University of Kwazulu-Natal

Ibm More Certain Of Fault Tolerant Quantum Computing By 2029

Bonisiwe Shabane
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ibm more certain of fault tolerant quantum computing by 2029

With two new research papers and an updated quantum roadmap, IBM® lays out a clear, rigorous, comprehensive framework for realizing a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029. IBM has the most viable path to realize fault-tolerant quantum computing. By 2029, we will deliver IBM Quantum Starling — a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer capable of running quantum circuits comprising 100 million quantum gates on 200 logical qubits. We are building this system at our historic facility in Poughkeepsie, New York. Watch our new video, 'Realizing large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computing,' on YouTube. In a new paper, now available on the arXiv1, we detail a rigorous end-to-end framework for a fault-tolerant quantum computer that is modular and based on the bivariate bicycle codes we introduced with our...

Additionally, we’re releasing a second paper3 that details the first-ever accurate, fast, compact, and flexible error correction decoder — one that is amenable to efficient implementation on FPGAs or ASICs for real-time decoding. We’ve updated our roadmap to match, with new processors and capabilities that will pave the way to quantum advantage, Starling, and fault tolerance. Watch the 2025 IBM Quantum Roadmap update on YouTube. The quantum computer, called Starling, will use 200 logical qubits — and IBM plans to follow this up with a 2,000-logical-qubit machine in 2033 When you purchase through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. Here’s how it works.

IBM scientists say they have solved the biggest bottleneck in quantum computing and plan to launch the world's first large-scale, fault-tolerant machine by 2029. The new research demonstrates new error-correction techniques that the scientists say will lead to a system 20,000 times more powerful than any quantum computer in existence today. In two new studies uploaded June 2 and June 3 to the preprint arXiv server, the researchers revealed new error mitigation and correction techniques that sufficiently handle these errors and allow for the scaling... IBM announced plans for its IBM Quantum Starling, a fault-tolerant quantum computer, that brings quantum computing a step closer in a market that has long promised revolutionary capabilities while delivering laboratory curiosities. Starling is a significant shift from experimental technology towards enterprise-ready infrastructure. The world's first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer, expected by 2029, will finally bridge the gap between quantum potential and business reality.

Today's most pressing business challenges push classical computing to its limits. Drug discovery timelines span decades, supply chain optimization extends across global networks, and financial risk modeling must navigate volatile markets. McKinsey estimates that quantum computing could create $1.3 trillion in value by 2035, yet current quantum systems remain too error-prone for meaningful business applications. The challenge is that existing quantum computers can only execute a few thousand operations before errors accumulate and corrupt results, making them unsuitable for many of the most complex algorithms that drive real business... June 10 2025 IBM made a landmark announcement outlining a clear path to build the world’s first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer by the year 2029. Codenamed IBM Quantum “Starling,” this planned system will leverage a new scalable architecture to achieve on the order of 200 logical (error-corrected) qubits capable of executing 100 million quantum gates in a single computation.

IBM’s quantum leaders described this as “cracking the code to quantum error correction” – a breakthrough turning the long-held dream of useful quantum computing from fragile theory into an engineering reality. IBM used the occasion of quantum computing roadmap update to declare that it now has “the most viable path to realize fault-tolerant quantum computing” and is confident it will deliver a useful, large-scale quantum... The centerpiece of this plan is IBM Quantum Starling, a new processor and system architecture that IBM says will be constructed at its Poughkeepsie, NY facility – a site steeped in IBM computing history. Starling is slated to feature about 200 logical qubits (quantum bits protected by error correction) spread across a modular multi-chip system, rather than a single huge chip. According to IBM, Starling will be capable of running quantum circuits with 100 million quantum gate operations on those logical qubits. For context, that is orders of magnitude beyond what today’s noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) processors can reliably do.

