Singularity Here S When Humanity Will Reach It New Data Shows Esquire

By one major metric, artificial general intelligence is much closer than you think. In the world of artificial intelligence, the idea of “singularity” looms large. This slippery concept describes the moment AI exceeds beyond human control and rapidly transforms society. The tricky thing about AI singularity (and why it borrows terminology from black hole physics) is that it’s enormously difficult to predict where it begins and nearly impossible to know what’s beyond this technological... However, some AI researchers are on the hunt for signs of reaching singularity measured by AI progress approaching the skills and ability comparable to a human. One such metric, defined by Translated, a Rome-based translation company, is an AI’s ability to translate speech at the accuracy of a human.

Language is one of the most difficult AI challenges, but a computer that could close that gap could theoretically show signs of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). “That’s because language is the most natural thing for humans,” Translated CEO Marco Trombetti said at a conference in Orlando, Florida, in December. “Nonetheless, the data Translated collected clearly shows that machines are not that far from closing the gap.” The company tracked its AI’s performance from 2014 to 2022 using a metric called “Time to Edit,” or TTE, which calculates the time it takes for professional human editors to fix AI-generated translations compared... Over that 8-year period and analyzing over 2 billion post-edits, Translated’s AI showed a slow, but undeniable improvement as it slowly closed the gap toward human-level translation quality. And the impending singularity may spell our end even sooner.

Here’s what you’ll learn when you read this story: Based on the U.N.’s projections, our world population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and up to 9.7 billion in 2050. Then, the peak happens at 10.4 billion during the 2080s, and the decline starts around 2100. Hell, that forecast may even be a bit on the high side, according to a University of Washington study funded by the Gates Foundation. The point is, with the world’s population passing 8 billion late last year, the global population peak is drawing rapidly closer. But so, too, is singularity—the concept of artificial intelligence exceeding beyond human control and rapidly transforming society.

(One trend shows we’ll reach singularity in just 5 years.) Will singularity throw an entirely different wrinkle into the population peak? The world is awash in predictions of when the singularity will occur or when artificial general intelligence (AGI) will arrive. Ssome experts predict it will never happen, while others are marking their calendars for 2026. A new macro analysis of surveys over the past 15 years shows where scientists and industry experts stand on the question and how their predictions have changed over time, especially after the arrival of... Although predictions vary across a span of almost a half-century, most agree than AGI will arrive before the end of the 21st century. Since the arrival of the large language models (LLMs) that have now seeped into seemingly every nook and cranny of our digital lives, scientists, experts, industry leaders, and pretty much everyone else have some...

Some researchers who’ve studied the emergence of machine intelligence think that the singularity—the theoretical point where machine surpasses man in intelligence—could occur within decades. On the other end of the prediction spectrum, there’s the CEO of Anthropic, who thinks we’re right on the threshold—give it about 12 more months or so. A new analysis poring over “8,590 scientists’, leading entrepreneurs’ and community’s predictions” tries to make sense of all the confusing AI predictions that exist today and tracks changes in those predictions over time. This macro investigation was conducted by a research outfit called AIMultiple, which evaluates new technologies using robust data analysis techniques. Although this survey does look at different AI thresholds (such as artificial general intelligence (AGI) and AI superintelligence), AI industry leaders were overall more bullish on their predictions. Most respondents, however, believed AGI would likely occur within the next half-century.

The world is awash in predictions of when the singularity will occur or when artificial general intelligence (AGI) will arrive. Some experts predict it will never happen, while others are marking their calendars for 2026. A new macro analysis of surveys over the past 15 years shows where scientists and industry experts stand on the question and how their predictions have changed over time, especially after the arrival of... Although predictions vary across a span of almost a half-century, most agree than AGI will arrive before the end of the 21st century. Since the arrival of the large language models (LLMs) that have now seeped into seemingly every nook and cranny of our digital lives, scientists, experts, industry leaders, and pretty much everyone else have some... Some researchers who’ve studied the emergence of machine intelligence think that the singularity—the theoretical point where machine surpasses man in intelligence—could occur within decades.

On the other end of the prediction spectrum, there’s the CEO of Anthropic, who thinks we’re right on the threshold—give it about 12 more months or so. It is possible that the singularity, when machines become smarter than humans, is not far off. While earlier predictions said AGI would arrive by 2060, new progress in LLMs has made the timeline much shorter. AIMultiple, a tech research group, has found that some prominent AI experts now think the singularity could appear in as little as six months. The study analyzed over 8,500 predictions made by scientists, entrepreneurs, and members of the AI community and found a clear gap. Although many researchers believe AGI will arrive by 2040, entrepreneurs are now more confident and predict it could happen as early as 2030.

