University of Kwazulu-Natal

The One Shot Anomaly In The Assassination Of Charlie Kirk Rogue

Bonisiwe Shabane
-
the one shot anomaly in the assassination of charlie kirk rogue

High-profile assassinations and attempts have rarely been one-shot affairs. Most attackers unleash multiple rounds in quick succession – whether out of panic, determination to ensure the kill, or lack of confidence in a single bullet. For example, Lee Harvey Oswald (maybe) fired three shots from the Texas School Book Depository at President John F. Kennedy in 1963. Sirhan Sirhan, who assassinated Robert F. Kennedy in 1968, emptied an eight-shot revolver at point-blank range, hitting RFK three times and wounding five bystanders.

John Hinckley Jr. likewise rapid-fired six shots in 1.7 seconds during his 1981 attempt on President Reagan. Even the recent Shinzo Abe assassination in 2022 involved two shotgun blasts – the homemade weapon’s first shot missed and the second proved fatal. By contrast, a one-shot, one-kill scenario like the Charlie Kirk shooting is highly atypical, with few modern precedents outside of military-style sniper attacks. A handful of historical assassinations do fit the “one shot, one kill” mold, but they are exceptions that prove the rule. Abraham Lincoln’s murder in 1865 was accomplished with a single pistol shot to the head at point-blank range (a very different tactical scenario).

Martin Luther King Jr.’s assassination in 1968 is a closer analogy: James Earl Ray fired one rifle round from a boarding house window, striking King’s neck/jaw from roughly 200 feet away. That single .30-06 bullet was instantly mortal. Another example is the 2003 killing of Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjić, who was fatally shot by a sniper from a distant building – a professionally executed hit. These cases show that one-shot kills do occur, but they are statistically rare in the realm of political violence. Far more often, assassins fire multiple rounds or use multiple means (guns, bombs, etc.) to ensure their target is incapacitated. Historical Analysis of Shots Fired in Political Assassinations

Indeed, the norm in both historical and contemporary attacks is for attackers – especially lone-wolf extremists – to fire repeatedly until they can no longer do so (either jammed, tackled, or out of ammo). In the chaotic 1968 RFK shooting, Sirhan kept “firing his gun in random directions” until subdued. In 1981, Hinckley’s six-shot barrage wounded not just Reagan but several others. More recently, mass-shooter style assassination attempts (e.g. the 2011 shooting of Rep. Gabby Giffords or the 2023 attempted attack on Argentina’s Vice President) have involved unloading entire magazines.

Even the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at a Pennsylvania rally in July 2024 was a “deadly shooting” with multiple shots fired, not a single round. In that case, the sniper-positioned gunman struck a bystander fatally and grazed Mr. Trump amid several shots before fleeing. The Charlie Kirk case – a single rifle round from ~200 yards that struck the target’s neck and nothing else – is virtually unheard of in modern U.S. political violence. Such precision and restraint (one shot, then immediate exfiltration) starkly deviate from the historical pattern of high-volume gunfire in assassination scenarios.

Crucially, the one-shot kill profile is more commonly associated with trained professionals (military or paramilitary snipers, clandestine operatives, etc.) than with the typical lone extremist. Professional assassins or snipers are taught to make the first shot count – epitomized by the marksman’s adage “one shot, one kill.” By contrast, untrained attackers or emotionally charged ideologues often lack the cool... They tend to either fire multiple shots in rapid succession or continue shooting until stopped, as seen in almost all the historical examples above. Thus, Kirk’s assassination being carried out with a single, lethal round immediately invites comparisons to sniper-style tactics and raises questions about the Kirk shooter’s background and skill. Charlie Kirk is no longer here to defend himself, but physics speaks where words cannot. Geometry leaves no doubt where narratives blur.

Biology, chemistry, and neurophysiology reveal the sequence that unfolded in less than half a second. This article is not written for politics or spectacle. It is written in respect to Charlie Kirk – to preserve the truth of what the cameras captured, the math measured, and the body obeyed. Where politics blur, equations sharpen. Where words are vague, mathematics remains eternal. Figure 0.

