Mckinsey Warns Ai And Robots Could Automate 40 Percent Of Us Jobs By 2

Bonisiwe Shabane
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mckinsey warns ai and robots could automate 40 percent of us jobs by 2

A new report from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) suggests that artificial intelligence and robotics could, in theory, automate more than half of all work currently done in the United States – and put... In its study, Agents, robots, and us: Skill partnerships in the age of AI, MGI says that “today’s technologies could theoretically automate more than half of current US work hours”. The authors stress that this is “not a forecast of job losses” but an indication of how profoundly work could change as “work in the future will be a partnership between people, agents, and... The report estimates that “currently demonstrated technologies could, in theory, automate activities accounting for about 57 percent of US work hours today”. At current capability levels, the authors say agents – software systems that automate non-physical work – could perform tasks that occupy “44 percent of US work hours today”, while robots could in principle handle... Work in the future will be a partnership between people, agents, and robots—all powered by artificial intelligence.

While much of the current public debate revolves around whether AI will lead to sweeping job losses, our focus is on how it will change the very building blocks of work—the skills that underpin... Our research suggests that although people may be shifted out of some work activities, many of their skills will remain essential. They will also be central in guiding and collaborating with AI, a change that is already redefining many roles across the economy. In this research, we use “agents” and “robots” as broad, practical terms to describe all machines that can automate nonphysical and physical work, respectively. Many different technologies perform these functions, some based on AI and others not, with the boundaries between them fluid and changing. Using the terms in this expansive way lets us analyze how automation reshapes work overall.1Our analysis considers a broader range of automation technologies than the narrow definition of agents commonly used in the AI...

For more on how we define the term, see the Glossary. This report builds on McKinsey’s long-running research on automation and the future of work. Earlier studies examined individual activities, while this analysis also looks at how AI will transform entire workflows and what this means for skills. New forms of collaboration are emerging, creating skill partnerships between people and AI that raise demand for complementary human capabilities. Although the analysis focuses on the United States, many of the patterns it reveals—and their implications for employers, workers, and leaders—apply broadly to other advanced economies. We find that currently demonstrated technologies could, in theory, automate activities accounting for about 57 percent of US work hours today.2Our analysis focuses exclusively on paid productive hours in the US workforce, encompassing full-time...

We assess only the share of time awake that is spent on work-related activities, totaling roughly 45 percent of waking hours. Our analysis excludes time spent on unpaid tasks and leisure, but agents and robots could be used in related activities to support productivity and personal well-being. This estimate reflects the technical potential for change in what people do, not a forecast of job losses. As these technologies take on more complex sequences of tasks, people will remain vital to make them work effectively and do what machines cannot. Our assessment reflects today’s capabilities, which will continue to evolve, and adoption may take decades. Artificial intelligence is no longer just a futuristic concept—it is now reshaping the American workplace at a scale few predicted.

A major new analysis from the McKinsey Global Institute reveals that AI and robotics could automate up to 57% of U.S. working hours, potentially affecting nearly 40% of American jobs. What makes this report striking is that the roles most vulnerable to automation are not only blue-collar jobs, but an enormous range of white-collar, office-based, analytical, and administrative roles long considered safe from automation. From paralegals to programmers, administrative assistants to financial clerks—tasks once considered “too cognitive” or “too complex” for machines are now increasingly handled by AI systems. This article explores who is at risk, why the shift is happening now, which tasks AI can already perform, and how the U.S. workforce can prepare for the largest job transformation since the industrial revolution.

According to McKinsey, modern AI models and robotics are now capable of technically automating 57% of all work activities in the United States. This does not mean 57% of jobs will disappear—but it does mean that most roles contain tasks that AI could take over if companies redesign workflows around automation. Many of today’s jobs are under “automation pressure,” meaning: The research finds that 57% of US work hours could be automated today if organisations redesigned workflows around the capabilities of AI agents and robots. The analysis suggests that nearly half of American jobs sit within occupations facing significant disruption from automation. Around 40% of the roles most vulnerable involve drafting, information processing and routine reasoning — tasks at which AI agents already excel.

Hiring in some of these fields, including paralegals, office administrators and even computer programmers, has slowed as companies assess the potential for AI to absorb large portions of their workload. Physical roles are also at risk. Jobs performed in hazardous environments, such as warehouse operations or machinery handling, are highly likely to be replaced by robotics as adoption costs fall and safety concerns increase. Conversely, McKinsey found that roughly one-third of American jobs are difficult to automate because they require deeply human qualities — from empathy to dexterity. Nursing and social care are among the safest professions, with 70% of tasks requiring physical presence, compassion and intuitive decision-making that machines struggle to replicate. Maintenance and repair roles, which require judgment, adaptability and work in unpredictable environments, are also hard to automate.

The report — Agents, Robots and Us — emphasises that the biggest barrier to large-scale automation is not technological capability but policy decisions, investment and companies’ willingness to overhaul entire workflows rather than automate... McKinsey estimates that redesigning work with AI in mind could generate $2.9 trillion a year in economic value by 2030. About 40 per cent of American jobs could be replaced by artificial intelligence, according to a report by the McKinsey Global Institute. The American consultancy’s analysis found that robots and AI agents could automate more than half of US work hours, both manual and cognitive, using technology that is available today, if companies redesigned how they... Most of the roles at risk involve the kinds of drafting, processing information and routine reasoning that AI agents can do. Hiring is slowing in some such jobs, such as among paralegals, administrative and office support workers and programmers, the research found.

Similarly, dangerous, physical jobs, in warehouses or operating machines, are most likely to be replaced by robots, McKinsey said. Conversely, a third of US jobs would be difficult to replace with AI because they have uniquely human attributes, such as nursing, the analysis found. Some 70 per cent of the tasks performed by carers and other healthcare workers require the kind of physical presence, empathy, care and dexterity that machines cannot replicate. Neurodiversity at Work 2025 Conference, Online 04 December 2025More information Evolving Workplaces: Planning The AI-Enabled Workplace, San Francisco 09 December 2025More information 'Truth in the Tangle: Navigating the Complexity of Sustainability', Online 10 December 2025More information

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For more on how we define the term, see the Glossary. This report builds on McKinsey’s long-running research on automation and the future of work. Earlier studies examined individual activities, while this analysis also looks at how AI will transform entire workflows and what this means for skills. New forms of collaboration are emerging, creating skill partnerships between people and AI that rais...

We Assess Only The Share Of Time Awake That Is

We assess only the share of time awake that is spent on work-related activities, totaling roughly 45 percent of waking hours. Our analysis excludes time spent on unpaid tasks and leisure, but agents and robots could be used in related activities to support productivity and personal well-being. This estimate reflects the technical potential for change in what people do, not a forecast of job losses...

A Major New Analysis From The McKinsey Global Institute Reveals

A major new analysis from the McKinsey Global Institute reveals that AI and robotics could automate up to 57% of U.S. working hours, potentially affecting nearly 40% of American jobs. What makes this report striking is that the roles most vulnerable to automation are not only blue-collar jobs, but an enormous range of white-collar, office-based, analytical, and administrative roles long considered...