Doom Loop Scenario Global Growth Slowdown In 2026 Could Boost Gold

Bonisiwe Shabane

-Dec 27, 2025, 8:43 PM

doom loop scenario global growth slowdown in 2026 could boost gold

Ernest Hoffman is a Crypto and Market Reporter for Kitco News. He has over 15 years of experience as a writer, editor, broadcaster and producer for media, educational and cultural organizations. Ernest began working in market news in 2007, establishing the broadcast division of CEP News in Montreal, Canada, where he developed the fastest web-based audio news service in the world and produced economic news... He has a Bachelor's degree Specialization in Journalism from Concordia University. You can reach Ernest at 1-514-670-1339. Gold has shone brighter than ever this year, soaring over 60% and breaking more than 50 all-time records.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), these incredible stats have been mainly caused by heightened geopolitical and economic tensions, combined with the weakening of the US dollar and positive price momentum. Many experts believe that the gold price in 2026 will continue to rally and even hit a new record. However, instead of being fully optimistic, the WGC released an outlook report that analyzes how gold prices broadly reflect macroeconomic expectations, suggesting that it could be full of uncertainties. The report further provides four primary paths that gold may follow next year, namely: According to the WGC outlook report, the gold price today is mainly a reflection of macro consensus expectations which are highly related to economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy. If the current macro consensus remains stable, the global GDP stays around 2.7-2.8% in real terms, the Fed delivers around 75 basis points of additional rate cuts, and the US dollar edges higher, the...

In other words, the gold would be moving sideways. Kitco News reports on a potential 'doom loop' scenario in 2026, where slowing global growth could lead to a decrease in the USD and 10-year yields, with an increase in gold net positioning. The article suggests a focus on taking profits in gold and silver. ‘Doom loop’ scenario of slowing global growth in 2026 could see USD, 10-yr yields fall as gold net positioning materially increases – WGCKitco NEWS has a diverse team of journalists reporting on the economy,... Our goal is to help people make informed market decisions through in-depth reporting, daily market roundups, interviews with prominent industry figures, comprehensive coverage of important industry events and analyses of market-affecting developments. is a Crypto and Market Reporter for Kitco News.

He has over 15 years of experience as a writer, editor, broadcaster and producer for media, educational and cultural organizations. Ernest began working in market news in 2007, establishing the broadcast division of CEP News in Montreal, Canada, where he developed the fastest web-based audio news service in the world and produced economic news... He has a Bachelor's degree Specialization in Journalism from Concordia University. You can reach Ernest at 1-514-670-1339.The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy.

This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.It’s time to take profits on gold and silver, but ‘this is the... Gold Global Economy Economic Growth Financial Markets Market Analysis Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.

Gold has experienced a remarkable 2025, achieving over 50 all-time highs and returning over 60%.1 This performance has been supported by a combination of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker US dollar, and... Both investors and central banks have increased their allocations to gold, seeking diversification and stability. Looking to 2026, the outlook is shaped by ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty. The gold price broadly reflects macroeconomic consensus expectations and may remain rangebound if current conditions persist. However, taking cues from this year, 2026 will likely continue to surprise. If economic growth slows and interest rates fall further, gold could see moderate gains.

In a more severe downturn marked by rising global risks, gold could perform strongly. Conversely, a successful outcome from policies set by the Trump administration would accelerate economic growth and reduce geopolitical risk, leading to higher rates and a stronger US dollar, pushing gold lower. Additional factors, such as central bank demand and gold recycling trends, could also influence the market. Most importantly, gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier and source of stability remains key amid continued market volatility. Login or register to read the text, view charts and download the files.. Registration is free, quick and easy.

It gives you access to all downloads on this website. What's bad for the world could be good for gold again in 2026. Pic: Getty Images Gold could rise as much as 15-30% in 2026 if the world economy falls into a “doom loop”, according to the World Gold Council. While it doesn’t tip prices, the industry body remains optimistic about the outlook for bullion despite clocking more than 50 record highs this year and sitting close to its peak at US$4206/oz. The laws of gravity suggest what goes up must go down, but after a ~61% run this year – the best since 1979 – there’s still no suggestion the fundamentals underpinning record gold prices...

