Quantum Technologies Financial Times

Niccolo de Masi insists IonQ’s tech is better than rivals’ — but some investors say it is unproven The path to scalable computers is paved with high-tech equipment not just high-impact academic papers Companies such as Phasecraft and Riverlane will need to be brave to remain independent If we want to capitalise on applications in the next five years, we need to lay the groundwork now Big Tech group says algorithm simulates molecular interactions 13,000 times faster than ‘classical’ supercomputers When it comes to quantum technology (QT), investment is surging and breakthroughs are multiplying.

The United Nations has designated 2025 the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology, celebrating 100 years since the initial development of quantum mechanics. Our research confirms that QT is gaining widespread traction worldwide. McKinsey’s fourth annual Quantum Technology Monitor covers last year’s breakthroughs, investment trends, and emerging opportunities in this fast-evolving landscape. In 2024, the QT industry saw a shift from growing quantum bits (qubits) to stabilizing qubits—and that marks a turning point. It signals to mission-critical industries that QT could soon become a safe and reliable component of their technology infrastructure. To that end, this year’s report provides a special deep dive into the fast-growing market of quantum communication, which could unlock the security needed for widespread QT uptake.

Quantum technology encompasses three subfields: Our new research shows that the three core pillars of QT—quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum sensing—could together generate up to $97 billion in revenue worldwide by 2035. Quantum computing will capture the bulk of that revenue, growing from $4 billion in revenue in 2024 to as much as $72 billion in 2035 (see sidebar “What is quantum technology?”). While QT will affect many industries, the chemicals, life sciences, finance, and mobility industries will see the most growth. McKinsey initiated its annual quantum technology report in 2021 to track the rapidly evolving quantum technology landscape. We analyze three principal areas of the field: quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum sensing.

The analysis is based on input from various sources, including publicly available data, expert interviews, and proprietary McKinsey analyses. The conclusions and estimations have been cross-checked across market databases and validated through investor reports, press releases, and expert input. Because not all deal values are publicly disclosed and databases are updated continuously, our research does not provide a definitive or exhaustive list of start-ups, funding activities, investment splits, or patents and publications. The next generation of quantum computers will open a new world of possibilities, but also pose enormous risks to our online security They call it Q-day. That is the day when a robust quantum computer, like this one, will be able to crack the most common encryption method used to secure our digital data.

Q-day will have massive implications for all internet companies, banks and governments — as well as our own personal privacy. We know that this will happen one day. The only question is when. For the moment, quantum computers, which exploit the spooky physics of subatomic particles, remain too unstable to perform sophisticated operations for long. IBM’s Osprey computer, thought to be the most powerful quantum computer yet developed, only has 433 qubits (or quantum bits) when most computer scientists consider it would take 1mn to realise the technology’s potential. That may still be a decade away.

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