Why the FBI’s intake doesn’t add up. The FBI pin (orange X, far-right corner) fails the math: at θ ≥ 35 – 40°, the path is too lateral, crosses the canopy edge (LOS blocked), and exposes the shooter to the audience. Wound constraints require a right→left, slight front→back track, not a posterior-left exit. The only consistent solution (green corridor: θ = 20 – 28°, φ = 5 – 7°, d = 128 – 183 m, L = 50 – 95 m, Δz = 12 – 18 m)... Any pin outside this corridor is inconsistent with physics. • Blood vents from the left side of Charlie Kirk’s neck.

By Chukwudi Onyewuchi on September 11, 2025 at 9:45 AM EDT After the shocking assassination of Charlie Kirk, one of America’s top snipers has broken down how the attack happened and revealed the mistake that gave away the shooter’s lack of real training. Sergeant Nicholas Ranstad, known for holding a record-breaking kill in Afghanistan, studied footage of the shooting and explained the weapon, setup, and key details that showed careful planning. However, he also pointed out a critical error that could help police track down who carried out the deadly attack. Sergeant Nicholas Ranstad, who once set a U.S. record with a 6,778-foot kill in Afghanistan, told the Daily Mail that Kirk’s shooting was carefully planned but not perfect.

On September 10, 2025, Charlie Kirk, an American right-wing political activist, was assassinated while addressing an audience on the campus of Utah Valley University (UVU) in Orem, Utah, United States. The outdoor event was the first stop of the Fall 2025 season for the American Comeback Tour, a speaking and debate series planned by Turning Point USA, a conservative youth organization that he co-founded. Kirk was fatally shot in the neck while engaging with an audience member about mass shootings in the United States by a sniper on the roof of a building approximately 142 yards (130 m)... The next day, 22-year-old Tyler James Robinson surrendered himself to the local sheriff. Prosecutors charged Robinson with murder on September 16 and announced they would seek the death penalty, alleging the attack was politically motivated.[2][3][4] The assassination was highlighted as an instance of increasing political violence within the United States and was condemned by national and foreign leaders.

Video footage of the shooting spread rapidly on social media, and reactions ranged from heartfelt messages expressing anguish about the political climate to sharply partisan comments and celebrations of his death.[5][6][7] President Donald Trump,... The Trump administration called for a crackdown against what it called "political extremism" on the left,[10][11][12][13] which was widely criticized by free speech advocates and legal experts as using the assassination as a pretext... Charlie Kirk was an American right-wing political activist, author, and media personality, known for co-founding and serving as CEO of Turning Point USA.[17][18] A close ally of US president Donald Trump, Kirk utilized his... The unidentified gunman was ‘either skillful or lucky,’ retired FBI SWAT member Dennis Franks told The Independent From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important...

At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story. The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it. Amid a massive search for the gunman who on Wednesday fatally shot 31-year-old MAGA activist Charlie Kirk, speculation continues to swirl about the person of interest now in the FBI’s sights.

People gather at a makeshift memorial for political activist and Turning Point USA Founder Charlie Kirk outside of the Turning Point USA headquarters in Phoenix, Ariz., on Sept. 14. Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images hide caption Prosecutors in Utah appear to be preparing to argue that 22-year-old Tyler Robinson killed conservative activist Charlie Kirk in Utah last week because he disagreed with Kirk's anti-trans rhetoric. In their charging document, authorities cite text messages that Robinson allegedly exchanged with "his lover/roommate," a person they describe as "a biological male who was transitioning genders." The document also includes another text in... The presumed motive has added fire to a rash of speculation by high-reach conservatives, who have suggested that this motive equated to a political ideology.

The same day Kirk was killed, President Trump claimed the shooter was a "radical leftist." Others have suggested that the suspect may have been "groomed" by a "trans terror cell" and that he was... In fact, little is still known about Robinson's politics. According to the charging document, his mother told investigators that he had become more "pro-gay and trans-rights oriented" within the last year. It also includes a text message, allegedly written by Robinson, that said "since trump got into office [my dad] has been pretty diehard maga." But Robinson is not registered with a political party in... There is no evidence of his positions on other issues of importance to the left, such as immigration or labor. The shooting of the conservative activist is the latest act of political violence in the United States.

