Mamdani Demographics Of The Future By M Dyson Medium

Authors: Alberto Medina, Sara Suzuki, Ruby Belle Booth Note: This analysis was updated on November 12 to reflect changes in exit poll data. Notably, we adjusted our estimate of youth voter turnout in the New York City mayoral race from 19% to 28%. In one of their first major opportunities to shape the political landscape since the last presidential election, young voters played a major role in three key 2025 elections in New York, New Jersey, and... In New York City, young voters (ages 18-29) provided Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani overwhelming support toward his historic victory. According to exit polls, 75% of youth voted for Mamdani, compared to 19% for former New York governor Andrew Cuomo and 5% for Republican Curtis Sliwa. Mamdani won the three-way race with 50% of the overall vote; young people were his strongest supporters out of all age groups.

According to CIRCLE estimates, also based on exit polls conducted by SSRS and Census population data, 28% of young eligible voters cast ballots in the New York City mayoral election. This is an estimate based on 93% of votes counted as of early afternoon on November 12 and reflecting updated exit poll data on the share of votes cast by youth. The estimate may still shift slightly once all votes are counted. The racial demographics of his winning coalition resembled President Trump’s from 2024. On Tuesday, 34-year-old democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani won New York City’s mayoralty, defeating former governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa by about nine and 43 percentage points, respectively. That outcome, more or less, was expected.

Since June’s Democratic primary, polls, including one published by the Manhattan Institute last week, had predicted victory for the Queens assemblyman. The election held a more surprising result: the racial demographics of Mamdani’s winning coalition resembled President Trump’s from 2024. This was key to his success and the product of a deliberate strategy to engage New York’s ethnic communities on a granular basis. According to a New York Times analysis, Mamdani won majority-black precincts by 26 percentage points, majority Hispanic by 20 percentage points, and majority Asian by 4 percentage points. This performance marks a significant improvement compared with the primary, in which he won majority-Hispanic precincts by 8 percentage points and actually lost majority-black precincts to Cuomo by 16 percentage points. Similarly, Trump owed his reelection last year in large part to historic gains among nonwhite Americans.

He almost doubled his support among black voters from 8 percent in 2020 to 15 percent in 2024 and effectively matched Kamala Harris among Hispanic voters, losing by only 3 percentage points. I want to start by issuing a mea culpa for my previous take that Zohran Mamdani was extremely unlikely to win the 2025 NYC Mayoral Democratic primary. I still stand by my view that Mamdani was a priori a poor choice to rally behind if your main goal was beating Cuomo, and that strategy is still very important in RCV elections,... So how did Mamdani pull it off? He created something the left has talked about for decades but has rarely, if ever, actually achieved: a massive youth surge in turnout. I’ll have more to write about regarding that youth turnout surge once the final voter file data is in, but for now here are four charts that show how Mamdani became the Democratic nominee...

You may remember Maya Wiley, left-wing New Yorkers’ standard-bearer four years ago who got 21.4% of the vote and ultimately came third in RCV. As expected, the vast majority of her voters flowed to Mamdani this time around, but what’s impressive is how he got a higher share of than vote than her in almost every part of... You can particularly see his surge in support in the heavily Asian & Hispanic parts of Queens and Brooklyn — these are two groups Wiley did very poorly with yet Mamdani may well have... (Here’s a bonus map my colleague iabvek made showing the estimated race/ethnicity of 2021 Democratic primary voters, which may be helpful for interpreting the above map) Of note are the few areas where Mamdani... Experts say Americans are looking for a generational change. Zohran Mamdani's historic election has sparked a lot of conversation about a changing of the guard not only for New York City, but also the entire country, as some experts told ABC News his...

Mamdani, a two-term state assemblyman who recently turned 34, campaigned with a progressive message that voters wanted a change from the status quo and that someone like him was attuned to the younger generation's... Grace Smoker, vice president of media strategy at Stu Loeser & Co, a New York- based political media consulting group, told ABC News that the mayor-elect will likely not be the only candidate under... "It's absolutely a nationwide movement," Smoker said. Authors: Alberto Medina, Sara Suzuki, Ruby Belle Booth Note: This analysis was updated on November 12 to reflect changes in exit poll data. Notably, we adjusted our estimate of youth voter turnout in the New York City mayoral race from 19% to 28%.

In one of their first major opportunities to shape the political landscape since the last presidential election, young voters played a major role in three key 2025 elections in New York, New Jersey, and... In New York City, young voters (ages 18-29) provided Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani overwhelming support toward his historic victory. According to exit polls, 75% of youth voted for Mamdani, compared to 19% for former New York governor Andrew Cuomo and 5% for Republican Curtis Sliwa. Mamdani won the three-way race with 50% of the overall vote; young people were his strongest supporters out of all age groups. According to CIRCLE estimates, also based on exit polls conducted by SSRS and Census population data, 28% of young eligible voters cast ballots in the New York City mayoral election. This is an estimate based on 93% of votes counted as of early afternoon on November 12 and reflecting updated exit poll data on the share of votes cast by youth.

