University of Kwazulu-Natal

Ibm Roadmap To A 2029 Large Scale Fault Tolerant Quantum Computer

Bonisiwe Shabane
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ibm roadmap to a 2029 large scale fault tolerant quantum computer

With two new research papers and an updated quantum roadmap, IBM® lays out a clear, rigorous, comprehensive framework for realizing a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029. IBM has the most viable path to realize fault-tolerant quantum computing. By 2029, we will deliver IBM Quantum Starling — a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer capable of running quantum circuits comprising 100 million quantum gates on 200 logical qubits. We are building this system at our historic facility in Poughkeepsie, New York. Watch our new video, 'Realizing large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computing,' on YouTube. In a new paper, now available on the arXiv1, we detail a rigorous end-to-end framework for a fault-tolerant quantum computer that is modular and based on the bivariate bicycle codes we introduced with our...

Additionally, we’re releasing a second paper3 that details the first-ever accurate, fast, compact, and flexible error correction decoder — one that is amenable to efficient implementation on FPGAs or ASICs for real-time decoding. We’ve updated our roadmap to match, with new processors and capabilities that will pave the way to quantum advantage, Starling, and fault tolerance. Watch the 2025 IBM Quantum Roadmap update on YouTube. IBM has just made a major announcement about its plans to achieve large-scale quantum fault tolerance before the end of this decade. Based on the company’s new quantum roadmap, by 2029 IBM expects to be able to run accurate quantum circuits with hundreds of logical qubits and hundreds of millions of gate operations. If all goes according to plan, this stands to be an accomplishment with sweeping effects across the quantum market — and potentially for computing as a whole.

In advance of this announcement, I received a private briefing from IBM and engaged in detailed correspondence with some of its quantum researchers for more context. (Note: IBM is an advisory client of my firm, Moor Insights & Strategy.) The release of the new roadmap offers a good opportunity to review what IBM has already accomplished in quantum, how it... First, we need some background on why fault tolerance is so important. Today’s quantum computers have the potential, but not yet the broader capability, to solve complex problems beyond the reach of our most powerful classical supercomputers. The current generation of quantum computers are fundamentally limited by high error rates that are difficult to correct and that prevent complex quantum algorithms from running at scale. While there are numerous challenges being tackled by quantum researchers around the world, there is broad agreement that these error rates are a major hurdle to be cleared.

In this context, it is important to understand the difference between fault tolerance and quantum error correction. QEC uses specialized measurements to detect errors in encoded qubits. And although it is also a core mechanism used in fault tolerance, QEC alone can only go so far. Without fault-tolerant circuit designs in place, errors that occur during operations or even in the correction process can spread and accumulate, making it exponentially more difficult for QEC on its own to maintain logical... Reaching well beyond QEC, fault-tolerant quantum computing is a very large and complex engineering challenge that applies a broad approach to errors. FTQC not only protects individual computational qubits from errors, but also systemically prevents errors from spreading.

It achieves this by employing clever fault-tolerant circuit designs, and by making use of a system’s noise threshold — that is, the maximum level of errors the system can handle and still function correctly. Achieving the reliability of FTQC also requires more qubits. June 10 2025 IBM made a landmark announcement outlining a clear path to build the world’s first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer by the year 2029. Codenamed IBM Quantum “Starling,” this planned system will leverage a new scalable architecture to achieve on the order of 200 logical (error-corrected) qubits capable of executing 100 million quantum gates in a single computation. IBM’s quantum leaders described this as “cracking the code to quantum error correction” – a breakthrough turning the long-held dream of useful quantum computing from fragile theory into an engineering reality. IBM used the occasion of quantum computing roadmap update to declare that it now has “the most viable path to realize fault-tolerant quantum computing” and is confident it will deliver a useful, large-scale quantum...

The centerpiece of this plan is IBM Quantum Starling, a new processor and system architecture that IBM says will be constructed at its Poughkeepsie, NY facility – a site steeped in IBM computing history. Starling is slated to feature about 200 logical qubits (quantum bits protected by error correction) spread across a modular multi-chip system, rather than a single huge chip. According to IBM, Starling will be capable of running quantum circuits with 100 million quantum gate operations on those logical qubits. For context, that is orders of magnitude beyond what today’s noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) processors can reliably do. IBM emphasizes that achieving this will mark the first practical, error-corrected quantum computer – a machine able to tackle real-world problems beyond the reach of classical supercomputers, thanks to its scale and reliability. A core theme of IBM’s announcement is the transition from today’s “fragile, monolithic” chip designs toward modular, scalable, error-corrected systems.

