University of Kwazulu-Natal

Singularity Timing Predictions Acceleration Watch

Bonisiwe Shabane
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singularity timing predictions acceleration watch

[2025 Note: Most of this was written in 1999-2002, after reading Ray Kurzweil's excellent Age of Spiritual Machines, 1999. That book is still worth reading today, though it's too optimistic outside of the AI topics. I've added very occasional updates since, usually [date bracketed]]. There are a wide variety of opinions about the likelihood and timing of the technological singularity (a generalized human-surpassing artificial intelligence) among those who take this concept seriously. [2025 Note: I find the distinction between artifical general intelligence and artificial superintelligence of little value. Any true AGI will effectively immediately become an ASI.

"Singularity" here refers to the arrival of AGI/ASI.] Some theorists, such as Brandon Carter, Richard Gott, John Leslie, Nick Bostrom, and Robin Hansen, consider the coming transition essentially a matter of chance and choice, a test that we might easily not pass,... Others, such as myself, suspect the arrival of autonomous technological intelligence to be a virtually statistically inevitable development (e.g., extremely probable as a physical event) but propose that the manner and timing of the... We'll skip further discussion of the probability of the technological singularity for now. Assuming its likelihood, we will next consider the range of existing predictions on the approximate time of arrival of the event. A few brief but fundamental observations should be made before we begin.

By Jim Shimabukuro (assisted by ChatGPT, Copilot, DeepSeek, Grok, Perplexity, Claude, Gemini, Meta)Editor Introduction: I asked eight chatbots to predict the arrival of singularity – the moment when AI first surpasses humanity. Their estimate and rationale are listed below, from the earliest to the latest. -js Short answer: my best guesstimate is that a true “singularity” — understood here as AI systems that reliably and broadly exceed human cognitive ability in essentially all domains and can rapidly self-improve in ways... I would center my personal estimate near 2040 (give or take a decade), while recognizing very wide uncertainty: low single-digit chances that something like it appears by 2026, much larger but still modest odds...

What follows explains why I place the median in that band and the two or three reasons that most shape that judgment. The first reason to expect arrival sooner rather than much later is empirical momentum: model capabilities, algorithmic improvements, and the compute budgets devoted to frontier models have all been accelerating. The last few years have delivered language and multimodal models that already match or beat humans on a variety of benchmarks, and engineering advances (model architecture tweaks, system engineering, multi-modal inputs, better training methods)... We analyzed 8,590 scientists’, leading entrepreneurs’, and the community’s predictions for quick answers on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) / singularity timeline: Explore key predictions on AGI from experts like Sam Altman and Demis Hassabis, insights from major AI surveys on AGI timelines, and arguments for and against the feasibility of AGI: This timeline outlines the anticipated year of the singularity, based on insights gathered from 15 surveys, including responses from 8,590 AI researchers, scientists, and participants in prediction markets:

As you can see above, survey respondents are increasingly expecting the singularity to occur earlier than previously expected. Below you can see the studies and predictions that make up this timeline, or skip to understanding the singularity. In 2025, renowned futurist and Google AI visionary Ray Kurzweil released a major update to his predictions on the technological singularity—a moment when artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence and transforms civilization. His new book, The Singularity Is Nearer, refines the timeline for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), longevity breakthroughs, and the merging of humans with machines2. Kurzweil’s vision remains bold, but increasingly plausible. With exponential advances in computing, biotechnology, and neural interfaces, the countdown to the singularity is accelerating.

Kurzweil’s predictions are grounded in his “Law of Accelerating Returns,” which posits that technological progress grows exponentially—not linearly. The technological singularity refers to a future point when AI becomes smarter than humans and begins to improve itself autonomously. This could lead to: Kurzweil envisions a world where humans connect their brains to the cloud, enhancing cognition and creativity. ✨ Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is AI that can perform any intellectual task a human can, at human level. Based on expert surveys and predictions, AGI is anticipated to be achieved around the 2040s.

For example, the AI Impacts 2023 survey, with 2,778 AI researchers, suggests a median timeline of 2047 for high-level machine intelligence, which aligns with AGI in some definitions. However, community predictions on Metaculus estimate it could be as early as 2030 (Metaculus Prediction). ✨ Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) is AI that surpasses human intelligence in all areas. By one major metric, artificial general intelligence is much closer than you think. Here’s what you’ll learn when you read this story: In the world of artificial intelligence, the idea of “singularity” looms large.

