University of Kwazulu-Natal

Prediction Consensus What The Experts See Coming In 2026

Bonisiwe Shabane
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prediction consensus what the experts see coming in 2026

For the seventh straight year, we’ve sifted through the forecast landscape to bring you the Prediction Consensus, a synthesis of what analysts, thought leaders, and industry experts expect for the year ahead. This year, we analyzed over 2,000 individual predictions from a wide variety of sources including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, the IMF, The Economist, Deloitte, Microsoft, Gartner, and dozens more. By mapping where these forecasts overlap, we’ve distilled the noise into 25 high-conviction themes displayed in our “Bingo Card” format, with the number of dabs reflecting the volume of supporting predictions. If 2025 was a year of adjustment—markets recalibrating to higher rates, geopolitics reshuffling around a second Trump administration and tariffs, and AI moving from hype to deployment—then 2026 is shaping up as a year... The consensus mood is cautiously optimistic but shot through with uncertainty. Morgan Stanley describes 2026 as “The Year of Risk Reboot,” a period where market focus shifts from macro anxieties to micro fundamentals, creating fertile ground for risk assets.

The policy backdrop is unusually supportive: fiscal stimulus, continued (if slower) monetary easing, and deregulation form what analysts call a “policy triumvirate” rarely seen outside of recessions. If 2025 was the year of the “Great Recalibration,” then 2026 is the year where the dust finally settles—and the real work begins. Cautiously optimistic, but structurally turbulent. While markets are looking at a “Risk Reboot,” the geopolitical floor beneath us is shifting. Here are the high-conviction themes you need to know to navigate the next 12 months. For three years, AI has dominated the headlines.

But in 2026, the conversation shifts from “What can it do?” to “What is it earning us?” The Rise of Agentic AI: This is the year of the “Digital Colleague.” We are moving beyond chatbots to autonomous systems that can plan, act, and adapt. Deloitte predicts that 75% of companies will invest in agentic AI by year-end. For the seventh straight year, we’ve sifted through the forecast landscape to bring you the Prediction Consensus, a synthesis of what analysts, thought leaders, and industry experts expect for the year ahead. This year, we analyzed over 2,000 individual predictions from a wide variety of sources including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, the IMF, The Economist, Deloitte, Microsoft, Gartner, and dozens more. By mapping where these forecasts overlap, we’ve distilled the noise into 25 high-conviction themes displayed in our “Bingo Card” format, with the number of dabs reflecting the volume of supporting predictions.

If 2025 was a year of adjustment—markets recalibrating to higher rates, geopolitics reshuffling around a second Trump administration and tariffs, and AI moving from hype to deployment—then 2026 is shaping up as a year... The consensus mood is cautiously optimistic but shot through with uncertainty. Morgan Stanley describes 2026 as “The Year of Risk Reboot,” a period where market focus shifts from macro anxieties to micro fundamentals, creating fertile ground for risk assets. The policy backdrop is unusually supportive: fiscal stimulus, continued (if slower) monetary easing, and deregulation form what analysts call a “policy triumvirate” rarely seen outside of recessions. For Americans who felt 2025 was a ceaseless storm of norm-challenging change, there may be balm in the celebrations of the republic’s 250th birthday on July 4. But more soberly, 2026 will also be marked by Supreme Court decisions that could upend the very foundation of our democracy.

Will work insecurity grow as AI matures from loud infancy into a tricky “technolescence”? What will memes have to teach us? And what about that new musical genre bubbling out of Asia? Bruin experts cast a light on the path ahead. UCLA Anderson School of Management macroeconomist Clement Bohr predicts the economy will remain largely “frozen” out of the gate but will see improvements as the year progresses on the back of fiscal and monetary... His overall general outlook is “rosy, with stimulations from the Big Beautiful Bill working through, if — and it’s a big if — administration polices remain stable and predictable.”