The assassination of Charlie Kirk, the high-profile conservative activist, is apparently the latest in a string of terrifying acts of political violence in the United States. Real America’s Voice, which aired Kirk’s show, announced his death. He was 31. Kirk was shot during an appearance at Utah Valley University, just north of Provo, Utah. After initially saying that the police had arrested a suspect, the school now says that there is no suspect in custody, and the shooter’s motive is not known. Videos of the shooting posted to social media by onlookers are nauseating.

President Donald Trump has ordered flags to be flown at half-staff until Sunday. The two attempts on Trump’s life last year, one of which left him bleeding from the ear, are only the most prominent recent instances of political violence. In June, a Minnesota state representative and her husband were killed, while another state legislator and his wife were wounded. As my colleague Adrienne LaFrance reported in a 2023 cover story, scholars have warned for years about the growing presence of violence in American politics. Extreme rhetoric has become common, and it too often leads to action—usually not by organized groups but by individuals responding to the broader culture, in which more Americans say they approve of political violence. “The form of extremism we face is a new phase of domestic terror, one characterized by radicalized individuals with shape-shifting ideologies willing to kill their political enemies,” LaFrance wrote.

All murders are horrifying, but political violence brings its own special challenges. A society that resorts to violence to solve its problems starts to surrender its claim on being a society. A grim irony of this case is that Kirk was appearing on a university campus, a place that is supposed to be set apart specifically for the testing and debate of ideas—a place for... Kirk was a frequent visitor to university campuses. He was shot while sitting under a tent, as he typically did, that said: PROVE ME WRONG. He has been willing to face off against overtly hostile opponents, such as students in the venerable debate clubs of Oxford and Cambridge.

People Also Search

High-profile Assassinations And Attempts Have Rarely Been One-shot Affairs. Most

High-profile assassinations and attempts have rarely been one-shot affairs. Most attackers unleash multiple rounds in quick succession – whether out of panic, determination to ensure the kill, or lack of confidence in a single bullet. For example, Lee Harvey Oswald (maybe) fired three shots from the Texas School Book Depository at President John F. Kennedy in 1963. Sirhan Sirhan, who assassinated ...

John Hinckley Jr. Likewise Rapid-fired Six Shots In 1.7 Seconds

John Hinckley Jr. likewise rapid-fired six shots in 1.7 seconds during his 1981 attempt on President Reagan. Even the recent Shinzo Abe assassination in 2022 involved two shotgun blasts – the homemade weapon’s first shot missed and the second proved fatal. By contrast, a one-shot, one-kill scenario like the Charlie Kirk shooting is highly atypical, with few modern precedents outside of military-st...

Martin Luther King Jr.’s Assassination In 1968 Is A Closer

Martin Luther King Jr.’s assassination in 1968 is a closer analogy: James Earl Ray fired one rifle round from a boarding house window, striking King’s neck/jaw from roughly 200 feet away. That single .30-06 bullet was instantly mortal. Another example is the 2003 killing of Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjić, who was fatally shot by a sniper from a distant building – a professionally executed h...

Indeed, The Norm In Both Historical And Contemporary Attacks Is

Indeed, the norm in both historical and contemporary attacks is for attackers – especially lone-wolf extremists – to fire repeatedly until they can no longer do so (either jammed, tackled, or out of ammo). In the chaotic 1968 RFK shooting, Sirhan kept “firing his gun in random directions” until subdued. In 1981, Hinckley’s six-shot barrage wounded not just Reagan but several others. More recently,...

Even The Attempted Assassination Of Donald Trump At A Pennsylvania

Even the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at a Pennsylvania rally in July 2024 was a “deadly shooting” with multiple shots fired, not a single round. In that case, the sniper-positioned gunman struck a bystander fatally and grazed Mr. Trump amid several shots before fleeing. The Charlie Kirk case – a single rifle round from ~200 yards that struck the target’s neck and nothing else – is virt...