This slippery concept describes the moment AI exceeds beyond human control and rapidly transforms society. The tricky thing about AI singularity (and why it borrows terminology from black hole physics) is that it’s enormously difficult to predict where it begins and nearly impossible to know what’s beyond this technological... However, some AI researchers are on the hunt for signs of reaching singularity measured by AI progress approaching the skills and ability comparable to a human. One such metric, defined by Translated, a Rome-based translation company, is an AI’s ability to translate speech at the accuracy of a human. Language is one of the most difficult AI challenges, but a computer that could close that gap could theoretically show signs of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The AI revolution is happening faster than experts ever predicted — and we’ve hit the turning point.

The long-debated arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI) may be closer than we think, with some experts suggesting we could reach the technological singularity within the next year. A new analysis of nearly 8,600 expert predictions reveals shifting timelines, particularly since the rise of large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT. While previous estimates placed AGI’s emergence around 2060, recent advancements have led many to revise their forecasts to as early as 2030. Some industry leaders, however, believe AGI’s arrival is imminent, and with the rapid progression of computing power and potential breakthroughs in quantum computing, we may soon see machines capable of surpassing human intelligence. Despite the excitement, skepticism remains. Some researchers argue that intelligence is more than just computational power, encompassing emotional, social, and existential dimensions that machines may never fully replicate.

Others question whether AI, no matter how advanced, can independently drive scientific discoveries or simply act as an accelerator for human innovation. While the exact timeline for AGI remains uncertain, one thing is clear: humanity is on the brink of an AI-driven transformation, and the choices we make now will determine whether this future benefits or... Bank of America reports that India has become the world’s largest and most active market for large language model adoption, driven by its vast online population, low data costs, and young, tech-savvy users. Chinese open-source artificial intelligence models from companies such as Alibaba and DeepSeek are rapidly gaining adoption in the United States, driven by lower costs and flexibility, even as Washington sharpens its rivalry with Beijing... New multi institution research suggests that small specialized tools wrapped around a frozen large language model can match the accuracy of heavily fine tuned agents while using 70x less training data, validating a modular... The article outlines 10 workplace artificial intelligence tools that help teams cut busywork, improve communication, and standardize workflows across hiring, HR, projects, and operations in 2026.

It explains which platforms fit different environments, from productivity suites and messaging to HR systems and service management. prime minister mark carney is steering canada’s artificial intelligence strategy away from sweeping regulation toward economic growth and sovereign infrastructure, while key details of governance and funding remain unsettled. The technological singularity, often simply called the singularity,[1] is a hypothetical event in which technological growth accelerates beyond human control, producing unpredictable changes in human civilization.[2][3] According to the most popular version of the... J. Good's intelligence explosion model of 1965, an upgradable intelligent agent could eventually enter a positive feedback loop of successive self-improvement cycles; more intelligent generations would appear more and more rapidly, causing an explosive increase... Some scientists, including Stephen Hawking, have expressed concern that artificial superintelligence could result in human extinction.[5][6] The consequences of a technological singularity and its potential benefit or harm to the human race have been...

Prominent technologists and academics dispute the plausibility of a technological singularity and associated artificial intelligence "explosion", including Paul Allen,[7] Jeff Hawkins,[8] John Holland, Jaron Lanier, Steven Pinker,[8] Theodore Modis,[9] Gordon Moore,[8] and Roger Penrose.[10]... Stuart J. Russell and Peter Norvig observe that in the history of technology, improvement in a particular area tends to follow an S curve: it begins with accelerating improvement, then levels off without continuing upward into... Alan Turing, often regarded as the father of modern computer science, laid a crucial foundation for contemporary discourse on the technological singularity. His pivotal 1950 paper "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" argued that a machine could, in theory, exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to or indistinguishable from that of a human.[12] However, machines capable of performing at or... The Hungarian–American mathematician John von Neumann (1903–1957) is the first known person to discuss a coming "singularity" in technological progress.[14][15] Stanislaw Ulam reported in 1958 that an earlier discussion with von Neumann "centered on...

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