Quantum Computing The Next Frontier Or The Next Bubble

Bonisiwe Shabane

-Jan 2, 2026, 2:37 PM

quantum computing the next frontier or the next bubble

On December 10, I gave a keynote address at the Q2B 2025 Conference in Silicon Valley. This is a transcript of my remarks. The slides I presented are here. We are nearing the end of the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology, so designated to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the discovery of quantum mechanics in 1925. The story goes that 23-year-old Werner Heisenberg, seeking relief from severe hay fever, sailed to the remote North Sea Island of Helgoland, where a crucial insight led to his first, and notoriously obscure, paper... In the years following, that framework was clarified and extended by Heisenberg and others.

Notably among them was Paul Dirac, who emphasized that we have a theory of almost everything that matters in everyday life. It’s the Schrödinger equation, which captures the quantum behavior of many electrons interacting electromagnetically with one another and with atomic nuclei. That describes everything in chemistry and materials science and all that is built on those foundations. But, as Dirac lamented, in general the equation is too complicated to solve for more than a few electrons. Somehow, over 50 years passed before Richard Feynman proposed that if we want a machine to help us solve quantum problems, it should be a quantum machine, not a classical machine. The quest for such a machine, he observed, is “a wonderful problem because it doesn’t look so easy,” a statement that still rings true.

I was drawn into that quest about 30 years ago. It was an exciting time. Efficient quantum algorithms for the factoring and discrete log problems were discovered, followed rapidly by the first quantum error-correcting codes and the foundations of fault-tolerant quantum computing. By late 1996, it was firmly established that a noisy quantum computer could simulate an ideal quantum computer efficiently if the noise is not too strong or strongly correlated. Many of us were then convinced that powerful fault-tolerant quantum computers could eventually be built and operated. Have you ever wondered if quantum computing is truly the next big thing, or just overhyped tech jargon meant to attract investment and media attention?

I remember the first time I read about a quantum computer successfully factoring a number faster than any classical machine. It was electrifying—but as I followed the money flowing into quantum startups, my excitement was mixed with skepticism. We’ve seen bubbles before: dot-com, blockchain, even artificial intelligence to some extent. So is quantum any different? Let’s dig into the facts, the feelings, and the future behind quantum computing economics—because it may just reshape everything we know about finance, data, and innovation, or go down as another classic case of... Let’s start with the basics: quantum computing leverages the principles of quantum mechanics—superposition and entanglement—to perform certain computations astronomically faster than classical computers.

On paper, this sounds world-changing. Imagine instantly breaking current encryption, solving protein folding for drug discovery, optimizing logistics across entire economies, and even redefining material science. The narrative is seductive, and it’s drawn enormous attention from venture capitalists and global tech giants alike. But here’s the reality check: most current quantum computers are in the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era, meaning they are powerful but extremely prone to errors and not yet capable of doing many things... The dream is real, but the execution? We’re not quite there yet.

Still, the hype persists, bolstered by flagship investments and government initiatives—mirroring early optimism seen in previous tech bubbles. What makes quantum different, though, is the underlying science and international momentum. Entities like IBM, Google, and countries like China and the US are racing not only for commercial dominance but also for strategic and national security advantages. If even a fraction of the touted breakthroughs are realized, entire industries could be upended overnight. So, is quantum computing a game-changer or another bubble in the making? My own hunch is that while the fundamental vision is real, the market timing and scale may be misunderstood—something that investors and businesses must navigate with caution.

Quantum computing is emerging as the next frontier in technology and it has the potential to solve problems that today’s computers cannot touch; transforming industries from cryptography to drug discovery. Yet, despite billions invested and headlines touting breakthroughs, practical quantum advantage remains years away. Investors should watch this space carefully but resist the temptation to chase the hype. This article breaks down the key components of the quantum computing ecosystem, from processors and infrastructure to software and real-world use cases, exploring how investors and business leaders can participate in its growth. We cover the main hardware technologies, supporting infrastructure providers, early commercial applications, current public investment opportunities, risks to watch and some principles for investing in the space. Quantum computing is an emerging field in computer science and engineering that leverages the principles of quantum mechanics to tackle problems that exceed the capabilities of even the most powerful classical computers.

The field of quantum computing includes a range of disciplines, including quantum hardware and quantum algorithms. Classical computers, from smartphones to supercomputers, process information using bits (i.e., they are in one of the two states ‘1’ or ‘0’). These computers handle tasks by manipulating bits through logical operations, often in parallel across multiple processors to speed up computations. However, their performance is limited by the need to evaluate solutions step-by-step for complex problems, such as factoring large numbers or simulating chemical reactions. Quantum computers use quantum bits (qubits), which differ fundamentally from classical bits. Due to a property called superposition, a qubit can represent 0, 1, or a combination of both states simultaneously.

