Ai Singularity Countdown Scientists Pinpoint 2040 As Artificial

Bonisiwe Shabane

-Dec 27, 2025, 9:44 PM

ai singularity countdown scientists pinpoint 2040 as artificial

A seismic shift in human civilisation is approaching faster than previously imagined, according to a startling new scientific study that has calculated the precise timeframe for the AI singularity. Researchers from leading AI institutions have analysed survey data from over 2,700 AI experts to determine when artificial intelligence will achieve and then surpass human-level capabilities. The findings point to a technological watershed moment that could arrive within most of our lifetimes. The study reveals a two-stage progression towards the singularity: While there's remarkable agreement among researchers about the general timeframe, significant debate persists about the potential consequences. The scientific community remains deeply divided between those who foresee unprecedented benefits for humanity and others who warn of existential risks that could threaten our very existence.

"This isn't science fiction anymore," the study authors note. "We're talking about a fundamental transformation of human society that requires immediate preparation and serious ethical consideration." Predictions on the dawn of the AI singularity vary wildly but scientists generally say it will come before 2040, according to new analysis, slashing 20 years off previous predictions. When you purchase through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. Here’s how it works. The rise of artificial general intelligence (AGI) — an artificial intelligence (AI) system with superhuman intelligence that can perform well at various tasks — is a matter of when, not if, according to a...

The updated analysis, conducted Feb. 18 by Cem Dilmegani, principal analyst at AIMultiple Research, has combed through approximately 8,600 predictions from scientists, AI experts and entrepreneurs between 2009 and 2023 to understand when experts believe it may happen. A subsection of the analysis encompassed 10 surveys that queried a total of 5,288 AI researchers and experts. Based on an averaging of the data, there's a 50% probability that we would achieve human-level intelligence in machines at some point between 2040 and 2061, the analysis found. For 300,000 years, Homo sapiens sat uncontested at the top of the intelligence chart. With modern AI, that position is no longer guaranteed.

A growing share of experts now treat the singularity-not as a question of if-but when. A recent synthesis by AIMultiple combined 8,590 predictions from scientists and entrepreneurs. The dates keep moving earlier as AI systems clear milestones faster than expected. Leaders in the field now put serious probability mass on this decade. In math and physics, a singularity is a breakdown in known laws. In technology, the term-popularized by Vernor Vinge and Ray Kurzweil-refers to the point where machine intelligence accelerates beyond human control.

Many take this to mean an AI more capable than humanity as a whole. Analysts often include traits like human-level reasoning, superhuman speed, near-perfect recall, and possibly machine consciousness. The last point is contested because consciousness lacks a precise definition. Since 2022, capability jumps have pulled timelines forward. The core driver: model scaling and efficiency improvements that many did not forecast at this pace. Gear-obsessed editors choose every product we review.

We may earn commission if you buy from a link. Why Trust Us? Here’s what you’ll learn when you read this story: You don’t exactly become a world-renowned futurist by making safe predictions. And while some of these past predictions haven’t exactly come to pass (Back to the Future Part II, specifically), these ideas help expand our thoughts on what exactly the future might look like. And no one makes futuristic predictions quite like Ray Kurzweil.

An American computer scientist-turned-futurist, Kurzweil has long believed that humanity is headed toward what’s known as “the singularity,” when man and machine merge. In 1999, Kurzweil theorized that artificial general intelligence would be achieved once humanity could achieve a technology capable of a trillion calculations per second, which he pegged to occur in 2029. We analyzed 8,590 scientists’, leading entrepreneurs’, and the community’s predictions for quick answers on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) / singularity timeline: Explore key predictions on AGI from experts like Sam Altman and Demis Hassabis, insights from major AI surveys on AGI timelines, and arguments for and against the feasibility of AGI: This timeline outlines the anticipated year of the singularity, based on insights gathered from 15 surveys, including responses from 8,590 AI researchers, scientists, and participants in prediction markets: As you can see above, survey respondents are increasingly expecting the singularity to occur earlier than previously expected.

