major banks and respected analysts, along with the relevant forward-looking forecasts from earlier institutional research, so you can track how projections have changed over time. The chart below shows real-time gold spot prices tracked by Lear Capital and updated throughout the trading day. Before gold accelerated far beyond expectations, several institutions issued more conservative targets. Some of these remain useful as reference points that illustrate how sharply sentiment has changed. These earlier forecasts now read like the first chapter in a much larger price repricing. By the end of 2025, gold had sailed past $4,000, prompting an industry-wide reset of forward expectations.

The price of gold is forecast by Goldman Sachs Research to rise 6% through the middle of 2026 (as of September 24), underpinned by fresh demand from key groups of buyers who have contributed... The precious metal has risen more than 40% in 2025 and is on pace for its third-straight year of double-digits gains. The gold price is predicted to rise to $4,000 per troy ounce by the middle of next year (up from $3,772 on September 24), Goldman Sachs Research analyst Lina Thomas writes in the team’s... Their gold price forecast is driven by strong structural demand from central banks and easing from the US Federal Reserve (which supports ETF demand for gold). Buyers of gold fall into two broad groups, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Conviction buyers tend to purchase the yellow metal consistently, regardless of the price, and based on their view on the economy or to hedge risk.

These include central banks, exchange-traded funds, and speculators. Their thesis-driven flows set the price direction. As a rule of thumb, every 100 tonnes of net purchases by these conviction holders corresponds to a 1.7% rise in the gold price. By contrast, opportunistic buyers such as households in emerging markets step in when they believe the price is right. They may provide a floor under prices on the way down and resistance on the way up. Risk Warning: this article represents only the author’s views and is for reference only.

It does not constitute investment advice or financial guidance, nor does it represent the stance of the Markets.com platform.When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that... This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice. Trading cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets is restricted for all UK retail clients. Proposed expansion of ESMA's powers raises concerns about the potential impact on the EU's crypto and fintech sectors. Centralized licensing and slower regulatory processes are key worries. Bitcoin's 'Santa' rally may be ignited by the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision.

This article analyzes the macroeconomic factors potentially influencing Bitcoin's performance into 2026. Western Union expands into digital assets with a new stable card and plans to issue its own stablecoin, focusing on emerging markets. For privacy and data protection related complaints please contact us at privacy@markets.com. Please read our PRIVACY POLICY STATEMENT for more information on handling of personal data. We may receive commissions from some links to products on this page. Promotions are subject to availability and retailer terms.

November 25, 2025 / 10:05 AM EST / CBS News Gold prices spiked in October, reaching a new record high of over $4,300 per ounce. And while they've declined slightly since that point, the yellow metal is still selling at significantly higher prices than just a few years ago. In fact, as of late November, the gold price per ounce was over $4,100. In November 2023, it was barely above $2,000. "Gold prices have been experiencing one of the steadiest two-year uptrends ever," says Jim Wiederhold, commodity indices product manager at Bloomberg Indices/Bloomberg Index Services Limited.

Gold is on track to finish its best year in over four decades, leaving the S&P 500 and global bonds in the dust. But after a stunning 60% rally in 2025, the biggest question on Wall Street is simple: Is the gold trade too crowded, or is the party just getting started? The latest World Gold Council outlook suggests the answer depends less on what gold has just done and more on how the macroeconomic regime shifts over the next twelve months. The precious metal – as tracked by the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) – delivered a 60.6% gain through early December, setting more than 50 all-time highs. But what made 2025 so remarkable was not simply the magnitude of the rally but its composition. Throughout 2025, gold maintained a robust upward trajectory, repeatedly setting new record highs.

Strong demand for safe-haven investments and increased gold holdings by global central banks provided significant support. This performance reinforced gold’s status as a premier global safe-haven asset and a key portfolio hedging instrument, establishing a solid foundation for the 2026 market outlook. Moreover, expectations of mid-term volatility in the US Dollar Index and persistent global economic uncertainty have driven capital flows from risk assets toward defensive assets like gold. Fundamentally, several factors will play a pivotal role in shaping gold prices in 2026: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Outlook: Anticipated interest rate cuts are likely to reduce real yields and spur demand for gold. This expectation is already largely priced into the market.

Global Political and Economic Uncertainty: Heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing trade disputes continue to enhance gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. CFDs are complex instruments. 71% of retail client accounts lose money when trading CFDs, with this investment provider. You can lose your money rapidly due to leverage. Please ensure you understand how this product works and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing money. CFDs are complex instruments.

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Note: Historical Data Based On The LBMA Gold Price PM

Note: Historical data based on the LBMA Gold Price PM in USD as of 28 November 2025. Ranges are not price forecasts, but hypothetical illustrations of potential scenario outcomes based on our Gold Valuation Framework. ‘Macro consensus’ implies a range between -5% and 5%; ‘Shallow slip’ implies 5% to 15% upside; ‘Doom loop’ implies 15% to 30% upside; and the ‘Reflation return’ implies a 5% to 20% d...

© 2025 World Gold Council. All Rights Reserved. World Gold

© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates. All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy o...

Reproduction Or Redistribution Of Any Of This Information Is Expressly

Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respec...

This Information Is For Educational Purposes Only And By Receiving

This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments... This information does not take into acc...

The World Gold Council And Its Affiliates Do Not Guarantee

The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments. This information may contain forward-looking stateme...