This enables quantum computers to process multiple potential solutions at once. Additionally, qubits can be entangled, meaning the state of one qubit is linked to another, allowing coordinated computations that classical systems cannot replicate. These properties make quantum computers potentially far faster for certain tasks such as cryptography, molecular modelling or risk analysis, though they are not universally superior and require specialised algorithms to outperform classical systems. Governments and tech companies continue to pour money into quantum technology in the hopes of building a supercomputer that can work at speeds we can't yet fathom to solve big problems. Imagine a computer that could solve incredibly complex problems at a speed we can't yet fathom and bring about breakthroughs in fields like drug development or clean energy. That is widely considered the promise of quantum computing.

In 2025, tech companies poured money into this field. The Trump administration also named quantum computing as a priority. But when will this technology actually deliver something useful for regular people? NPR's Katia Riddle reports on the difference between quantum hype and quantum reality. KATIA RIDDLE, BYLINE: Tech companies like Google and Microsoft, as well as the U.S. government, bet big on quantum computing in 2025.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #1: Google Quantum AI is unveiling the first demonstration of verifiable quantum advantage. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Joining forces on quantum computing. Quantum computing has moved from research labs to surging stock valuations and massive investment flows, with some firms posting gains of hundreds of percentage points. While breakthroughs in hardware, funding, and interest from major tech players fuel optimism, many quantum firms still lack consistent commercial revenue and remain speculative. As the hype builds, 2026 could mark a moment of reckoning, where only firms with real technology and business models survive, and others risk dramatic corrections. Artificial Intelligence has dominated the technology landscape and reshaped industries.

While AI continues to grow, investors and innovators are already searching for the next breakthrough. All eyes are turning to the next big leap in computational power, which is quantum computing. This excitement has pushed quantum startups into the spotlight, with valuations soaring and market expectations rising even faster. It has shifted from a niche area to one of the most hyped and heavily funded domains in modern technology. The key question becomes: Will quantum computing deliver breakthroughs or a sharp market correction? New machines will use individual atoms as qubits

The goal of the quantum-computing industry is to build a powerful, functional machine capable of solving large-scale problems in science and industry that classical computing can’t solve. We won’t get there in 2026. In fact, scientists have been working toward that goal since at least the 1980s, and it has proved difficult, to say the least. “If someone says quantum computers are commercially useful today, I say I want to have what they’re having,” said Yuval Boger, chief commercial officer of the quantum-computing startup QuEra, on stage at the Q+AI... This article is part of our special report Top Tech 2026. Because the goal is so lofty, tracking its progress has also been difficult.

To help chart a course toward truly transformative quantum technology and mark milestones along the path, the team at Microsoft Quantum has come up with a new framework. For nearly a century, classical computing has fueled human progress. From the punch cards of the 1940s to the smartphones in our pockets, we’ve ridden the exponential wave of Moore’s Law—a doubling of transistor density every two years. But even the most intricate silicon chip, packed with billions of transistors, is running up against the limits of physics. At the smallest scales, classical logic starts to wobble. Electrons tunnel through barriers.

Heat becomes unmanageable. The world of bits begins to look… too simple. Nature, it turns out, doesn’t run on binary alone. At the subatomic level, reality doesn’t behave like a spreadsheet. It dances. It flickers between states.

It interferes with itself. It gets entangled. This is the world of quantum mechanics, and for decades it has both bewildered and inspired physicists. But now, out of the cloud of equations and paradoxes, something tangible is emerging—a machine built not just to simulate nature, but to embody it. Quantum computing is not just a faster calculator. It’s an entirely new way of thinking, one that mirrors the deepest truths of the universe.

And as we stand at the edge of this frontier, the implications are nothing short of revolutionary. To understand what makes a quantum computer different, we must first unlearn the tidy world of ones and zeroes. In a classical computer, every piece of information is encoded in bits—tiny switches that are either on (1) or off (0). These bits are strung together into longer sequences that represent letters, images, sound, software, and everything else in the digital age. The next tech revolution is here—and it’s not artificial intelligence (AI). While AI is transforming how we analyze and leverage data, quantum computing is poised to surpass it, stepping into the spotlight with even greater potential.

Quantum Computing The Next Frontier Or The Next Bubble

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