Trends In China S Us Election Interference Illustrate Its Longer Game

Chinese malign information operations focusing on down-ballot Senate and House races rather than favoring a particular presidential candidate Banner: Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, October 24, 2024. (Source: Maksim Bogodvid/BRICS-RUSSIA2024.RU via Reuters Connect) In the weeks and months leading up to the November 2024 US general election, government agencies and social media platforms have maintained a steady drumbeat of disclosures describing efforts by foreign threat actors to... Not least among these actors is the People’s Republic of China (PRC). In contrast to Russian and Iranian state-linked assets, US intelligence assessments find that PRC state-linked actors do not seem to favor one candidate over another; rather, their main goal is to sow distrust in...

Below are five trends in PRC online influence operations in recent years and in the lead up to the 2024 US presidential election. While the intensity of online debate during elections makes them powerful vectors for digital forms of foreign malign influence, because Beijing is not tied to a specific electoral outcome, these trends are not necessarily... This is because Beijing’s objectives for its online influence operations are part of a longer game: the gradual erosion of trust in democracy, and the destabilization of the United States. The PRC’s online influence activities are best understood with this longer-term goal in mind. This election cycle, China does not seem to have a preferred candidate for president. This is likely because both are seen as anti-China; one commentator described the choice as picking between two bowls of poison.

Instead, the PRC has focused much of its covert influence efforts on denigrating specific down-ballot politicians it sees as particularly critical of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This includes Reps. Barry Moore (R-AL) and Michael McCaul (R-TX), in addition to Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and Marco Rubio (R-FL). For example, PRC state-linked accounts on X accused McCaul of insider trading and abusing power for personal gain. McCaul chairs both the House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman and the China Task Force, which in 2020 released a report describing China as a “generational threat” and recommended over four hundred policy actions to...

He has also been a major supporter of continuing arms sales to Taiwan, and the Chinese government views visits by McCaul and other US officials to Taiwan as provocations. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and government of China interfered in the 2024 United States elections through propaganda and disinformation campaigns, primarily linked to its Spamouflage influence operation.[1] Cyberespionage and wire-tapping operations were launched... politicians by Salt Typhoon, an advanced persistent threat group linked to the Ministry of State Security. The efforts came amidst other foreign interference in the 2024 United States elections. In March 2021, the National Intelligence Council released a report that said the Chinese government "considered but did not deploy" influence efforts in 2020.[2] A declassified U.S. intelligence assessment in 2023 said with "high confidence" that China, Russia, Iran and Cuba attempted to influence the 2022 midterms.

It said that China had tacitly approved "efforts to try to influence a handful of midterm races involving members of both US political parties" and "portray the US democratic model as chaotic, ineffective, and... The assessment said that China had used images generated by artificial intelligence to mimic Americans online and provoke discussion on divisive social issues, and that they believed they would face less scrutiny during the... retaliation would be lower.[3] It also said that since 2020, senior Chinese intelligence officials had issued directives to "intensify efforts to influence US policy and public opinion in China's favor" and "magnify US societal... infrastructure in the transportation and maritime sectors.[5] During APEC United States 2023, Joe Biden and General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party Xi Jinping met in a separate summit on November 15 where Xi told Biden that China would not interfere... This assurance was given again by director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission Wang Yi to Biden's national security advisor Jake Sullivan on the weekend of January 26-27 during a meeting...

CNN reported in January 2024 that the topic had repeatedly come up during senior-level meetings between the two nations which were held following a shootdown of a Chinese spy balloon by the U.S. military after it traversed the continental United States in February 2023.[4] U.S. intelligence agencies have described Chinese government interference in the elections as aggressive but overall cautious and nuanced, not targeting any particular candidate, but instead focusing on issues important to Beijing such as Taiwan, and... in general."[1][6] However, China has specifically denigrated President Biden using fake accounts.[7] According to The Washington Post, a senior official with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said China is "not attempting... As early as April 1, 2024, The New York Times reported that the Chinese government had created fake pro-Trump accounts on social media "promoting conspiracy theories, stoking domestic divisions and attacking President Biden ahead...

China is increasingly its espionage and infiltration techniques against the US in the lead up to the November 2024 election. 2430 Group summarizes some of the CCP’s most prominent techniques. The US has accused China of attempting to interfere in US elections since 2016. Over the past decade, China has enhanced its capacity to influence foreign elections through a combination of targeted disinformation campaigns, cyber attacks, economic coercion, and the use of proxies to spread pro-China messages through... While the degree to which these efforts affect votes is unclear, collectively they point to a broad effort to disrupt the election process, sow distrust among voters about outcomes, and promote extreme candidates over... As the Director of National Intelligence notes, “China is using AI in broader influence operations seeking to shape global views of China and amplify divisive U.S.

political issues, but not for any specific operations targeting U.S. election outcomes.” Ultimately, China’s ambition is to use the US’s open society to undermine the political process, create and exacerbate internal divisions, and thereby hinder the US’s capacity to compete with China on the... Chinese disinformation is extensive and has expanded rapidly into new markets in the past decade. While the CCP denies disinformation and hacking interference in other countries, evidence clearly shows that this is a favored technique by the CCP to disrupt its adversaries. Moreover, hacking and disinformation are both central to how China’s People’s Liberation Army conducts information warfare. Disinformation is often targeted at socially disruptive stories that portray the US as failing and that trigger intense emotional reactions among viewers, particularly those on the political far right.

