University of Kwazulu-Natal

Is The Quantum Computing Bubble About To Burst

Bonisiwe Shabane
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is the quantum computing bubble about to burst

IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing have reached valuation levels well beyond those seen during prior stock market bubbles. Each of these companies has recently raised capital through a series of equity offerings and stock issuances. These moves could suggest that the valuation levels for these businesses are not only abnormally high, but unsustainable. Last summer, companies such as IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI), D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS), and Quantum Computing (NASDAQ: QUBT) were unknown penny stocks. However, as quantum computing steadily made its way toward center stage in the artificial intelligence (AI) realm, each of these companies witnessed meteoric rises in their share prices. Over the last 12 months, IonQ stock has blasted higher by 517%, while Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing have experienced surges of at least 1,500% as of this writing (July 21).

Quantum computing has moved from research labs to surging stock valuations and massive investment flows, with some firms posting gains of hundreds of percentage points. While breakthroughs in hardware, funding, and interest from major tech players fuel optimism, many quantum firms still lack consistent commercial revenue and remain speculative. As the hype builds, 2026 could mark a moment of reckoning, where only firms with real technology and business models survive, and others risk dramatic corrections. Artificial Intelligence has dominated the technology landscape and reshaped industries. While AI continues to grow, investors and innovators are already searching for the next breakthrough. All eyes are turning to the next big leap in computational power, which is quantum computing.

This excitement has pushed quantum startups into the spotlight, with valuations soaring and market expectations rising even faster. It has shifted from a niche area to one of the most hyped and heavily funded domains in modern technology. The key question becomes: Will quantum computing deliver breakthroughs or a sharp market correction? The massive intersection of Janes Avenue and East Boughton Road in Bolingbrook, Illinois, looks like many other crossroads in suburban America. A drive-through Starbucks keeps watch over 15 lanes of turning and merging mid-size SUVs, most headed for the sprawling parking lots of the Promenade shopping mall to the south, a few others en route... Few of the people in the SUVs realize they’re driving over part of America’s blossoming research into quantum information technology.

Beneath the interstate, entangled photons—quantum particles moving at the speed of light—are teleporting to and from the Argonne National Laboratory in the next town over, through repurposed fiber-optic cables that make up one of... Researchers hope to use the 52-mile quantum test site in Bolingbrook and others like it to prove that you can trap information inside a quantum state of matter (like a photon) in one location,... They need to factor in the challenges of frozen ground, the sun’s radiation, and vibrations from all those vehicles traveling overhead, but if they can prove it, they’ll have invented a way of communicating... Researchers at other laboratories are simultaneously trying to feed algorithms into similar elementary states of matter, known as quantum bits, and have them come out transformed correctly at the end of the computation. If that’s successful, they’ll have an entirely new type of computer on their hands. It’s been clear to physicists for years that the long-established principles of quantum mechanics can revolutionize computing and the internet.

If quantum bits can be tamed, they could run algorithms in just a few seconds that would otherwise take years to complete. Stable photons could transfer information across the world instantly in a way that likely could never be hacked while in transit, since any disturbance would destroy the information. To the rest of us, the quantum revolution might seem as if it has just transformed from a sleepy scientific theory into the sharpest of bleeding edges. It’s even possible that we’re currently experiencing something of a quantum bubble—and that it might be about to burst. In 2017, most of the quantum test loops were just dormant fiber-optic cables, and no one had been able to get quantum bits to reliably process information in the same way classical computers can. Now, there are more than a dozen functioning quantum computers around the world, a few of which any software developer can access via familiar services: say, an Amazon Web Services account.

The explosive rise of artificial intelligence has fuelled a global investment frenzy, and the warnings about an overheated market are getting louder. Economists, central banks and major tech leaders have already voiced concerns about excessive valuations across the AI sector. Now a striking new claim has entered the debate. Former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger says quantum computing will arrive faster than expected and ultimately render today's GPU-driven AI systems obsolete. The broader economic context has already raised questions about the durability of the current AI boom. A detailed analysis from The Guardian compared today's AI mania to past speculative bubbles, highlighting the speed at which money has flooded into models, chips and data-centre infrastructure.

Nvidia's valuation more than doubled within months, much of it built on expectations rather than concrete long-term revenue. Several analysts remain concerned that companies are financing the AI race with increasing levels of debt. Big Tech firms have collectively raised nearly $250 billion (approximately £188 billion) this year to expand their AI footprints. Economists warn that if spending slows or expected breakthroughs fail to materialise, the financial consequences could ripple through global markets. Into this uncertain moment arrived Pat Gelsinger's bold prediction. In a recent interview cited by Wccftech, the former Intel executive said quantum computers will reach mainstream adoption much faster than many expect.

He called quantum tech one of the three essential pillars of computing and insisted it will surpass both classical processors and AI-optimised hardware.

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