Hype Vs Reality How Close Are We To Commercial Quantum Computing

The quantum technology market has been making waves recently, fuelled by a surge in investment and public attention. Companies such as D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, and IONQ have seen their share prices climb sharply, reflecting growing investor enthusiasm. This renewed interest isn’t without reason. UK-based Quantum Motion recently announced the first quantum computer made with silicon chips — a significant step forward, as scalability remains one of the biggest hurdles for quantum technologies to overcome before they become... Earlier this year, in February, it was also announced that scientists at Oxford University had successfully linked two quantum processors using light photons. This breakthrough means multiple smaller systems can now work together in a modular fashion.

Traditionally, adding more qubits to a system increased the chance of errors, but by connecting smaller modules instead, researchers hope to scale up while keeping error rates low. The EU has also recognised quantum’s potential, launching the Quantum Europe Strategy in 2025. This initiative focuses on supporting R&D, building infrastructure, investing in quantum ventures, and boosting quantum education — all with the goal of making Europe a quantum powerhouse by 2030. Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s announcement of a $10 billion investment across 27 industries — including quantum computing — has sent a clear signal to the market: quantum is gradually shifting from experimental science to a technology... I’ve sat through a lot of quantum computing briefings over the past five years. Vendor pitches.

Research updates. Board presentations. They all share a common feature, and that is that nobody wants to say the obvious thing out loud. We may be preparing for a revolution that never comes. A growing body of serious research suggests that commercially viable, large-scale quantum computing may remain permanently out of reach, at least in the form we’ve been planning for. This is coming from credible research groups, and it’s becoming harder to ignore.

No physical law forbids scalable quantum computation; but, theory and commerce are different disciplines, and the gap between them keeps widening. Here’s what I think is worth understanding more deeply. The meaningful progress in quantum computing over the past few years has come from improvements in error handling vs. algorithms and outcomes. Early machines demonstrated control but not scalability as noise increased faster than capability. Every qubit added made the system worse in terms of stability and overall performance.

A series of significant developments in quantum computing, such as error correction, are boosting enthusiasm among investors and Big Tech companies that the technology will be commercially available relatively soon. An expert notes that while technical challenges remain and road maps are uncertain, companies in sectors that could benefit most from quantum are already experimenting with the technology and seeing near-term gains. The recent spate of news in the quantum computing space is raising hopes that we’re finally on the cusp of broad commercial availability of this game-changing technology. Microsoft, Amazon Web Services (AWS), and Google have unveiled chips billed as major advances, while scientific journals have reported some impressive results relevant to commercial applications. To put these advances in context, we talked to Francesco Bova, an associate professor at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management, chief quantum economist at its Creative Destruction Lab, and economist in... The three tech giants’ new chips all tackle the problem of error correction — “one of the real challenges to scaling a quantum computer,” Bova said.

Quantum computers are very sensitive to their environment, and it’s difficult to mitigate the resulting errors. <img decoding="async" src="https://sloanreview.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/SU25_Radar.png" alt="Quantum Venture Funding Jumped Chart through 2024"> Imagine a computer that could solve incredibly complex problems at a speed we can't yet fathom and bring about breakthroughs in fields like drug development or clean energy. That is widely considered the promise of quantum computing. In 2025, tech companies poured money into this field. The Trump administration also named quantum computing as a priority.

But when will this technology actually deliver something useful for regular people? NPR's Katia Riddle reports on the difference between quantum hype and quantum reality. KATIA RIDDLE, BYLINE: Tech companies like Google and Microsoft, as well as the U.S. government, bet big on quantum computing in 2025. UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #1: Google Quantum AI is unveiling the first demonstration of verifiable quantum advantage. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Joining forces on quantum computing.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: Creating an entirely new architecture for quantum computing. In 2025, governments and technology companies continue to invest heavily in quantum computing, motivated by the vision of building machines capable of processing problems far beyond the reach of classical computers. From drug development to clean energy optimization, the promise of quantum computing lies in solving complex, multi-dimensional problems at unprecedented speeds. Tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and IBM, as well as governmental initiatives, are channeling significant resources into quantum hardware and algorithm research. Yet, while the progress is impressive, practical, everyday applications for the general public remain elusive. The challenge lies in the inherent complexity of quantum mechanics.

Unlike traditional computers operating in binary states, quantum computers leverage qubits, which exist in superposition—a combination of multiple states simultaneously. This ability to represent a range of possibilities enables quantum computers to simulate complex natural processes more effectively than classical machines. To understand the power of quantum computing, one must grasp the principle of superposition. Classical computers process information in a binary fashion—zeroes and ones, on and off. In contrast, qubits can represent zero and one simultaneously, existing in a probabilistic state until measured. This characteristic allows quantum computers to evaluate multiple solutions concurrently, simulating complex molecular interactions and probabilistic systems found in nature.

Educators like Dominic Walliman have used simplified analogies to illustrate this concept: envisioning a particle spinning in both directions at once, creating a cloud of probabilities rather than a fixed state. This visualization underscores why quantum systems have the theoretical potential to outperform classical systems in certain computations, especially those involving intricate variables, such as chemical reactions or material simulations. One of the landmark milestones in quantum computing is quantum supremacy, a term describing when a quantum computer performs a calculation that a classical computer cannot complete in a feasible time frame. Google achieved this in 2019 with its Sycamore processor, which solved a complex random circuit sampling benchmark in minutes—a task that would take the world’s fastest classical supercomputer thousands of years. Quantum computing is in its noisy, experimental stage and is powerful for research but still far from replacing classical systems. Most hype comes from misunderstandings, and quantum supremacy does not mean commercial readiness or broad industry impact yet.

The near‑term future is hybrid, with quantum and classical computing working together while focusing on niche, high‑value applications. For the last decade, quantum computing has been the glittering promise to technology’s crystal ball. It has been termed as the power to break the toughest encryptions, simulate nature with uncanny precision, and solve problems that classical computers would take years to crack. From boardrooms to research labs, the opinions have been resolute: the dawn of a new computing age is near. The picture is far more grounded as the technology continues to grow. Quantum computing is real, but so are its limits.

Although the promise is clear, most breakthroughs that could be called ‘game‑changing’ are still many years or even decades away. This raises the real questions: what is hype, what is fact, and where does the field truly stand today? Quantum computing may still be regarded by many IT leaders as a very niche technology, but broader business use cases may be just a few years away. While only a handful of companies have machines with logical qubits today, delegates at the Commercialising Quantum Computing conference in London were told that a machine with 100 logical qubits would offer quantum advantage... This means that, by then, a sufficiently powerful and stable quantum computer would start delivering business value better than what would be possible using high performance computing. Mark Jackson, senior quantum evangelist at Quantinuum, said the company was already using generative quantum artificial intelligence (AI).

In a fireside chat at the conference, Jackson spoke about the interaction between quantum computing and AI. It is largely acknowledged that a quantum computer is not good at providing a precise answer, such as if applied to big data analysis. But, according to Jackson, it shines when used for machine learning, which can be applied to identify a correct answer. Quantum-enhanced machine learning can process large datasets far quicker than conventional computers, especially when applied to detecting patterns. Daily stocks & crypto headlines, free to your inbox By continuing, I agree to the Market Data Terms of Service and Privacy Statement

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