Below you can see the studies and predictions that make up this timeline, or skip to understanding the singularity. When we founded Singularity 2030 Magazine, we made a radical prediction: that the singularity would emerge by the year 2030. At the time, it was a bold assertion—met with curiosity, skepticism, and hope. Today, that forecast is no longer speculative—it is being echoed by the very institutions building the future. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)—once relegated to speculative fiction—is now central to safety blueprints issued by the world’s leading AI labs. In April 2024, Shane Legg, co-founder of Google DeepMind, made headlines by predicting that the singularity could arrive by 2030, marking the most explicit timeline yet for a technological tipping point.

Supported by DeepMind's 145-page AGI Safety Report, this prediction has shifted the narrative from distant possibility to urgent preparation. For the first time, those at the frontier of AI development are aligning their strategies to mitigate risks that may emerge not decades away, but within the next few years. The singularity refers to a moment when AI systems surpass human intelligence across all domains and begin to improve themselves recursively, triggering rapid and irreversible transformations across society. Shane Legg defines it succinctly: "The moment machines are more capable than us at all tasks—well, that’s the singularity. And we could be within a decade of that."

This is no longer a speculative future but a civilizational milestone with profound implications. Once reached, the singularity could redefine power, control, and even human agency. After this point, humanity may no longer be the dominant force in its own evolutionary trajectory. A new analysis from AIMultiple reveals that nearly 8,600 expert predictions suggest artificial general intelligence (AGI) may arrive much sooner than expected. While many estimate a timeline around 2040, some tech leaders believe it could happen within the next six months. Artificial intelligence is advancing faster than ever, and now scientists and industry leaders are divided on one big question when will AI become smarter than humans?

A recent report by research group AIMultiple analysed predictions from 8,590 scientists, entrepreneurs, and AI experts. The goal was to understand when artificial general intelligence (AGI) and the singularity, the point where machines surpass human intelligence. Some experts believe we are still decades away. According to the report, most scientists expect AGI around 2040, while others had earlier predicted it by 2060. However, the arrival of large language models (LLMs), like ChatGPT, has changed the outlook. Many tech entrepreneurs are now predicting that AGI could come by 2030 or even sooner.

One of the most surprising views came from the CEO of Anthropic. He suggested that the singularity could happen within just six months. This extreme view is based on how quickly machine learning models are developing. The technological singularity, often simply called the singularity,[1] is a hypothetical event in which technological growth accelerates beyond human control, producing unpredictable changes in human civilization.[2][3] According to the most popular version of the... J. Good's intelligence explosion model of 1965, an upgradable intelligent agent could eventually enter a positive feedback loop of successive self-improvement cycles; more intelligent generations would appear more and more rapidly, causing an explosive increase...

Some scientists, including Stephen Hawking, have expressed concern that artificial superintelligence could result in human extinction.[5][6] The consequences of a technological singularity and its potential benefit or harm to the human race have been... Prominent technologists and academics dispute the plausibility of a technological singularity and associated artificial intelligence "explosion", including Paul Allen,[7] Jeff Hawkins,[8] John Holland, Jaron Lanier, Steven Pinker,[8] Theodore Modis,[9] Gordon Moore,[8] and Roger Penrose.[10]... Stuart J. Russell and Peter Norvig observe that in the history of technology, improvement in a particular area tends to follow an S curve: it begins with accelerating improvement, then levels off without continuing upward into... Alan Turing, often regarded as the father of modern computer science, laid a crucial foundation for contemporary discourse on the technological singularity. His pivotal 1950 paper "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" argued that a machine could, in theory, exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to or indistinguishable from that of a human.[12] However, machines capable of performing at or...

The Hungarian–American mathematician John von Neumann (1903–1957) is the first known person to discuss a coming "singularity" in technological progress.[14][15] Stanislaw Ulam reported in 1958 that an earlier discussion with von Neumann "centered on...

Ai Singularity Countdown Scientists Pinpoint 2040 As Artificial

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