IBM emphasizes that achieving this will mark the first practical, error-corrected quantum computer – a machine able to tackle real-world problems beyond the reach of classical supercomputers, thanks to its scale and reliability. A core theme of IBM’s announcement is the transition from today’s “fragile, monolithic” chip designs toward modular, scalable, error-corrected systems. Up to now, IBM (and most industry players) built quantum processors on single chips with qubits laid out in a planar array (IBM’s 127-qubit Eagle and 433-qubit Osprey chips are examples). These monolithic chips are limited in size and are not error-corrected – more qubits tend to introduce more noise. IBM’s new approach with Starling is modular quantum hardware: multiple smaller chips or modules will be interconnected via quantum links, allowing qubits in different modules to interact as if on one chip. IBM previewed this modular design with its IBM Quantum System Two infrastructure and experiments like the “Flamingo” coupler that demonstrated microwave links between chips.

By distributing qubits across replaceable modules connected quantumly, IBM can scale to much larger qubit counts than a single chip can support. Crucially, this modularity is paired with long-range entanglement – qubits on different chips can be entangled through couplers, overcoming the short-range connectivity limitations of a 2D chip lattice. IBM’s 2025 roadmap calls for a stepwise implementation of this modular architecture: for example, IBM Quantum “Loon” (expected in 2025) will test the new inter-chip couplers and other components, followed by Kookaburra (2026) to... All these lead up to Starling as the first full-scale fault-tolerant system in 2028–2029. In short, IBM is moving from building bigger single chips to building better systems of chips – a modular quantum compute unit that can be expanded piece by piece. Perhaps the most significant technical breakthrough underpinning IBM’s plan is its quantum error correction (QEC) scheme.

Rather than the well-known “surface codes” used by others (which arrange qubits in a 2D grid with local redundancy), IBM is betting on quantum low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes – specifically a family of codes... In simple terms, QEC works by encoding one “logical” qubit of information into many physical qubits, so that if some of the physical qubits get corrupted by noise, the logical information can still be... Surface codes typically might need on the order of ~1,000 physical qubits to encode 1 logical qubit at an error rate suitable for large algorithms. IBM’s new LDPC-based code is far more resource-efficient: for example, one instance encodes 12 logical qubits in 288 physical qubits (a [[144,12,12]] code), achieving the same error suppression as surface code but with an... This is a game-changer for scalability – it means far fewer physical qubits are required to achieve a given computing capability. IBM’s Vice President of Quantum, Dr.

Jay Gambetta, boldly stated, “We’ve cracked the code to quantum error correction”, describing the new architecture as “an order of magnitude or more more efficient” than surface-code-based approaches. By combining these LDPC codes with the modular hardware (which provides the long-range connectivity the codes require), IBM’s “bicycle architecture” can create logical qubits that are robust against errors without impractical overhead. The bottom line: IBM’s Starling will use error-corrected logical qubits from day one, not just raw physical qubits. IBM believes this development cracks the last big scientific hurdle and that nothing fundamentally unknown remains – it’s now a matter of engineering scale and integrating the system. Overall, IBM’s June 2025 news marks a pivot point in quantum computing. The company has publicly committed to a deadline – a 200-logical-qubit fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029 – and backed it up with a detailed roadmap of intermediate milestones and a stack of research results...

They are moving beyond incremental qubit count increases toward a full stack redesign: new codes, new chips, new interconnects, new cryogenic infrastructure, and co-designed software (IBM’s updated Qiskit Runtime and error mitigation tools were... This cohesive effort has led analysts to note that IBM appears to have “solved the scientific obstacles to error correction” and now holds “the only realistic path” toward building such a machine on the... In the next section, we’ll analyze what this breakthrough means for the wider industry and, critically, for cybersecurity experts who worry about quantum threats to encryption. IBM announced an ambitious roadmap for quantum computing, aiming to deliver the IBM Quantum Starling, a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer, by 2029. Key focuses include modular processor design, error correction, and scalable communication networks. The plans also extend to quantum-centric supercomputers by 2033, promoting practical applications across various industries.

Quantum computing promises to revolutionize industries by solving complex problems beyond the reach of classical computers. IBM, a pioneer in quantum research, recently announced an ambitious roadmap to deliver the world’s first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer, named IBM Quantum Starling, by 2029, with plans for quantum-centric supercomputers by 2033. On June 10, 2025, IBM unveiled a comprehensive quantum computing roadmap aimed at achieving a practical, large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029. The announcement, detailed across various sources, outlines a full-stack strategy centered on three key pillars: modular processor design, real-time decoding for fault tolerance, and scalable quantum communication networks. The system, dubbed IBM Quantum Starling, is set to be developed at IBM’s quantum data center in New York, marking a significant milestone in the company’s quantum ambitions. IBM’s press release emphasizes incremental advancements leading to 2029.