Bohr, an adjunct professor of global economics and management, is monitoring talk of an artificial intelligence bubble — just seven AI-fueled companies account for a third of all Wall Street wealth. But Bohr believes the tech giants are so flush with cash that even if some spending is kept off balance sheets through “special vehicles” created by often-veiled private credit concerns, the companies “can ride... “Right now, these giants generate about $60 billion a year in AI-related revenue,” Bohr says. “But by 2030, to keep up with rising chip power and costs, that will have to be between half a trillion and a trillion dollars.” A leading researcher behind the internationally cited UCLA Anderson Forecast, Bohr is most concerned about the forthcoming Supreme Court decision as to whether a president can replace board members of the long-independent Federal Reserve... “Economics is a social science, not a hard science, but one certainty that unites all economists is that subjecting federal money policy to political rather than business cycles, typically lowering interest rates for election...

(Turkey’s hastily lowered interest rates resulted in 87% inflation; its interest rates are now around 38%.) “We have not hit the Fed’s inflation target for five years, and even a slight signal about loss... 2026 will see AI boost research across many areas, especially biomedicine. But there will be a price to pay and a need to consider the toxic side effects as it grows from loud infant into hungry teen, says Ramesh Srinivasan, professor of information studies at... It’s not just land, water, electricity and overexcited marketing that are key factors, but also AI’s social justice and social-psychological effects. Can we keep up with the rapid changes, with governments willing or capable of shielding us from the dark side of this new wave of technology? Says Srinivasan: “We may start to find out in 2026.”

We analyzed 2000+ expert predictions to identify the top themes for 2026, from professional-class job anxiety to cautious market optimism https://www.visualcapitalist.com/prediction-consensus-what-the-experts-see-coming-in-2026/ You’ll always get the main graphic image after licensing. Data files and design files are available upon request. We analyzed over 2,000 predictions from articles, reports, podcasts, and interviews to see what experts are predicting for the coming year. Below, we dig into a few of the top themes.

For the seventh straight year, we’ve sifted through the forecast landscape to bring you the Prediction Consensus, a synthesis of what analysts, thought leaders, and industry experts expect for the year ahead. This year, we analyzed over 2,000 individual predictions from a wide variety of sources including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, the IMF, The Economist, Deloitte, Microsoft, Gartner, and dozens more. By mapping where these forecasts overlap, we’ve distilled the noise into 25 high-conviction themes displayed in our “Bingo Card” format, with the number of dabs reflecting the volume of supporting predictions. To get the full analysis of the Prediction Consensus and to see what’s ahead for 2026, become a member of VC+ or purchase the full Global Forecast Series report and package. The global economy is forecast to generate “sturdy” growth in 2026, according to Goldman Sachs Research. In fact, our economists’ projections for most major countries are at or above consensus estimates.

What is the global economic outlook for 2026? Global GDP is projected by Goldman Sachs Research to increase 2.8% in 2026 (versus the consensus forecast of 2.5%). US economic growth is expected to accelerate to 2.6%, while China’s GDP expands 4.8% as strong exports outweigh sluggish domestic demand. Despite longer-term challenges, our economists predict the euro area economy will increase 1.3%, owing to fiscal stimulus in Germany and strong growth in Spain. “As has typically been the case since the pandemic, we are most optimistic (relative to consensus) in the US,” writes Jan Hatzius, chief economist and head of Goldman Sachs Research, in the team’s report... What is the forecast for US GDP growth in 2026?

~oracle ~econ ~AI ~science ~tech ~Stacker_Stocks ~Politics_And_Law Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2026 We analyzed over 2,000 predictions from articles, reports, podcasts, and interviews to see what experts are predicting for the coming year. Below, we dig into a few of the top themes. For the seventh straight year, we’ve sifted through the forecast landscape to bring you the Prediction Consensus, a synthesis of what analysts, thought leaders, and industry experts expect for the year ahead. This year, we analyzed over 2,000 individual predictions from a wide variety of sources including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, the IMF, The Economist, Deloitte, Microsoft, Gartner, and dozens more. By mapping where these forecasts overlap, we’ve distilled the noise into 25 high-conviction themes displayed in our “Bingo Card” format, with the number of dabs reflecting the volume of supporting predictions.

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