Up to now, IBM (and most industry players) built quantum processors on single chips with qubits laid out in a planar array (IBM’s 127-qubit Eagle and 433-qubit Osprey chips are examples). These monolithic chips are limited in size and are not error-corrected – more qubits tend to introduce more noise. IBM’s new approach with Starling is modular quantum hardware: multiple smaller chips or modules will be interconnected via quantum links, allowing qubits in different modules to interact as if on one chip. IBM previewed this modular design with its IBM Quantum System Two infrastructure and experiments like the “Flamingo” coupler that demonstrated microwave links between chips. By distributing qubits across replaceable modules connected quantumly, IBM can scale to much larger qubit counts than a single chip can support. Crucially, this modularity is paired with long-range entanglement – qubits on different chips can be entangled through couplers, overcoming the short-range connectivity limitations of a 2D chip lattice.

IBM’s 2025 roadmap calls for a stepwise implementation of this modular architecture: for example, IBM Quantum “Loon” (expected in 2025) will test the new inter-chip couplers and other components, followed by Kookaburra (2026) to... All these lead up to Starling as the first full-scale fault-tolerant system in 2028–2029. In short, IBM is moving from building bigger single chips to building better systems of chips – a modular quantum compute unit that can be expanded piece by piece. Perhaps the most significant technical breakthrough underpinning IBM’s plan is its quantum error correction (QEC) scheme. Rather than the well-known “surface codes” used by others (which arrange qubits in a 2D grid with local redundancy), IBM is betting on quantum low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes – specifically a family of codes... In simple terms, QEC works by encoding one “logical” qubit of information into many physical qubits, so that if some of the physical qubits get corrupted by noise, the logical information can still be...

Surface codes typically might need on the order of ~1,000 physical qubits to encode 1 logical qubit at an error rate suitable for large algorithms. IBM’s new LDPC-based code is far more resource-efficient: for example, one instance encodes 12 logical qubits in 288 physical qubits (a [[144,12,12]] code), achieving the same error suppression as surface code but with an... This is a game-changer for scalability – it means far fewer physical qubits are required to achieve a given computing capability. IBM’s Vice President of Quantum, Dr. Jay Gambetta, boldly stated, “We’ve cracked the code to quantum error correction”, describing the new architecture as “an order of magnitude or more more efficient” than surface-code-based approaches. By combining these LDPC codes with the modular hardware (which provides the long-range connectivity the codes require), IBM’s “bicycle architecture” can create logical qubits that are robust against errors without impractical overhead.

The bottom line: IBM’s Starling will use error-corrected logical qubits from day one, not just raw physical qubits. IBM believes this development cracks the last big scientific hurdle and that nothing fundamentally unknown remains – it’s now a matter of engineering scale and integrating the system. Overall, IBM’s June 2025 news marks a pivot point in quantum computing. The company has publicly committed to a deadline – a 200-logical-qubit fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029 – and backed it up with a detailed roadmap of intermediate milestones and a stack of research results... They are moving beyond incremental qubit count increases toward a full stack redesign: new codes, new chips, new interconnects, new cryogenic infrastructure, and co-designed software (IBM’s updated Qiskit Runtime and error mitigation tools were... This cohesive effort has led analysts to note that IBM appears to have “solved the scientific obstacles to error correction” and now holds “the only realistic path” toward building such a machine on the...

In the next section, we’ll analyze what this breakthrough means for the wider industry and, critically, for cybersecurity experts who worry about quantum threats to encryption. Delivered by 2029, IBM Quantum Starling will be built in a new IBM Quantum Data Center in Poughkeepsie, New York and is expected to perform 20,000 times more operations than today’s quantum computers. Starling will be able to access the computational power required for these problems by running 100 million quantum operations using 200 logical qubits. It will be the foundation for IBM Quantum Blue Jay, which will be capable of executing 1 billion quantum operations over 2,000 logical qubits. The new IBM Quantum Roadmap outlines the key technology milestones that will demonstrate and execute the criteria for fault tolerance. Each new processor in the roadmap addresses specific challenges to build quantum computers that are modular, scalable, and error-corrected:

IBM Quantum Loon, expected in 2025, is designed to test architecture components for the qLDPC code, including “C-couplers” that connect qubits over longer distances within the same chip. IBM Quantum Kookaburra, expected in 2026, will be IBM’s first modular processor designed to store and process encoded information. It will combine quantum memory with logic operations — the basic building block for scaling fault-tolerant systems beyond a single chip. IBM on Tuesday announced a roadmap to develop a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer called Quantum Starling. Part of the company's plan involves the new IBM Quantum Nighthawk processor, which is set to release later this year, according to a blog post announcing the details. "Unlocking the full promise of quantum computing will require a device capable of running larger, deeper circuits with hundreds of millions of gates operating on hundreds of qubits, at least," the company said in...

