University of Kwazulu-Natal

How Close Is The Singularity Stephen Deangelis

Bonisiwe Shabane
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how close is the singularity stephen deangelis

The AI singularity (sometimes referred to as artificial general intelligence (AGI)) is defined as the moment when machines become smarter than the humans who created them and sentient. The definition of “singularity” has roots in both mathematics and physical sciences (specifically, cosmology). Both uses are interesting to examine. A mathematical singularity is a point at which a function no longer works in a predictable way. In cosmology, it refers to an event horizon so spectacular or powerful that no useful data is transmitted from it. The most common cosmological examples are the big bang and black holes.

The common thread in these definitions of singularity is the impossibility of being able to predict anything useful about them or their consequences. A singularity changes everything. So, it was with much interest I recently read an article by freelance writer Darren Orf whose headline teased that the singularity might be achieved within the year.[1] That would be big news indeed. Orf writes, “Some researchers who’ve studied the emergence of machine intelligence think that the singularity — the theoretical point where machine surpasses man in intelligence — could occur within decades. On the other end of the prediction spectrum, there’s the CEO of Anthropic, who thinks we’re right on the threshold — give it about 6 more months or so.” The basis for Orf’s article... The analysis concluded, “Current surveys of AI researchers are predicting AGI around 2040.

However, just a few years before the rapid advancements in large language models (LLMs), scientists were predicting it around 2060. Entrepreneurs are even more bullish, predicting it around ~2030.” Orf writes, “Many experts believe AGI is inevitable.” And, as noted above, his spectrum of inevitability ranges from 6-months to decades. If, however, computer sentience is an essential part of the singularity, the spectrum should range from now to never. A dozen years ago, Yann LeCun, Vice President and Chief AI Scientist at Meta, stated, “I would be happy in my lifetime to build a machine as intelligent as a rat.”[2] Around the same... The late Paul G.

Allen, co-founder of Microsoft, and computer scientist Mark Greaves were skeptical of those claims. They wrote, “While we suppose this kind of singularity might one day occur, we don’t think it is near. In fact, we think it will be a very long time coming. … An adult brain is a finite thing, so its basic workings can ultimately be known through sustained human effort. But if the singularity is to arrive by 2045, it will take unforeseeable and fundamentally unpredictable breakthroughs, and not because the Law of Accelerating Returns made it the inevitable result of a specific exponential... Allen and Greaves asserted, “To achieve the singularity, it isn’t enough to just run today’s software faster.

We would also need to build smarter and more capable software programs. Creating this kind of advanced software requires a prior scientific understanding of the foundations of human cognition, and we are just scraping the surface of this. This prior need to understand the basic science of cognition is where the ‘singularity is near’ arguments fail to persuade us.” People predicting the inevitability of the singularity don’t believe understanding human cognition is... They argue that machine cognition could develop differently from human cognition. Reporter Alex Wilkins writes, “It isn’t always clear what AGI really means. Indeed, that is the subject of heated debate in the AI community, with some insisting it is a useful goal and others that it is a meaningless figment that betrays a misunderstanding of the...

‘It’s not really a scientific concept,’ says Melanie Mitchell at the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico.”[4] Nevertheless, like many other terms, AGI is here to stay and you will be reading a lot... AI expert Alex Goryachev writes, “I have no doubt that Artificial General Intelligence is coming soon, promising to revolutionize industries from healthcare to science and even our understanding of the universe. I'm genuinely excited about the transformative potential it holds. AGI will redefine industries and accelerate innovation at a pace we've never seen before.”[5] He adds, “In the midst of all this progress, I can't shake the thought: What does this mean for my... The excitement is undeniable, but the challenges we face are real.” The AI singularity (sometimes referred to as artificial general intelligence (AGI)) is defined as the moment when machines become smarter than the humans who created them and sentient.

The definition of “singularity” has roots in both mathematics and physical sciences (specifically, cosmology). Both uses are interesting to examine. A mathematical singularity is a point at which a function no longer works in a predictable way. In cosmology, it refers to an event horizon so spectacular or powerful that no useful data is transmitted from it. The most common cosmological examples are the big bang and black holes. The common thread in these definitions of singularity is the impossibility of being able to predict anything useful about them or their consequences.

A singularity changes everything. So, it was with much interest I recently read an article by freelance writer Darren Orf whose headline teased that the singularity might be achieved within the year.[1] That would be big news indeed. Orf writes, “Some researchers who’ve studied the emergence of machine intelligence think that the singularity — the theoretical point where machine surpasses man in intelligence — could occur within decades. On the other end of the prediction spectrum, there’s the CEO of Anthropic, who thinks we’re right on the threshold — give it about 6 more months or so.” The basis for Orf’s article... The analysis concluded, “Current surveys of AI researchers are predicting AGI around 2040. However, just a few years before the rapid advancements in large language models (LLMs), scientists were predicting it around 2060.