To be clear, the doom loop is just one of three potential scenarios the WGC is modelling. The World Gold Council (WGC) has outlined three potential trajectories for gold in 2026, with its most dramatic scenario—a ‘doom loop’ for the global economy—creating conditions for a 15% to 30% appreciation in the... This forecast follows a year where gold has already established more than 50 record highs, signaling that the fundamental drivers supporting its current valuation show little sign of abating. In its latest market analysis, the WGC models a trifecta of outcomes for 2026. The most aggressive forecast, termed the ‘doom loop’, anticipates a significant market downturn, prompting aggressive interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Such a flight to safety, compounded by geopolitical stress, would provide exceptionally strong tailwinds for bullion. A second, more moderate scenario involves a mild economic slowdown with lower U.S. interest rates, which could still yield a respectable 5% to 15% gain. Conversely, a bearish ‘reflation’ scenario—in which economic growth strengthens unexpectedly, pushing yields and the U.S. dollar higher—could trigger a price correction between 5% and 20%. The WGC report underscores a critical 2025 trend: the market’s search for portfolio sustainability amidst pronounced instability.

Geopolitical risk and macroeconomic uncertainty have been outsized contributors to gold’s performance. The WGC’s own attribution model credits 12 percentage points of gold’s 2025 return directly to these factors. This highlights the metal’s primary function as a safe-haven asset, insulating investment portfolios from the volatility of equities and currency fluctuations, a characteristic that is expected to persist into 2026. For US-based jewelry retailers and investors, the WGC’s outlook presents a complex calculus. A ‘doom loop’ scenario, while driving up the base cost of raw materials, would simultaneously increase the intrinsic value of existing inventory and amplify gold’s appeal to consumers as a tangible store of wealth. This could shift purchasing patterns towards pieces with substantial heft and high-karat compositions.

A correction, on the other hand, presents a strategic buying opportunity for replenishing stock, though it could temporarily devalue current holdings. The report serves as a critical advisory for inventory management and marketing strategy through the next fiscal year. Softer global growth, looser monetary policy, and ongoing geopolitical risks are more likely to support gold prices than weaken them in 2026, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). The Council added that investment demand, central bank purchases, and recycling trends could offer further strength, although high uncertainty and notable headwinds remain. In its 2026 Gold Outlook, the WGC highlighted gold’s exceptional performance in 2025, with the metal setting more than 50 all-time highs and rising over 60%. Analysts noted that this surge was driven by elevated geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker U.S.

dollar, and strong price momentum. Both investors and central banks increased their gold allocations in search of diversification and stability. Looking ahead, analysts said geoeconomic uncertainty will continue to shape the 2026 landscape. They explained that the current gold price largely reflects the market’s macroeconomic expectations and could remain rangebound if conditions hold steady. However, drawing from 2025’s dramatic movements, they warned that 2026 could again deliver unexpected outcomes. Slower economic growth and lower interest rates would likely give gold moderate upside, while a severe downturn accompanied by rising global risks could drive strong gains.

Conversely, if the Trump administration’s policies deliver stronger economic growth and reduced geopolitical tension, higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar could exert downward pressure on gold. Central bank demand, along with gold recycling activity, may also influence the market. Above all, the WGC emphasized gold’s continued importance as a portfolio diversifier and stabilizer amid persistent volatility. The World Gold Council’s 2026 outlook warns of a possible “doom loop” global slowdown that could send yields and the U.S. dollar tumbling—while gold surges up to 30%.

With geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty on the rise, gold and silver remain essential assets for wealth protection. Frank Balm breaks down the scenarios ahead and why now is the time to take action before the herd catches on. If you thought 2025 was wild, buckle up. Because the World Gold Council (WGC) just released their 2026 forecast—and it's sending shivers through the financial world. They’re calling it a potential “doom loop”, and if that doesn’t set off alarm bells, it should. Now I’ve been in the finance game for over four decades—long enough to see how these “official” outlooks often sugarcoat what’s coming.

But this report? It cuts through the noise. And let me tell you, it confirms what many of us in the gold and silver world have been warning about: we’re staring down the barrel of a serious global breakdown—and only those holding... Let’s start with where we are. In 2025, gold didn’t just perform—it dominated. Over 50 all-time highs, up more than 60%, and one of the best years for the yellow metal since Nixon pulled the plug on the gold standard in 1971.

When trust in governments, markets, and currencies crumbles, gold doesn’t flinch. It shines.

Doom Loop Scenario Global Growth Slowdown In 2026 Could Boost Gold

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Ernest Hoffman Is A Crypto And Market Reporter For Kitco

According To The World Gold Council (WGC), These Incredible Stats

In Other Words, The Gold Would Be Moving Sideways. Kitco

He Has Over 15 Years Of Experience As A Writer,

This Article Is Strictly For Informational Purposes Only. It Is