Unlike previous roadmaps that focused on qubit count milestones—such as the 1,000+ qubit chip unveiled in 2023—the new strategy prioritizes fault tolerance and scalability to achieve practical quantum computing applications. The roadmap also includes plans for quantum-centric supercomputers by 2033, capable of running 1 billion quantum gates with thousands of qubits, unlocking the full potential of quantum computing for real-world use cases like drug... “Our roadmap to 2029 is a clear path to fault-tolerant quantum computing. By focusing on modularity, error correction, and scalable networks, we’re building a system that will deliver real value to industries and academia.” Dr. Jay Gambetta, IBM’s Vice President of Quantum ComputingSource: IBM Press Release, June 2025 (paraphrased from roadmap announcement). Quantum computing once lived in physics labs and glossy slide decks.

Now IBM’s public roadmap pledges a fault-tolerant machine able to run 100 million error-corrected gates on 200 logical qubits by 2029, with “quantum advantage” arriving three years earlier. Reach even half that goal and encryption, blockchain economics and R&D calendars change overnight. Progress already shows. The Heron 156-qubit processor cut gate errors five-fold, and a System Two installation now runs in Kobe beside the Fugaku supercomputer. The conversation has shifted from “if” to “when,” and the fallout shows. Why does the timeline matter?

Security chiefs fear “Q-Day,” investors hunt upside in drug discovery and logistics, and governments wonder whether quantum hardware will become the strategic leverage oil once was. The stakes of this issue justify close scrutiny here. IBM divides its sprint into four stages, one of which is already complete: 2024 – Deliver Heron: IBM completed the first stage with the launch of the Heron processor, marking a key hardware milestone. IBM this week reiterated that it plans to have a “fault-tolerant” quantum computer ready by 2029. Though the statement was in line with IBM’s previously-stated quantum computing roadmap expectation for achieving error correction in a quantum computer, company officials said they have “de-risked” their path to this achievement, giving them...

The planned system, called IBM Quantum Starling, will be built in a new IBM Quantum Data Center in Poughkeepsie, New York. It is expected to be capable of running 100 million quantum operations using 200 logical qubits, equating to about 20,000 times more operations than today’s quantum computers, according to. The error correction methods IBM is using could require up to 2,000 physical qubits to achieve that many logical qubits, so the company still has a long way to go. But Jay Gambetta, IBM Fellow and vice president of IBM Quantum, said in a briefing that his team’s recent engineering studies have lit the path to show how IBM will get there, and that... “I would not call this an acceleration of our roadmap, but we have de-risked the problems we faced to get there,” he said. Matthias Steffen, IBM Fellow, Quantum Processor Technology, added that IBM’s studies, including two papers just released, help demonstrate “the essential criteria for a large-scale error correction approach,” including:

By those measures, IBM thinks and claims it will have the first large quantum computing system with error correction, though many other companies are pursuing that goal at the same time, each back by... IBM Corp. today revealed its expected roadmap for building the world’s first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer, which would enable scaling up quantum computing for real-world practical results. The technology giant said it expects to be able to deliver the platform in 2029. The new computing system, dubbed IBM Quantum Starling, will be built at the company’s campus in Poughkeepsie, New York, and is expected to perform 20,000 times more operations than today’s quantum computers. According to the company, this new platform would require the memory of more than a quindecillion of the world’s most powerful supercomputers, that’s a number equal to a 1 with 48 zeros after it.

“IBM is charting the next frontier in quantum computing,” said Chief Executive Arvind Krishna. “Our expertise across mathematics, physics, and engineering is paving the way for a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer — one that will solve real-world challenges and unlock immense possibilities for business.” Problems that can take a classical computer months or years to solve, a quantum computer can solve in minutes. That makes them ideal for working on problems such as drug discovery, genetics, and materials science. Quantum processors use qubits, or quantum bits, a fundamental unit of information similar to a bit in classical computing.

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