Chinese disinformation, for example, is overwhelmingly pro-Trump not because of a preference for Donald Trump per se, but because CCP officials see support for Trump as more likely to stoke social unrest in the... Attempts to combat these mis/disinformation campaigns are currently sparsely resourced, and targeted individuals are often unaware that the content they consume is foreign government propaganda. Recently, China has embraced AI-generated content to both produce disinformation abroad and to defend against disinformation at home. Chinese propagandists have honed the techniques and technologies involved in this content production through experimentation, particularly when targeting Taiwan. Taiwan’s recent presidential election, for example, was “the first time that Microsoft Threat Intelligence witnessed a nation-state actor using AI content in attempts to influence a foreign election.” State-backed hacking groups active in targeting... While Taiwan receives much of China’s overseas disinformation efforts, Beijing is applying lessons from Taiwan around the world.

Companies like Microsoft have documented attempts by Chinese actors to exploit AI or AI-enhanced content to sow distrust abroad, including in the US. In particular, reports by Microsoft detail how Chinese agents target foreign democracies using fake social media accounts to poll voters about what divides them most, and then exploiting that information using generative AI content. Through “Spamoflague” campaigns, which aim to mimic US voters in an attempt to persuade others into adopting similar policy positions–most of which are pro-Trump–Chinese government and security agents are widespread on most social media... This is an enlightening report from Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab). China’s election influence strategy is subtle but strategic. Rather than backing a candidate, it targets down-ballot critics and exploits social divides to erode faith in U.S.

democracy. Using AI-driven content across various platforms—not just TikTok—China is playing the long game, focusing on weakening trust rather than swaying votes. Staying aware of this strategy is key to building resilience. #election2024 #digitalinfluence #china #CCP #misinformation #geopoliticalrisk #greatpowercompetition #strategiccompetition #cognitivesecurity #informationintegrity As eyes turn to elections in #Moldova, sharing Ksenia Iliuk and LetsData's insightful analysis of an increasingly difficult space to understand -- she reminds us that much of the discussion tends to focus on... 👉 But information operations are not a goal.

They are a tool to reach other goals of adversaries -- delegitimizing, undermining, pressuring. Tracking them to understand the next moves is, as she says, "the true value." AI vs Information Operations | Co-Founder @LetsData | 30U30 I promised a longer conceptual piece on what to expect in Moldova’s parliamentary elections 🇲🇩 We at LetsData do not attempt to predict who will win. That is not our job. Instead, we outlined how Russian and Russia-aligned information operations fit into a broader strategy aimed at shaping Moldova’s security environment and political trajectory.

For nearly three years, we tracked information operations in Moldova. In the past year alone, we caught over 700 distinct incidents. Based on these observations, a clear pattern emerges: Russian and Russia-aligned threat actors are preparing Moldova’s information space for two possible post-election outcomes. Their main objective remains the victory of political parties openly sympathetic to Moscow, a goal they have repeatedly signaled support for, going as far as hosting in Moscow the launch of an opposition alliance... But with elections expected to be close and polling suggesting a near tie, alternatives are already in play. This means that the wave of InfoOps is likely to intensify immediately after election day, when results become clear and vulnerabilities in the political process are most exposed.

Scenario 1: The Delegitimization Play If pro-European or neutral forces secure enough seats to block a Russia-aligned majority, pre-positioned narratives of fraud, repression, and state capture will be activated. The aim is to discredit the results, contest the legitimacy of the process, and weaken trust in Moldova’s electoral institutions. Scenario 2: The Coalition Pressure Play If no side wins outright, a highly likely outcome in such a close contest, information operations will pivot toward fragmenting blocs and shaping coalition talks. Threat actors will amplify intimidation campaigns against “swing” parties and their leaders, frame potential alliances as betrayals, and seed narratives that deter cross-bloc cooperation. The aim is to tilt negotiations toward Russia-aligned actors, or at a minimum, to produce a deadlock that keeps Moldova politically weak and vulnerable to external leverage. Read the full piece prepared by Andrei Tiut https://lnkd.in/e_wv_GjT

🇬🇪 I am sharing this for transparency. Yesterday, Georgia’s CEC released a statement rejecting the European Platform for Democratic Elections (EPDE)’s findings on politically biased ('fake') observers at the 4 October local elections. We have responded because this debate should focus on standards, not labels. In short, here’s where we stand: • Our assessments follow the United Nations/OSCE-endorsed Declaration of Principles for International Election Observation: independence, transparent method, and proportionate claims are non-negotiable. • Georgia had no credible long-term international mission (OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) was invited too late), and leading domestic groups (The International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED),... • We did not label “all observers” as fake; we flagged specific individuals based on our publicly available methodology.

We suggest some constructive next steps: publish the criteria for accreditation and hosting, apply a clear code of conduct to ad-hoc invitees, and make sure ODIHR is invited in time for full observation, along... We welcome further discussion and stand by our evidence. The target is you, voter. Russia, China, Iran, and other bad actors sought to interfere in the run-up to today’s US elections, according to research by the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab), which has been monitoring online... As DFRLab experts detail below, this year’s malign efforts in many ways surpass previous influence campaigns in sophistication and scope, if not in impact—and they are expected to continue well after the polls close. The Atlantic Council’s guide to the most consequential US political contest in generations.

New Atlanticist By Atlantic Council experts Atlantic Council experts share their insights on the Biden administration’s newly announced response to what it alleges is an expansive malign influence operation by the Kremlin. A new essay by former National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley provides an important contribution at the early stages of a new geopolitical era.

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