Noaa Nws Storm Prediction Center

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 31 Dec #TornadoStrong: A Partnership with FLASH 100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 31 Dec 300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 31 Dec 1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 31 Dec This site shows the chances for Severe Weather and Fire Weather over the next 8 days.

Browse a range of information on severe weather events including tornadoes, thunderstorms, winds, and hail. Visualizes the probability of high rain rates that may lead to flash flooding over the next several days at over 60 major U.S. cities. Interface for specialized WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Maps for NWS County Warning Areas and States. Custom plots of Local Storm Reports across the Contiguous United States. Reports include rain, snow, ice, and severe weather, as well as other significant information from storm spotters.

Displays the climatological significance of precipitation forecast by WPC. The climatological significance is represented by Average Recurrence Intervals (ARIs) of precipitation estimates from NOAA Atlas-14 and Atlas2. An interactive situational awareness table that displays anomalies, percentiles, and return intervals from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF Ensembles (login required to view ECMWF data). A strong atmospheric river will continue heavy rain over southern California through Friday. The heaviest rainfall is ongoing today in the Los Angeles Basin. Flash and urban flooding is possible.

A prolonged heavy snowfall has begun over the Sierra Nevada Mountains and will continue through Friday. Travel will become increasingly difficult over the passes due to snow and strong winds. Read More > $( document ).ready(function() { $('.feature').hide(); $('.one-third-first').show(); $('.one-third-first img').css({ 'width': '935px' }); $('.one-third-first img').css('border', '0px'); /* vote.gov */ //$( ".div-half" ).eq(0).append( '<br><a href="https://vote.gov">Vote.gov</a>' ); /* Addition of button on top/left hand part of weather.gov is... //$( "div.five-sixth-last" ).append('**<em>Our web pages are undergoing maintenance, which may result in the display of old data. This message will be removed once maintenance is complete.</em>'); const divs = document.querySelectorAll('.full-width-first.communication-links .one-sixth-first.divs'); // If there are at least 3, insert after the third if (divs.length >= 3) { divs[2].insertAdjacentHTML('afterend', ` <div class="one-sixth-first...

US Dept of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service 1325 East West Highway Silver Spring, MD 20910 Comments? Questions? Please Contact Us. Significant Tornado Probabilities: 31 Dec #TornadoStrong: A Partnership with FLASH 100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 31 Dec

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 31 Dec 1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 31 Dec The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Weather Outlooks Web Service offers various polygon layers representing Convection Outlooks from Day 1 to Day 3. These encompass Category Outlooks for Significant and Probabilistic Tornado, Hail, and Wind Outlooks. Additionally, the service provides layers displaying forecasted polygons for Day 4 to Day 8 Probabilistic Outlooks. Further details regarding the layers included in this map service are outlined below.

Day 1 Layer contain: Separate 5-tier categorical, probabilistic tornado, hail and wind, significant tornado, hail and wind outlooks. Day 2 Layer contain: Separate 5-tier categorical, probabilistic tornado, hail and wind, significant tornado, hail and wind outlooks. Day 3 Layer contain: 5-tier categorical outlook, probabilistic severe, and significant severe. Days 4-8 Layers are all probabilistic outlooks. A map of all tornado (red), hail (green), and thunderstorm wind gust (blue) reports from NWS offices in 2024. With strong El Niño (ENSO warm phase) conditions continuing into the winter months, here's an analysis of how those conditions may influence the number of watch days in December.

The ENSO phase strength was ranked using the Multivariate ENSO Index, or MEI. The years with the 10 warmest (El Niño) and 10 coldest (La Niña) phases for the December to January time frame, back to 1970, were used to select the total* January watch days within... (*Divide grid cell numbers by 10 to arrive at monthly mean watch days in each phase). The top map shows the total watch days in the ten Januarys corresponding to the most pronounced El Niño conditions during December-January. The middle map shows the total watch days for the ten Januarys with most pronounced La Niña conditions during December-January. The bottom map shows the difference in total watch days between the strongest El Niño months and the strongest La Niña months.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is a US government agency that is part of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), operating under the control of the National Weather Service (NWS),[1] which in turn... Headquartered at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma, the Storm Prediction Center is tasked with forecasting the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the contiguous United States. It issues convective outlooks, mesoscale discussions, and watches as a part of this process. Convective outlooks are issued for the following eight days (issued separately for Day 1, Day 2, Day 3, and Days 4–8), and detail the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes during the given forecast... Day 3 uses a probabilistic scale from a Marginal to Moderate risk (A Day 3 High risk cannot be issued), while Days 4–8 use a probabilistic scale determining the probability for a severe weather... Mesoscale discussions are issued to provide information on certain individual regions where severe weather is becoming a threat and states whether a watch is likely and details thereof, particularly concerning conditions conducive for the...

Watches are issued when atmospheric conditions favor the development of severe weather. Once a storm/tornado is imminent or occurring (such as via weather spotters, radar, river gages, etc), a warning will be issued, and it usually precedes the onset of severe weather by one hour, although... The agency is also responsible for forecasting fire weather (indicating conditions that are favorable for wildfires) in the contiguous U.S., issuing fire weather outlooks for Days 1, 2, and 3–8, which detail areas with... The Storm Prediction Center began in 1952 as SELS (Severe Local Storms Unit), the U.S. Weather Bureau in Washington, D.C. In 1954, the unit moved its forecast operations to Kansas City, Missouri.

SELS began issuing convective outlooks for predicted thunderstorm activity in 1955, and began issuing radar summaries in three-hour intervals in 1960;[3] with the increased duties of compiling and disseminating radar summaries, this unit became...

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