Nfl Playoff Picture Week 16 Seahawks 49ers Control Paths To Top Seed

Bonisiwe Shabane

-Dec 28, 2025, 2:54 PM

nfl playoff picture week 16 seahawks 49ers control paths to top seed

More than half of the NFL's 14 playoff spots were clinched in Week 16. Four spots in the NFC were clinched by the Seahawks, Eagles, Bears and 49ers. Over in the AFC, the Patriots clinched on Sunday night. Then, with the Colts' loss on Monday night, the Jaguars, Chargers and Bills all clinched a spot. The Broncos control their own destiny to clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC, while the Seahawks and 49ers also do in the NFC.

Here's where things stand after Week 16. In the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (8-7), Baltimore Ravens (7-8) Every week for the duration of the 2025 regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the NFL's ever-evolving playoff picture − typically starting Sunday afternoon and then moving forward for the... And, when the holidays roll around, we'll be watching then, too). What just happened? What does it mean?

What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference's seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, Jan. 4. Here's where things stand with Week 16 underway: x − 1. Denver Broncos (12-2), AFC West leaders: The first team in the league to 12 wins and first AFC squad to clinch a playoff berth, New England's loss Sunday also boosted the Broncos' odds of...

1 seed. They can claim it in Week 16 if enough things break their way. Remaining schedule: vs. Jaguars, at Chiefs, vs. Chargers 2.

New England Patriots (11-3), AFC East leaders: Their 10-game heater snapped, they failed to clinch the division Sunday and lost valuable ground in their bid for the No. 1 seed. But the Pats are still in driver's seat to win AFC East and can wrap up a playoff spot with a win at Baltimore. Remaining schedule: at Ravens, at Jets, vs. Dolphins. The NFL postseason race is undergoing a profound change.

Week 16 delivered high-stakes drama and pivotal results, significantly impacting the NFL playoff picture today. Several key teams clinched a playoff spot this week. These victories significantly shaped the NFL playoff standings heading into the final two weeks. The path to the Super Bowl is becoming clearer, with crucial NFL tiebreaker scenarios now looming large. The National Football Conference offers a compelling conference championship race. The West currently leads the NFC playoff standings.

NFC Current Playoff Teams (*Clinched Playoff Spot) The Seattle Seahawks’ No. 1 seed status is strong. They can secure the top seed with two victories. The San Francisco 49ers’ playoff berth is a reality. They remain very much in play for the conference title race.

A Week 18 finale against the Seahawks could decide the No. 1 seed. The Los Angeles Rams’ playoff scenarios are now complicated, requiring help. Their odds for the top seed fell significantly after a tough defeat. The Chicago Bears have virtually secured their NFC North position. They hold a 92% chance of winning the division.

Strength of schedule favors them in the stretch. Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers’ NFC South command is a major story. Their win bumped them to a 44% chance for the division crown. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ division odds remain at 58% because they face Carolina again. This crucial head-to-head tiebreaker is paramount. The Philadelphia Eagles NFC East championship was secured.

They have a slim shot at the top seed. The Seahawks opened the path for the 49ers to earn the No. 1 seed. The Seattle Seahawks looked like a team that didn’t trust its quarterback. They were running the ball in situations perceived as passing. Sam Darnold threw two costly interceptions when Seattle let him throw.

They couldn’t have happened at worse times. On the flipside, Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua of the Los Angeles Rams connected for 12 receptions and 225 yards, while Stafford threw for 457 yards and three touchdowns en route to 37 points. Darnold threw an interception as the Seahawks’ offense was driving. Not only did it take points off the board for Seattle, but the Los Angeles Rams were opportunistic enough to not only catch it, but return it inside the five-yard line. That was the second time in as many games Darnold gifted the Rams the ball inside near the goal line. Speaking of the goal line, Darnold’s second interception came on a disguise he didn’t see coming.

It was yet another opportunity squashed. The final straw came when Seattle called a pair of screen passes and ran it on a drive after they tied the score at 30. Ahead of Sunday’s Week 16 games, the playoff picture is starting to take shape. Fourteen of the league’s 32 teams have been eliminated. The Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles have clinched postseason berths, and a host of other teams — the New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Chicago... That still leaves a lot of uncertainty about which remaining teams will make the playoffs and what seeds they would land if they do.

With the help of our NFL playoff simulator, we created tables that show every possible scenario for each of the 18 teams we could see in the playoffs. Consider them a starting point for exploration. Each cell in each table links directly to our simulator, which will let you explore any outcome, no matter how heartbreaking or implausible. The Patriots sit atop the AFC East, well-poised to end the Bills’ five-year run as division champions. Their best-case scenario remains the No. 1 seed and the bye week that comes with it.

That’s a real possibility if they win all of their remaining games, but they would still need the Broncos to lose two of their last three. Here's how the NFL playoff picture looks after Saturday's two games, which determined quite a bit playoff wise. The Houston Texans' win over the Los Angeles Chargers clinched a playoff berth for the Texans, and eliminated the Indianapolis Colts. It also won the AFC West for the Denver Broncos. The Baltimore Ravens aren't out of it yet either after their win over the Green Bay Packers. That victory handed the Chicago Bears the NFC North title.

The NFC playoff field is all set except for one slot: the NFC South champion, which is currently on pace to be the Carolina Panthers, but could still end up the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 1. Seattle Seahawks (12-3)*: Remaining schedule — at Carolina Panthers, at San Francisco 49ers Seahawks win + Rams loss or tie + 49ers-Bears tie Seahawks win + Rams loss or tie + 49ers loss or tie, OR The Rams, Seahawks, Eagles, 49ers, Bears and Broncos are already in the playoffs.

On Sunday night, the Patriots joined them with a win over the Ravens in M&T Bank Stadium. In the AFC, the Jaguars, Bills and Chargers can all secure an 18th game if the Colts lose on Monday night at home to the 49ers. Meanwhile, the NFC is more straightforward. The Eagles clinched the NFC East after a win over the Commanders on Saturday night. The Seahawks also clinched a spot after their epic victory over the Rams on Thursday night. The 49ers and Bears got into the playoffs after the Lions lost at home to the Steelers on Sunday.

With all that in mind, let’s look at how the playoff picture stands entering Week 16. Sign Up. SI NFL Newsletter. Get MMQB's Free Newsletter. dark Record: 12–3 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 100%

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