According to Anthropic’s CEO, humanity might achieve AGI before the year 2025 is over. The rapid increase in computing power is a major reason for this optimism. Because of Moore’s Law, which predicts a doubling of computing power every 18 months, LLMs are getting closer to thinking like humans. Even if the current hardware reaches its limit, experts think quantum computing could keep AI moving forward. However, some people are not convinced by the hype. Some argue that the current definition of AGI does not capture the full range of human intelligence, which includes abilities like interpersonal and existential intelligence that machines have not yet developed.

Yann LeCun, an AI pioneer, suggests that AGI should be called “advanced machine intelligence” because real human-level understanding could be much more complicated. Although the exact moment is not known, it is certain that humanity is about to experience a major change. No matter if AGI comes in six months or sixty years, it will have a huge effect on science, society, and civilization. The report points out that these systems can help with discoveries, but they are not the main reason for them. The singularity, if it happens, could be a gradual change, not a sudden burst of intelligence. United Nations projections point to the world population peaking at roughly 10.4 billion people before 2100.

Not all researchers agree on the population peak, with one Gates Foundation-funded study suggesting population is nearing peak now. Can AI reaching singularity have a declining result on human population? Based on the U.N.’s projections, our world population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and up to 9.7 billion in 2050. Then, the peak happens at 10.4 billion during the 2080s, and the decline starts around 2100. Hell, that forecast may even be a bit on the high side, according to a University of Washington study funded by the Gates Foundation. The point is, with the world’s population passing 8 billion late last year, the global population peak is drawing rapidly closer.

But so, too, is singularity—the concept of artificial intelligence exceeding beyond human control and rapidly transforming society. (One trend shows we’ll reach singularity in just 7 years.) Will singularity throw an entirely different wrinkle into the population peak? Your global information source on bioethics news, issues, & events (Popular Mechanics via MSN) – An American computer scientist-turned-futurist, Kurzweil has long believed that humanity is headed toward what’s known as “the singularity,” when man and machine merge. In 1999, Kurzweil theorized that artificial general intelligence would be achieved once humanity could achieve a technology capable of a trillion calculations per second, which he pegged to occur 2029. Experts at the time scoffed at the idea, figuring it’d be at least a century or more, but with Kurzweil’s timeline only a few years off—and talk of AGI spreading—that decades-old prediction is beginning...

Now in his new book published last month, The Singularity is Nearer (a play on his 2005 book of the same name minus an “er”), Kurzweil doubles down on these ideas in the modern... (Read More) Posted in Artificial Intelligence, General Bioethics, Human Enhancement, News, People, Transhumanism bioethics.com © 2002–Present by CBHD is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Predicting the future isn’t for the faint of heart, especially when your ideas sound more like science fiction than reality. Yet that hasn’t stopped Ray Kurzweil.

The renowned futurist and inventor has spent decades envisioning a world where human consciousness and artificial intelligence merge, and the distinction between biology and technology blurs. And his track record has proven to be more than just speculative fiction. Kurzweil first made waves in 1999 with a bold assertion: artificial general intelligence (AGI) would be achieved by 2029, once computers could process a trillion calculations per second. At the time, critics dismissed this as pure fantasy, projecting that such advances would take a century or more to materialize. Fast forward to today, and Kurzweil’s prediction doesn’t seem so far-fetched. In his latest work, The Singularity Is Nearer (2024), a follow-up to his 2005 book, Kurzweil reaffirms his projections with even greater conviction.

Speaking at a TED Talk, he declared, “I’m sticking with my five years,” referring to his 2029 AGI forecast. But Kurzweil goes further, envisioning a future where, by 2045, human intelligence could increase “a millionfold” thanks to brain-machine interfaces developed using nanobots delicately introduced into our capillaries. As he explained to The Guardian, “We’re going to be a combination of our natural intelligence and our cybernetic intelligence… It is going to deepen our awareness and consciousness.” Kurzweil isn’t alone in his vision of human-machine convergence. In July 2024, Oxford thinkers Marcus du Sautoy and Nick Bostrom discussed the increasingly blurred boundary between humanity and artificial intelligence. Du Sautoy commented, “I think that we are headed toward a hybrid future… We still believe that we are the only beings with a high level of consciousness.

This is part of the whole Copernican journey that we are not unique. We’re not at the center.”

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