The estimate may still shift slightly once all votes are counted. New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani drew votes from a diverse coalition of voters in the nation’s largest city. His voter base took strong roots in Brooklyn neighborhoods chock-full of young, diverse people. These voters drove him to victory by coming out in droves. Nevertheless, he credited mostly blue-collar working people. In his victory speech, he praised a number of diverse groups, including families and working people, whom he felt had been forgotten by the city.

“We will fight for you because we are you,” he said. “Thank you to those so often forgotten by the politics of our city, who made this movement their own. I speak of Yemeni bodega owners and Mexican abuelas. Senegalese taxi drivers and Uzbek nurses. Trinidadian line cooks and Ethiopian aunties.” He also credited those with the characteristic scars of working people.

“Fingers bruised from lifting boxes on the warehouse floor, palms calloused from delivery bike handlebars, knuckles scarred with kitchen burns … you have dared to reach for something greater,” he said. Although Zohran Mamdani’s platform may not represent the preferences of most New Yorkers, winning a majority of the votes is not necessary. Both long-term demographic and voting trends suggest that his election is certainly possible. Based on the past, only about a quarter of registered voters are likely to turn out and Mamdani is focusing on the affordability concerns of key groups — recent immigrants, non-white and low income... Thanks for reading Maverick Chronicles with Greg Guma! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

When I grew up in New York more than 60 years ago, it was a predominantly white city. That is no longer the case. Beyond the changing racial make up of the city, there has been an upsurge in recent immigrants. These factors and others suggest that Mamdani could win with about 15% of the total potential votes in a four-way race— less than 700,000 out of a possible 1.3 million voters who actually show... He already has more than half a million likely supporters. Although he calls himself a socialist, a label likely to be exploited by the other candidates and stressed by media outlets, he is effectively speaking to and for a highly motivated minority that doesn’t...

The attention currently given to voter suppression and redistricting efforts around the country tends to obscure a deeper, more serious problem with voting in the US: voter turnout — in all but certain presidential... The long-term risk is that popular consent to the policies that any elected official attempts may be withdrawn. This suggests that, if he is elected, Mamdani’s efforts to implement policies like changing the functions of the police or creating municipally owned supermarkets may be treated as power grabs that residents and special... By now you’ve probably heard: Zohran Mamdani won the New York City mayoral race. That’s right, the 34-year-old Ugandan-born, Muslim socialist who promised free buses, city-run grocery stores, and an army of social workers to replace police is now mayor of America’s largest city. I wrote about Mamdani a week ago—about how his victory was baked into the cake.

About his talent for politics, his charisma, his potential to become the Left’s next Obama—and what that spells for America. Spoiler alert if you haven’t read the piece: nothing good. One thing I didn’t get into in that first essay was demographics. It was too early for that then—but now that the election’s behind us, we can. Because as the saying goes, demographics is destiny, and New York’s mayoral election might be the clearest case study in that truth for the rest of America. What stands out about Mamdani’s win is how openly demographic it was.

He built a coalition of immigrant groups and rode the city’s shifting population to power. His acceptance speech made that clear—he went on a tirade thanking those “who made this movement their own”: It looks like the number of Muslims in the Big Apple could exceed the number of Jews. Does Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani’s rise in the polls reflect New York City’s surging Muslim population? The question transcends the mayoral race, says Ira Stoll in “The Editors” substack, citing “evidence that America’s largest city matches the global trend of Islam gaining ground owing in part to birth rates and... Mamdani’s candidacy “a watershed moment for Muslim New Yorkers,” noting that 1 million Muslims live here.

If that number is correct — Mr. Stoll reports that there is some reason to be skeptical — it means that the number of Muslim New Yorkers could now exceed the city’s Jewish population. That amounts to a demographic shift, and a largely under-reported one, with significant implications for the future of the city. The nation, too, considering New York’s importance in national industries like finance, publishing, broadcasting, and the press. Mr. Stoll points to an estimate by a Muslim group, Emgage, claiming that the city has “around one million Muslims.” In February, Mayor Eric Adams’s office reported that “one in nine New Yorkers” is Muslim,...

That figure is on the rise. Yet while 2 million Jews lived here in the 1950s, a Jewish charity, the UJA-Federation of New York, estimated there were but 960,000 Jews here in 2023, Mr. Stoll reports. Mr. Mamdani’s ascent, in Mr. Stoll’s telling, amounts to “a demographic race with political implications.” The Times says “more than 350,000 Muslim New Yorkers are registered to vote,” citing the Council of American-Islamic Relations, though “only about 12 percent...

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