Entrepreneurs are even more bullish, predicting it around ~2030.” Orf writes, “Many experts believe AGI is inevitable.” And, as noted above, his spectrum of inevitability ranges from 6-months to decades. If, however, computer sentience is an essential part of the singularity, the spectrum should range from now to never. A dozen years ago, Yann LeCun, Vice President and Chief AI Scientist at Meta, stated, “I would be happy in my lifetime to build a machine as intelligent as a rat.”[2] Around the same... The late Paul G. Allen, co-founder of Microsoft, and computer scientist Mark Greaves were skeptical of those claims.

They wrote, “While we suppose this kind of singularity might one day occur, we don’t think it is near. In fact, we think it will be a very long time coming. … An adult brain is a finite thing, so its basic workings can ultimately be known through sustained human effort. But if the singularity is to arrive by 2045, it will take unforeseeable and fundamentally unpredictable breakthroughs, and not because the Law of Accelerating Returns made it the inevitable result of a specific exponential... Allen and Greaves asserted, “To achieve the singularity, it isn’t enough to just run today’s software faster. We would also need to build smarter and more capable software programs.

Creating this kind of advanced software requires a prior scientific understanding of the foundations of human cognition, and we are just scraping the surface of this. This prior need to understand the basic science of cognition is where the ‘singularity is near’ arguments fail to persuade us.” People predicting the inevitability of the singularity don’t believe understanding human cognition is... They argue that machine cognition could develop differently from human cognition. Reporter Alex Wilkins writes, “It isn’t always clear what AGI really means. Indeed, that is the subject of heated debate in the AI community, with some insisting it is a useful goal and others that it is a meaningless figment that betrays a misunderstanding of the... ‘It’s not really a scientific concept,’ says Melanie Mitchell at the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico.”[4] Nevertheless, like many other terms, AGI is here to stay and you will be reading a lot...

AI expert Alex Goryachev writes, “I have no doubt that Artificial General Intelligence is coming soon, promising to revolutionize industries from healthcare to science and even our understanding of the universe. I'm genuinely excited about the transformative potential it holds. AGI will redefine industries and accelerate innovation at a pace we've never seen before.”[5] He adds, “In the midst of all this progress, I can't shake the thought: What does this mean for my... The excitement is undeniable, but the challenges we face are real.” The AI singularity (sometimes referred to as artificial general intelligence (AGI)) is defined as the moment when machines become smarter than the humans who created them and sentient. The definition of “singularity” has roots in both mathematics and physical sciences (specifically, cosmology).

Both uses are interesting to examine. A mathematical singularity is a point at which a function no longer works in a predictable way. In cosmology, it refers to an event horizon so spectacular or powerful that no useful data is transmitted from it. The most common cosmological examples are the big bang and black holes. The common thread in these definitions of singularity is the impossibility of being able to predict anything useful about them or their consequences. A singularity changes everything.

So, it was with much interest I recently read an article by freelance writer Darren Orf whose headline teased that the singularity might be achieved within the year. [1] That would be big news indeed. Orf writes,“Some researchers who’ve studied the emergence of machine intelligence think that the singularity — the theoretical point where machine surpasses man in intelligence — could occur within decades. On the other end of the prediction spectrum, there’s the CEO of Anthropic, who thinks we’re right on the threshold— give it about 6 more months or so.” The basis for Orf’s article was... The analysis concluded, “Current surveys of AI researchers are predicting AGI around 2040. However, just a few years before the rapid advancements in large language models (LLMs), scientists were predicting it around 2060.

Entrepreneurs are even more bullish, predicting it around ~2030.” Orf writes, “Many experts believe AGI is inevitable.” And, as noted above, his spectrum of inevitability ranges from 6-months to decades. If, however, computer sentience is an essential part of the singularity, the spectrum should range from now to never. A dozen years ago, YannLeCun, Vice President and Chief AI Scientist at Meta, stated, “I would be happy in my lifetime to build a machine as intelligent as a rat. ”[2] Around the same time futurists like Vernor Vinge and Ray Kurzweil were predicting that a singularity would occur by mid-century. The late Paul G.

Allen, co-founder of Microsoft, and computer scientist Mark Greaves were skeptical of those claims. They wrote, “While we suppose this kind of singularity might one day occur, we don’t think it is near. In fact, we think it will be a very long time coming. An adult brain is a finite thing, so its basic workings can ultimately be known through sustained human effort. But if the singularity is to arrive by 2045, it will take unforeseeable and fundamentally unpredictable breakthroughs, and not because the Law of Accelerating Returns made it the inevitable result of a specific exponential... Allen and Greaves asserted, “To achieve the singularity, it isn’t enough to just run today’s software faster.

We would also need to build smarter and more capable software programs. Creating this kind of advanced software requires a prior scientific understanding of the foundations of human cognition, and we are just scraping the surface of this. This prior need to understand the basic science of cognition is where the ‘singularity is near’ arguments fail to persuade us.” People predicting the inevitability of the singularity don’t believe understanding human cognition is... They argue that machine cognition could develop differently from human cognition. Reporter Alex Wilkins writes, “It isn’t always clear what AGI really means. Indeed, that is the subject of heated debate in the AI community, with some insisting it is a useful goal and others that it is a meaningless figment that betrays a misunderstanding of the...

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