"More than that, it will require a device capable of correcting errors and preventing them from spreading throughout the system. … It will require a fault-tolerant quantum computer." Fault tolerance refers to the system's ability to correct and deal with errors. The quantum race accelerated this year after Google announced its breakthrough quantum chip "Willow" in December. Microsoft rolled out its first quantum chip Majorana 1 in February, and Amazon followed a week later with its "Ocelot" chip. IBM announced an ambitious roadmap for quantum computing, aiming to deliver the IBM Quantum Starling, a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer, by 2029.

Key focuses include modular processor design, error correction, and scalable communication networks. The plans also extend to quantum-centric supercomputers by 2033, promoting practical applications across various industries. Quantum computing promises to revolutionize industries by solving complex problems beyond the reach of classical computers. IBM, a pioneer in quantum research, recently announced an ambitious roadmap to deliver the world’s first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer, named IBM Quantum Starling, by 2029, with plans for quantum-centric supercomputers by 2033. On June 10, 2025, IBM unveiled a comprehensive quantum computing roadmap aimed at achieving a practical, large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029. The announcement, detailed across various sources, outlines a full-stack strategy centered on three key pillars: modular processor design, real-time decoding for fault tolerance, and scalable quantum communication networks.

The system, dubbed IBM Quantum Starling, is set to be developed at IBM’s quantum data center in New York, marking a significant milestone in the company’s quantum ambitions. IBM’s press release emphasizes incremental advancements leading to 2029. Unlike previous roadmaps that focused on qubit count milestones—such as the 1,000+ qubit chip unveiled in 2023—the new strategy prioritizes fault tolerance and scalability to achieve practical quantum computing applications. The roadmap also includes plans for quantum-centric supercomputers by 2033, capable of running 1 billion quantum gates with thousands of qubits, unlocking the full potential of quantum computing for real-world use cases like drug... “Our roadmap to 2029 is a clear path to fault-tolerant quantum computing. By focusing on modularity, error correction, and scalable networks, we’re building a system that will deliver real value to industries and academia.” Dr.

Jay Gambetta, IBM’s Vice President of Quantum ComputingSource: IBM Press Release, June 2025 (paraphrased from roadmap announcement). IBM revealed Tuesday its roadmap for bringing a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer, IBM Quantum Starling, online by 2029, which is significantly earlier than many technologists thought possible. The company predicts that when its new Starling computer is up and running, it will be capable of performing 20,000 times more operations than today’s quantum computers — a computational state so vast it... “IBM is charting the next frontier in quantum computing,” Big Blue CEO Arvind Krishna said in a statement. “Our expertise across mathematics, physics, and engineering is paving the way for a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer — one that will solve real-world challenges and unlock immense possibilities for business.” IBM’s plan to deliver a fault-tolerant quantum system by 2029 is ambitious but not implausible, especially given the rapid pace of its quantum roadmap and past milestones, observed Ensar Seker, CISO at SOCRadar, a...

“They’ve consistently met or exceeded their qubit scaling goals, and their emphasis on modularity and error correction indicates they’re tackling the right challenges,” he told TechNewsWorld. “However, moving from thousands to millions of physical qubits with sufficient fidelity remains a steep climb.” IBM Corp. today revealed its expected roadmap for building the world’s first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer, which would enable scaling up quantum computing for real-world practical results. The technology giant said it expects to be able to deliver the platform in 2029. The new computing system, dubbed IBM Quantum Starling, will be built at the company’s campus in Poughkeepsie, New York, and is expected to perform 20,000 times more operations than today’s quantum computers.

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With two new research papers and an updated quantum roadmap, IBM® lays out a clear, rigorous, comprehensive framework for realizing a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029. IBM has the most viable path to realize fault-tolerant quantum computing. By 2029, we will deliver IBM Quantum Starling — a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer capable of running quantum circuits compris...

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Additionally, we’re releasing a second paper3 that details the first-ever accurate, fast, compact, and flexible error correction decoder — one that is amenable to efficient implementation on FPGAs or ASICs for real-time decoding. We’ve updated our roadmap to match, with new processors and capabilities that will pave the way to quantum advantage, Starling, and fault tolerance. Watch the 2025 IBM Qu...

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It achieves this by employing clever fault-tolerant circuit designs, and by making use of a system’s noise threshold — that is, the maximum level of errors the system can handle and still function correctly. Achieving the reliability of FTQC also requires more qubits. June 10 2025 IBM made a landmark announcement outlining a clear path to build the world’s first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum...