University of Kwazulu-Natal

12 Predictions For 2026 Tomasz Tunguz Tomtunguz Com

Bonisiwe Shabane
-
12 predictions for 2026 tomasz tunguz tomtunguz com

Every year I make a list of predictions & score last year’s predictions. 2025 was a good year : I scored 7.85 out of 10. I will release the scoring tomorrow. For today, here are my predictions for 2026 : This has already happened with consumers. Waymo rides cost 31% more than Uber on average, yet demand keeps growing.

1 Riders prefer the safety & reliability of autonomous vehicles. For rote business tasks, agents will command a similar premium as companies factor in onboarding, recruiting, training, & management costs. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe, & Databricks IPO, with SpaceX & OpenAI ranking among the ten largest offerings ever. The pent-up demand from 4+ years of drought finally breaks. Fear of disruption by fast-growing AI systems drives defensive acquisitions exceeding $25b as incumbents buy rather than build. Multimodal models & world/state-space models demand new data architectures.

Vector databases grow revenue explosively as they become the connective tissue between foundation models & enterprise data. According to METR, AI task duration doubles every 7 months. 2 Current frontier models reliably complete tasks taking people about an hour. Extrapolating this trend, by late 2026, AI agents will autonomously execute 8+ hour workstreams, fundamentally changing how companies staff projects. 10. The data center buildout reaches 3.5% of US GDP in 2026.

The scale of investment mirrors the historical expansion of the railroads. The only factor that slows overall building is perceived risk within the credit market, particularly in the private credit market. The massive growth in that asset class suddenly shows strains of increasing default rates, creating a potential bottleneck for the most capital-intensive infrastructure projects. — Read on tomtunguz.com/2026-predictions/ Δ document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Every year I make a list of predictions & score last year’s predictions.

2025 was a good year : I scored 7.85 out of 10. I will release the scoring tomorrow. 1. Businesses pay more for AI agents than people for the first time. This has already happened with consumers. Waymo rides cost 31% more than Uber on average, yet demand keeps growing.

1 Riders prefer the safety & reliability of autonomous vehicles. For rote business tasks, agents will command a similar premium as companies factor in onboarding, recruiting, training, & management costs. 2. 2026 becomes a record year for liquidity. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe, & Databricks IPO, with SpaceX & OpenAI ranking among the ten largest offerings ever. The pent-up demand from 4+ years of drought finally breaks.

Fear of disruption by fast-growing AI systems drives defensive acquisitions exceeding $25b as incumbents buy rather than build. Original text by Tomasz Tunguz , founder of Theory Ventures. Every year at the end of the year, Tomasz Tunguz, founder of Theory Ventures, systematically reviews his predictions for the past year and makes new judgments for the coming year based on them. In his review of 2025, Tunguz gave himself a high score of 7.85 out of 10 on his ten predictions (one point each). That year saw profound structural changes in areas such as artificial intelligence, capital markets, data infrastructure, and crypto finance. These changes not only validated most of the predictions but also laid a clear foundation for development trends in 2026.

This article reviews the market events of 2025 and looks ahead to twelve major trends for 2026. PANews has compiled and edited these two articles. Prediction 1: The IPO market will experience a boom. Score: 0.6 Overall, the IPO market saw a significant recovery in 2025. A total of 46 software companies went public, raising a total of $12.3 billion, significantly higher than the 21 companies and $3.8 billion in 2024, but still far below the scale of the peak...

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author! Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use! Practice here first or read more on our help page! This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features! Reimagine your AI development with a data-centric platform. Learn how to use Sama to transform data into advanced AI applications An automotive OEM needed annotations for millions of samples for semantic segmentation, object tracking, and object detection. An automotive OEM needed annotations for millions of samples for semantic segmentation, object tracking, and object detection. A market leader in online retail delivery struggled to maintain the accuracy of its extensive product catalog, which included millions of items from multiple retailers.

They relied on their foundational model to generate new product listings, including images and details, but it often produced errors. AI has become the single largest driver of revenue spend for venture capitalists. Today’s guest has sat on the board for many companies and currently serves as a General Partner at Theory Ventures. Tom Tunguz joins us to share his predictions for the future of software along with many other insights from his research into AI, including the importance of being at the forefront of AI developments... Scoring the 2025 technology & venture capital predictions. A review of the IPO market, Google's AI surge, voice interfaces, VC investment levels, & data infrastructure consolidation.

12 predictions for 2026 : AI agents out-earn people, the web flips to agent-first design, stablecoins hit 30% of global payments, & Cloudflare becomes the gatekeeper for agentic payments. Analyzing hundreds of tech & VC podcasts through MotherDuck's serverless data warehouse reveals mid-week publishing dominates & content depth has converged. Gemini 3 Flash underprices state-of-the-art models by 70-79% while delivering similar performance across 20 benchmarks. OpenRouter data reveals a market splitting in two : enterprises pay for precision in coding workflows while consumers flock to free alternatives for roleplay. Analysis of pricing power, use cases & retention across AI providers. It’s always good to see Tomasz Tunguz's predictions for the year - and look out for his honest analysis of last yeat’s predictions.

This year, I am all onboard with 3,4,6,7,9 and 11. What are they? Read his post to find out ... https://lnkd.in/gRnmp_WR Donald Farmer What are your thoughts on web design being completely re-imagined and optimized for AI agents.. Do you think we will see fewer humans actually going to webpages themselves and more AI Agents, and if so, does that mean that UX/UI need to be completely reimagined for Agentic AI?

On 9, that's an interesting point. Not just for databases, but everything we have designed in IT this far has been to the limits of human usage patterns. We're entering a new frontier in resiliency requirements

People Also Search

Every Year I Make A List Of Predictions & Score

Every year I make a list of predictions & score last year’s predictions. 2025 was a good year : I scored 7.85 out of 10. I will release the scoring tomorrow. For today, here are my predictions for 2026 : This has already happened with consumers. Waymo rides cost 31% more than Uber on average, yet demand keeps growing.

1 Riders Prefer The Safety & Reliability Of Autonomous Vehicles.

1 Riders prefer the safety & reliability of autonomous vehicles. For rote business tasks, agents will command a similar premium as companies factor in onboarding, recruiting, training, & management costs. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe, & Databricks IPO, with SpaceX & OpenAI ranking among the ten largest offerings ever. The pent-up demand from 4+ years of drought finally breaks. Fear of disrupt...

Vector Databases Grow Revenue Explosively As They Become The Connective

Vector databases grow revenue explosively as they become the connective tissue between foundation models & enterprise data. According to METR, AI task duration doubles every 7 months. 2 Current frontier models reliably complete tasks taking people about an hour. Extrapolating this trend, by late 2026, AI agents will autonomously execute 8+ hour workstreams, fundamentally changing how companies sta...

The Scale Of Investment Mirrors The Historical Expansion Of The

The scale of investment mirrors the historical expansion of the railroads. The only factor that slows overall building is perceived risk within the credit market, particularly in the private credit market. The massive growth in that asset class suddenly shows strains of increasing default rates, creating a potential bottleneck for the most capital-intensive infrastructure projects. — Read on tomtu...

2025 Was A Good Year : I Scored 7.85 Out

2025 was a good year : I scored 7.85 out of 10. I will release the scoring tomorrow. 1. Businesses pay more for AI agents than people for the first time. This has already happened with consumers. Waymo rides cost 31% more than Uber on average, yet demand keeps growing.